Sinking into the ocean? Climate change risks and second home planning

Abstract

Second homes are essential resources for tourism and recreation. Climate change is projected to transform tourism geographies and threaten economic and recreational activities. Based on building and housing register data and national models for climate change hazards, this paper investigates whether second homes in Denmark are potentially affected. Five different hazards are used to describe climate risk based on the RCP8.5 scenario: sea level rise, storm surge events, coastal erosion, flooding from watercourses, and terrestrial groundwater. It is estimated that between 2020 and 2070 a significant number of second homes will potentially be affected by one or more of these hazards, with terrestrial groundwater being the most frequent. GIS-analysis shows the detailed geographical distribution of the affected second homes, while regional grouping highlights the most affected regions. A compound risk analysis demonstrates that a significant proportion (approximately 25%) of the Danish second homes will be affected by either one or more hazards. The analysis thereby highlights how amenity rich geographies are threatened by climate change, which could cause these areas to become risk prone. This provides a background for discussing the implications for land use policy of transforming geographies. The article highlights a need for strategic planning and active engagement with second to protect the recreational potential of second homes and local economies in coastal zones.

Keywords:

• Climate scenarios
• coastal tourism
• coastal transformation
• mitigation
• strategy

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the reviewers and editors of this journal, whose comments have improved the article. This research was made possible thanks to funding from the Danish philanthropic association, Realdania.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Rasmus Nedergård Steffansen

Rasmus Nedergård Steffansen is an assistant professor at Aalborg University. His research is focusing on sustainable spatial developments and especially the intersection between planning knowledge, planning actors and user´s perception on environmental and climate issues.

Jan Kloster Staunstrup

Jan Kloster Staunstrup is an Associate professor at Aalborg University. His research focuses on GIS modeling and visualization with a focus on property-based and climate-related spatial data.

Michael Tophøj Sørensen

Michael Tophøj Sørensen is associate professor at Aalborg University. His research focuses on sustainable spatial development and in particular legal and other tools to ensure and promote sustainable development in the broadest sense.

Anne-Mette Hjalager

Anne-Mette Hjalager is a professor at University of Southern Denmark. Her key research interests include innovation in tourism, rural and coastal destination development, and gastronomy experiences. She works with tourism stakeholders in nature protected areas and in historical towns and sites.