Penalty kicks in soccer: an empirical analysis of shooting strategies and goalkeepers’ preferences

Abstract

The outcomes of penalty kicks in soccer have assumed the utmost importance in the last few decades. However, it seems that shooting strategy is often based more on intuition than on careful research. To find out what should be the kicker’s best strategy, two studies were conducted. In the first one, data about 311 penalty kicks in top leagues and championships worldwide were collected and analysed. The results suggested that kicks to the upper area of the goal are the hardest to stop. A second study, in which top goalkeepers were surveyed, revealed that goalkeepers were most satisfied when they stopped a high kick – especially to the top corners – whereas missing such a kick caused the least dissatisfaction. Based on these studies, we suggest that the best shooting strategy of penalty kicks may be to aim to the upper two corners. Proper training should help in reducing the possible miss rate of such kicks.

Acknowledgement

We thank Ilana Ritov for helpful conversations and comments, and Yael Keidar‐Levin and Galit Schein for excellent research assistance.

Notes

1. For example, Palacios‐Huerta, ‘Professionals Play Minimax’, recorded an average of 2.57 goals per match in a large number (about 1,000) of professional soccer games played in the period 1995–2000, mostly in the first Italian, Spanish and English leagues. In the Korea/Japan 2002 World Cup, an average of 2.52 goals per match were scored. For details, see http://www.fifa.com/images/pdf/IP-301_12A_comparative.pdf.

2. Palacios‐Huerta, ‘Professionals Play Minimax’.

3. See McGarry and Franks, ‘On Winning the Penalty Shoot‐Out’; Chiappori, Levitt and Groseclose, ‘Testing Mixed‐Strategy Equilibria’; Palacios‐Huerta, ‘Professionals Play Minimax’.

4. Bar‐Eli and Friedman, ‘Psychological Stress in Soccer’.

5. Gould, Greenleaf and Krane, ‘Arousal‐Anxiety’.

6. Bar‐Eli et al., ‘Action Bias’.

7. McMorris and Colonso, ‘Anticipation of Professional Goalkeepers’; Morris and Burwitz, ‘Anticipation and Movement Strategies’; Savelsbergh et al., ‘Visual Search’; Williams and Burwitz, ‘Advance Cue Utilization’.

8. Azar and Bar‐Eli, ‘Do Soccer Players Play?’; Chiappori, Levitt and Groseclose, ‘Testing Mixed‐Strategy Equilibria’; Palacios‐Huerta, ‘Professionals Play Minimax’.

9. Azar and Bar‐Eli, ‘Do Soccer Players Play?’

10. Bar‐Eli et al., ‘Action Bias’.

11. McGarry and Franks, ‘On Winning the Penalty Shoot‐Out’.

12. Schmidt and Lee, Motor Control and Learning.

13. Bar‐Eli et al., ‘Action Bias’.

14. Azar and Bar‐Eli, ‘Do Soccer Players Play?’; Chiappori, Levitt and Groseclose, ‘Testing Mixed‐Strategy Equilibria’; Palacios‐Huerta, ‘Professionals Play Minimax’.