Explaining Uncertainty Avoidance in Megaprojects: Resource Constraints, Strategic Behaviour, or Institutions?

ABSTRACT

This paper asks why uncertainties are avoided in dominant megaproject practice while planning scholars are increasingly advocating adaptive planning and uncertainty acknowledgement. We propose a novel analytical framework to explain uncertainty avoidance, consisting of two current explanations – resource constraint and strategic behaviour models – and a complementary institutional model. We apply the framework to a seaport megaproject in Flanders to test its validity. Results show that the institutional model increases our understanding of uncertainty avoidance. More attention to planning institutions and far-reaching institutional changes are required to facilitate a move towards uncertainty acknowledgement and adaptive planning.

KEYWORDS:

• Megaprojects
• uncertainty
• adaptive planning
• institutional analysis

Acknowledgments

We thank the journal editors and two anonymous reviewers for their critical comments that have significantly improved the paper. We are also thankful for anyone who participated in this study.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. https://mow.vlaanderen.be/nieuwesluiszeebrugge/

Additional information

Funding

The first author was supported for this research by a predoctoral mandate research grant from the FWO – Research Foundation Flanders [grant number 1S51820N].

Notes on contributors

Thomas Machiels

Thomas Machiels is a doctoral researcher in urban planning and a member of the Research Group for Urban Development at the University of Antwerp. His PhD research examines the planning and decision-making processes of complex projects, with a focus on uncertainties, adaptive planning and real options theory. His paper ‘Uncertainties in the decision-making process of megaprojects: The Zeebrugge new sea lock’ won the Young Academics Best Paper Prize at the AESOP annual conference in 2019, and was published in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – Urban Design and Planning.

Tine Compernolle

Tine Compernolle is an interdisciplinary researcher in the field of environmental economics. She obtained her PhD in Applied Economics in 2012. Her main research activities focus on analysing investment decisions under uncertain and the application of the real options theory. She applies this theory in the field of planning, public transport, energy investments, and investments in the circular economy. She is also highly interested in the sustainable development of geological resources and the planning of subsurface activities.

Tom Coppens

Tom Coppens holds a degree in architectural engineering (KU Leuven), urban planning (KU Leuven) and has a PhD in engineering: architecture. Coppens’ research focusses on the process side of planning and design. This includes decision making processes of complex projects, spatial policy and policy instruments in planning and design. Coppens is member and founder of the research group for urban development; He is currently head of the department of urban planning of the faculty of design sciences.