Labour Market Prospects of Swiss Career Entrants after Completion of Vocational Education and Training

ABSTRACT

This study seeks to find the reasons for the rising risk of unemployment for people who have completed basic vocational education and training (VET) in Switzerland. We focus on the long-term structural shift on the demand side of the labour market and its consequences for new entrants' chances of employment in the labour force. A detailed analysis of the development of vacancies for such ‘career entrants' in the time period 2001 to 2011 suggests that neither a growing occupational mismatch nor a general shift in the level of education to the disadvantage of workers with vocational education can be made responsible for the rising unemployment of labour market entrants. Instead, the available evidence indicates that a diminishing part of the vacancies suited for VET graduates remains open to entrants because of the increasing job requirements with regard to work experience and further education. Basic vocational education and training alone is increasingly less a guarantee for a smooth entry into the working world.

Key words:

• youth labour market
• school-to-work transitions
• job requirements
• vocational training
• skill demand
• Switzerland

Notes

1 When we speak of ‘career entrants' in the following, we are referring to graduates of dual or school-based upper secondary vocational training who are looking for regular employment upon completing VET.

2 Switzerland has not been considered in any of these studies.

3 Another possible explanation, which we will not pursue further here and which is not supported by our findings so far (cf. Sacchi and Salvisberg 2011), is the increasing risk of being dismissed at the beginning of one's career, as postulated by the ‘last-in, first-out’ hypothesis.

4 A separate analysis of dual and school-based VET would be an interesting endeavor in this context but is not possible based on the data currently available.

5 Tertiary-level vocational training and post-graduate study programs are considered forms of further education, which build on the foundations of basic vocational training or general education.

6 For information concerning the external validation of the SJMM data, see Sacchi and Salvisberg (2011: 67ff) and Sacchi et al. (2005: 130).

7 Unfortunately, the data does not allow an analysis for the entire population of VET graduates since 1990. Therefore Figure 1 refers only to career entrants with a dual apprenticeship. The unemployment figures are taken from AVAM. The population estimates for the entire gainfully employed population are based on the Swiss Labor Market Survey. Up until 1993, the unemployment figures involve some uncertainty (for details on the calculations, see Sacchi and Salvisberg 2011: 14ff).

8 The calculations are again based on AVAM unemployment figures. The ‘labor market for all VET graduates’ includes the entire working population aged 18–54 years with basic VET; the ‘labor market for career entrants with VET’ comprises all 18–21-year-olds with the same education. The vacancy figures are based on data provided by the Swiss Job Market Monitor (for details, see Sacchi and Salvisberg 2011: 48ff).

9 While the annual estimates are not very precise in this case, the decline between 2004 and 2010 is statistically valid (p < 0.05).

10 The downward trend is highly significant (p < 0.001). This account of the share of entry-level jobs focuses on long-term shifts between such jobs and other openings while it does not consider the strong fluctuations in absolute numbers owing to the business cycle (see Figure 2a).

11 The decline in entry-level jobs may also be a consequence of, as one reviewer suspects, companies ‘(…) increasingly resort(ing) to the external market when hiring into ‘mid-career’ positions (…)' The increasing share of jobs that require leadership abilities points in this direction but explains only a small part of the observed decline in entry-level jobs. Besides, it also fails to explain why there has been a sharp long-term drop in the absolute number of entry-level jobs (see Figure 2a).

12 Estimation of a cubic function does not significantly improve the model.

13 The additional indicators included in Model II are based on the information included in the job advertisements. In order to control for changes in the data base caused by the integration of new advertisement media in 2006, we have added a control variable accordingly. Interactions between the control variable and the time trend are neither substantial nor significant.

14 A design-adjusted Wald test was performed using ‘seemingly unrelated estimation’, F(1, 560) = 0.22; p = 0.64, to test the hypothesis of identical pairs of Bs.

15 We find a weakly validated interaction effect at a 10% level for only one group of occupations, namely for the metal, mechanical, and electrical industry; in this case, the decline in entry-level job openings is somewhat larger over time.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Alexander Salvisberg

Alexander Salvisberg is senior researcher at the ′Swiss Job Market Monitor′ (Institute of Sociology, University of Zurich). His main research interests are in qualifications, job requirements and skill demand, long-term economic change, its driving forces and social implications, as well as current trends in the labour market.

Stefan Sacchi

Stefan Sacchi is senior researcher at the Swiss Youth Panel ′Transitions from Education to Employment′ (TREE, University of Basel) and at the ′Swiss Job Market Monitor′ (University of Zurich). His current research interests focus on the impact of institutional arrangements and labour market structures on educational and career mobility and social inequality.