Scenarios for the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels in Australia in the absence of CO₂ removal

ABSTRACT

The rapid growth of renewable electricity generation in Australia raises the prospect of substituting for all fossil fuel use, including their use in transport and heating, by 2050 or even 2040. This article uses simple scenarios to identify the combinations of trends in total final energy consumption and renewable energy generation that together could result in the complete substitution of renewable energy for fossil fuels for energy generation by 2040 and 2050. It finds that, at current or increasing levels of energy consumption, in the absence of substantial CO₂ removal, it is very unlikely that renewable energy could substitute for all fossil energy consumption by 2040 and 2050, even if renewable energy grows exponentially. Because time is of the essence in addressing the climate crisis, energy consumption must be reduced substantially while transitioning to renewables.

KEYWORDS:

• Renewable energy
• energy consumption
• energy scenarios
• energy policy

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Batteries are appropriate and affordable for storage of a few hours at most; utility-scale batteries can be built and installed in months. Pumped hydro is appropriate and affordable for storage of days or more; it requires several years to plan and construct.