Emigration intentions in a post-conflict environment: evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract

In this study we analyse intentions to emigrate from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), focusing not only on typical individual and household determinants, but also on post-conflict specific influences. We investigate cross-sectional survey data collected over the period from 2002 to 2010. Our findings indicate that higher intentions for emigration are indeed linked to the typical individual and household conditions: the young, educated and low-family income respondents report the highest intentions to emigrate. In addition, the post-conflict environment characterised by economic and political instability, as well as by conflict and post-conflict related migration, increases these intentions further, both independently and in different combinations. Although determinants such as employment status, household income and perception of economic development are relevant, their effect is of second-order importance. This contradicts the conventional thinking that economic factors are the main driving forces of emigration intentions. We provide evidence that the conflict and post-conflict related migration experiences, and the political situation, may surpass individual and societal economic influences in importance.

Keywords:

• Emigration
• intentions
• Bosnia and Herzegovina
• post-conflict

Acknowledgements

The author thanks Geoff Pugh, Hariz Halilovich, Didier Ruedin and Anna Rebmann for their support, and also the two anonymous referees and the Editor for additional improvements. Any shortcomings remaining are the responsibility of the author.

Notes

1. D_OUTOFBH in survey 26 (2008); D_EDUCATION in surveys 2 (2002); 6 (2003); and income D_LOWINCOME in surveys 25, 26, 27, 28 (2008).

2. We cannot distinguish between unemployed and those who are out of the labour market, since the variable that we are using has only these two codes: ‘employed or working’; and ‘unemployed or not working’.