A Cohort Analysis of US and Japanese Homeownership Rates

Abstract

Aggregate data of homeownership rates in the US and Japan, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects using the Bayesian cohort models which were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. The main data-based findings are threefold. First, in both the countries, the age effects are the largest and the period effects are the smallest. Second, US and Japanese age effects are almost identical and consistent with some life cycle theories. Third, cohort effects are larger in the US than in Japan. In particular, the downward trend in the US cohort effects in the case of baby boomers is explained by two hypotheses. Furthermore, some policy implications are provided.

Key Words:

• Age-period-cohort decomposition
• Bayesian cohort model
• Homeownership rates

Acknowledgements

I am grateful to two anonymous referees for very useful comments. Needless to say, any remaining errors are mine.

Kosei Fukuda is an associate professor of economics at Nihon University, and was an economist for the Economic Planning Agency of the Japanese government (1986–2000).