The pitfalls and promises of climate adaptation planning

Abstract

Global climate-change adaptation modelling from sources such as the United Nations Development Programme has emerged over the past few years to guide decision-making. In 2007/2008, Ku-ring-gai Council considered the various methods and selected two for review to inform Council's own adaptation plan. The models reviewed were the Australian Greenhouse Office model and the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) model. These models were promoted as suitable for local government decision-making. The review found both models can identify key risks, and prioritise risks according to their magnitude. However, the capacity of these models to analyse effective and efficient adaptation appears limited, as they address only the first part of a very complex planning scenario. To plan effective risk-management options, a model needs to be able to evaluate the effect an option may have on reducing risk and highlight where an option may result in unintended consequences. In addition, the model must identify trade-offs or impacts, inform whether a response will increase resilience or reduce vulnerability across financial, social and environmental sectors, and satisfy due diligence in regard to the ecologically sustainable development principles. Both models have useful qualities and provide a basis on which to commence adaptation planning. However, the ICLEI model appears to be a superior guide to adaptation planning. Further development and refinement of these methods are required before a systematic, positive course can be charted for adaptation in local government.

Keywords:

• climate change
• resilience
• vulnerability
• risk
• adaptation
• triple bottom line
• ESD