Bulgarian Agriculture and EU Accession

Abstract

This article analyses markets, income and agricultural policy changes in Bulgaria after its accession to the EU. A country AG-MEMOD model, consisting of 18 commodities organised in four sub-models (crops, livestock, milk & dairy and a link between crops and livestock) is applied. The model is an econometric, dynamic, partial-equilibrium and multi-product one. In order to examine the policy environment in Bulgaria, two scenarios are designed: baseline or non-accession (N-Ac) and accession (Ac). The accession scenario should have a very positive effect on the crop sector in Bulgaria, whereas the effect is the opposite on the livestock sector. The most remarkable results come from the milk sector. The effect on income is also positive, despite the pessimistic macroeconomic projections.

Notes

³ The GOLD (grains, oilseeds, livestock and dairy) model is a dynamic, partial-equilibrium model of the EU agricultural sector that is maintained by FAPRI at the University of Missouri and has been used for the analysis of recent changes in EU policy (Binfield & Westhoff 2003; Binfield et al, 2003a).

² The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) is a unique, dual-university research programme. With research centres at the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University and the Center for National Food and Agricultural Policy (CNFAP) at the University of Missouri-Columbia, FAPRI uses comprehensive data and computer modeling systems to analyse the complex economic interrelationships of the food and agriculture industry for national and international organisations.

¹ The AG-MEMOD project is financed by the 6th EU Framework and by contributions from the partner institutes throughout the EU; http://www.tnet.teagasc.ie/agmemod/.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Nedka Ivanova

Nedka lvanova, Mariya Peneva and Plamen Mishev, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria.

AntoaneTa golemanova

Antoaneta Golemanova, University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Chair for Agricultural Economics, Policy and Law, 3 Groblje Street, 1230 Domzale, Slovenia, and University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria. [email protected].

Emil Erjavec

Emil Erjavec, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia.