Future past of tourism: critical reflection’s on the rise of tourism futures

Abstract

Given the presence of societal scale risks such as pandemics, war, climate change and artificial technology, the future of tourism will operate increasingly in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world. As such the present course of tourism research is unsustainable. In this paper, the authors draw upon the evolutionary paradigm in futures studies to identify a series of historical turning points in the development of tourism futures research. These include forecasting tourism demand using quantitative methods; the appointment of the world’s first tourism scenario planner; the establishment of the European Tourism Futures Institute; the creation of academic credibility through the Journal of Tourism Futures; the effect of COVID-19 on tourism research; and finally, the accelerator effect of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on our consciousness and awareness of the future. In conclusion, the authors offer a series of futures turning points identifying the direction of tourism futures, scenario planning and foresight within the realm of tourism research.

Keywords:

• Scenarios
• scenario planning
• foresight
• tourism futures
• forecasting
• turning points

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Ian Yeoman

Ian Yeoman is a Professor of Disruption, Innovation and New Phenomena at the Hotel Management School at NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences. He is a very disruptive person, hence the job title. He loves the future, as it is the only research you can makeup and not be accountable for as it hasn’t happened yet.

Una McMahon-Beattie

Una McMahon-Beattie is Professor of Hospitality Management and Head of Accreditation at Ulster University Business School. She has published extensively in the areas of tourism futures and marketing and is a board member of the Journal of Tourism Futures.