http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5094-3961
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Abstract
In this article, we analyse the trade–growth nexus for Slovakia. This country represents a critical case for such research because it is one of the most open economies in the world; by several measures it is the most open economy in the EU, with the most Eurocentric trade, and has maintained one of the best growth performances within the EU over a sustained period of time. In contrast to most contributions to the trade–growth literature, we analyse all six possible causal relationships between Slovakia’s exports, imports and growth, using the technique developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), on quarterly data from 1997Q1 to 2014Q4. We find evidence supporting both the export-led-growth hypothesis and the import-led-growth hypothesis. None of the other four relationships was found to be significant.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank three referees and the editor for comments that helped to improve the paper considerably. All remaining shortcomings are the authors’ responsibility.
Notes
1. All data in this section are from Eurostat, except where stated.
2. Earlier data based on ESA1995 and now removed from the Eurostat website showed that, relative to a base index of 100 in 2000, by 2013 Slovakia’s real GDP, of 169.0, was second only to Lithuania, at 171.2.
3. The earliest date available in Eurostat.
4. In both cases, Slovakia is exceeded only by Luxembourg, Malta and Ireland.
5. Figures derived from Eurostat GDP data and European Commission AMECO database trade data.
6. In both cases, Slovakia’s figures exceed the second-highest country – Hungary – by about 15 percentage points.
7. Data from the World Bank, World Development Indicators.
8. Just behind Estonia and Latvia.
10. The most recent Eurostat data available.
11. http://www.oecd.org/eco/growth/indicatorsofproductmarketregulationhomepage.htm#indicators (last accessed 16 January 2018, at which time 2013 data were the most recent available).
13. http://alianciapas.sk/en/ttip-may-increase-slovak-gdp-by-422/, last accessed 29 November 2016.