Heuristics associated with forecasting chaotic events: a rare cognitive ability

Abstract

Chaos is a mathematical phenomenon in which seemingly random events are actually predictable by simple deterministic equations. Chaos has been identified in numerous situations requiring humans’ situation awareness, sense-making, and control. The management of chaos could be a rare skill, however, and the heuristics for doing so are not well understood. These hiatuses thus motivated a new theoretical issue in ergonomics science concerning the distribution of this ability across different chaotic attractors and some of the heuristics that might be used to forecast events. Untrained undergraduates (N = 147) forecasted number series from four chaotic attractors of varying levels of computational complexity. Performance was measured as the correlation between forecasted numbers and real numbers. Participants’ performance varied by type of attractor and whether the forecasts were made for one to four steps into the future. The less capable participants used moving averages strategies, whereas the best forecasters matched the real numbers more closely.

Keywords:

• Chaos
• forecasting
• heuristics
• dynamical decisions
• complex systems

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Stephen J. Guastello

Stephen J. Guastello is a professor of psychology at Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI, where he specializes in industrial-organizational psychology and human factors. He received his Ph.D. in industrial-organizational psychology from the Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL in 1982. He is the author or co-author of six books on applications nonlinear dynamics in psychology, and author of numerous articles in the same general areas..

William Futch

William Futch received his MS degree in Clinical Rehabilitation and Mental Health Counseling Psychology from University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill in 2017. He is currently a Ph.D. student in Clinical Psychology at Marquette University.

Lucas Mirabito

Lucas Mirabito received his MA degree in Clinical Psychology from Marquette University, in 2018. He is currently a Ph.D. student in Clinical Psychology at Marquette University.

Dominique Green

Dominique Green received her BA degree from Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI in 2019, where she majored in Psychology, Computer Science, and the interdisciplinary program in Cognitive Science. She is currently a MS student in Computer Science at DePaul University in Chicago.

Laura Marsicek

Laura Marsicek received her BA degree from Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI in 2020, where she majored in Psychology, Criminology and Law Studies, Social Welfare and Justice. She is currently a Psy.D. student in Forensic Psychology at the Chicago School for Professional Studies.

Brittany Witty

Brittany Witty received her BA degree from Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI in 2019, where she majored in Psychology and Studio Art. She is currently a MA student in Counseling Psychology at Marquette University.