Knowledge of random events and chance in people with gambling problems: an item analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the items of two scales, the Random Events Knowledge Test (REKT) and the Chance Test, and examines their relationship with problem gambling (N = 1375). Using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, the REKT was broken down into four sub-scales: Due to Win, Counterintuitive Nature of random chance, Odds Do Not Improve, and Biases and Wins. The Chance Test was broken down into three sub-scales: abstract Odds, Table Odds, and Chance Odds. These sub-scales were regressed onto of problem gambling severity and revealed that more knowledge about random chance on all sub-scales of the REKT and Abstract Odds from the Chance Test were negatively related to problem gambling. On the other hand, we found that higher score on the Table Odds and Chance Odds from the Chance Test were positively related to problem gambling. The results illustrate that compared to people who do not have a gambling problem, problem gamblers have a more accurate understanding of some aspects of the chances of winning specific games, but have a poorer understanding of various implications of the independence of random events. The findings suggest potential strategies for the prevention and treatment of problem gambling.

KEYWORDS:

• Erroneous beliefs
• problem gambling
• odds
• random chance
• random events knowledge test
• chance test
• independence of random events
• law of large numbers

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Acknowledgements

The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and may not necessarily reflect the opinion of the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, University of Toronto, or any of the funding agencies.

Funding sources

This secondary analysis had no direct funding. The studies from which this project’s data was drawn were funded by a grant (1) Turner from the National Center for Responsible Gambling (NCRG; Now called International Centre for Responsible Gambling), (2) three grants (#90, #2632 and #2277) from The Ontario Problem Gambling Research Centre (OPGRC now called the Gambling Research Exchange GREO), and (3) 2 grants (RFP #99-044) from the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care (OMOHLTC). In addition, Salary and infrastructure at Centre for Addiction and Mental Health was supported by OMOHLTC.

Constraints on publishing

No constraints on publishing were declared by the authors in relation to this manuscript.

Competing interests

None of the authors declare any conflict of interest. Dr. Turner has received funding from the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care (OMOHLTC), Gambling Research Exchange GREO, Now called International Centre for Responsible Gambling (NCRG), and from Ontario Lottery and Gaming (OLG). In all cases, the contract included guarantees of independence and intellectual property rights for the researcher. Furthermore, the funders made no attempt to influence the study at any point. Turner has also acted as a consultant on gambling problems for various government and legal enities. In terms of non-financial conflicts, Turner is also the Editor of the Journal of Gambling Issues. In addition, Turner has reviewed grant applications and articles for publication, and helped develop treatment and prevention materials for problem gambling. All other authors certify that they have no affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest or nonfinancial interest in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.

Preregistration statement

No preregistration was declared by the authors in relation to this manuscript.

Data availability statement

The de-identified data file used in these analyses is available upon request from the corresponding author to any qualified researcher. Please contact the first author at ([email protected]) for further information.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Nigel E. Turner

Nigel E Turner Ph.D., is a researcher scientist at CAMH. He has numerous publications on addictions with a focus on problem gambling. He is also the editor of the Journal of Gambling Issues.

Mark van der Maas

Mark van der Maas, Ph.D., is an assistant professor at Rutger’s University. Dr. van der Maas is a very skilled data analyst familiar with regression, logistic regression, and structural equation modelling and also has experience in qualitative analysis.

Jing Shi

Jing Shi, Ph.D., is a registered occupational therapist a postdoctoral fellow at CAMH who specializes in behavioural addictions and has experience conducting qualitative and quantitative research. Shi is also assistant clinical professor (adjunct) at McMaster University.

Eleanor Liu

Eleanor Liu, Ph.D., is a Research Coordinator at CAMH. She completed her doctorate in problem gambling. Her research interests include cognition, decision making, suicide, physician attitudes, addiction and clinical trials.

Masood Zangeneh

Masood Zangeneh, Ph.D., is Professor in the Faculty of Liberal Arts & Sciences and Innovative Learning, Humber College Institute of Technology and Advanced Learning. He is also the editor of the International Journal of Mental Health and Additions.

Sarah Cool

Sarah Cool holds an Honours BASc. degree in Psychology from the University of Guelph. She currently works in special education at the Dufferin-Peel Catholic District School Board and is a research volunteer with the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health.

Ernest Molah

Ernest Molah, was a student in the research analyst program at Humber college and worked at CAMH as a placement student.

Tara Elton Marshall

Tara Elton-Marshall, Ph.D., is a research scientist at CAMH. She has numerous publications on addictions including substance use, problem gambling and video gaming.