Substitutability, securitisation and hydro-hegemony: ontological and strategic sequencing in shared river relations

Abstract

When a river passes through multiple states, to what extent are those states able to co-operate over or come into conflict over that shared water source? To address this question, I build on previous literature that emphasised benefit sharing, securitisation narratives and basin-level hydro-hegemony to advance an ontologically and strategically sequential framework for understanding shared river relations. I apply that framework to explain the changes in the hydro-political relationship between Turkey and Syria with regard to the Euphrates River. From 1980 to 1998, the policy-makers in both states saw use of the Euphrates as helping the government achieve high priority political goals and perceived full usage of that water to be the only means of doing so. Therefore, they both securitised the issue of Euphrates water usage to a significant degree. This mutual securitisation drove the two states toward greater conflict. After 2000, each state found substitute means for those same goals and so reduced its securitisation of Euphrates water usage. This reduced securitisation facilitated greater co-operation between them.

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Jennifer Erickson, the Graduates Fellow at Boston College's Clough Center for the Study of Constitutional Democracy, and two anonymous reviewers at Conflict, Security & Development for their valuable suggestions regarding this article. Translation of all Turkish-language sources is the author's.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

^1.Falkenmark, ‘Fresh Water as a Factor’; Gleick, ‘Water and Conflict’; Lowi, Water and Power; Kahl, States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife.

^2. On this discrediting as well as why the water wars thesis remains prevalent, see Katz, ‘Hydro-Political Hyperbole’.

^3. On how international rivers can potentially lead to international conflict, see Haftedorn, ‘Water and International Conflict’. See also Amery, ‘Water Security as a Factor’.

^4.Wolf, ‘Shared Waters’; Selby, ‘The Geopolitics of Water in the Middle East’, 330; Wolf, ‘Conflict and Cooperation’; Brochmann and Hensel, ‘Peaceful Management of International River Claims’.

^5.Jomehpour, ‘Qanat Irrigation Systems’.

^6. For a critique of this binary, see Zeitoun and Mirumachi, ‘Transboundary Water Interaction I’; Zawahri and Gerlak, ‘Navigating International River Disputes’.

^7.Yoffe et al., ‘Conflict and Cooperation’; Zeitoun and Mirumachi, ‘Transboundary Water Interaction I’.

^8. See, for example, Warner and van Buuren, ‘Multi-Stakeholder Learning’. See also Martin et al., ‘Understanding the Co-Existence’.

^9.Williams, ‘Turkey's Water Diplomacy’.

^10.Kreamer, ‘The Past, Present, and Future’; Hensel et al., ‘Conflict Management of Riparian Disputes’.

^11.Stinnett and Tir, ‘The Institutionalization of River Treaties’; McCaffrey, ‘The Need for Flexibility’.

^12.Sosland, Cooperating Rivals; Elhance, ‘Hydropolitics’; Zawahri, ‘Third Party Mediation’.

^13.Cascao and Zeitoun, ‘Power, Hegemony, and Critical Hydropolitics’; Sneddon and Fox ‘Rethinking Transboundary Waters’, 183.

^14.Zeitoun and Allan, ‘Applying Hegemony and Power Theory’; Warner, ‘Contested Hydrohegemony’, 277.

^15.Zeitoun et al., ‘The Influence of Narratives’, 299.

^16.Cascão, ‘Use of Ambiguity’.

^17.Jägerskog, Why States Cooperate Over Shared Water.

^18. On virtual water, see Allan, Virtual Water. Among others, see also Hoekstra, ‘Virtual Water Trade’.

^19. Also on benefit sharing see Daoudy, ‘Getting Beyond the Environment-Conflict Trap’.

^20.Buzan et al., Security, 21–48.

^21.Stone, ‘Causal Stories’.

^22.Julien, ‘Hydropolitics is What Societies Make of It’.

^23.Kalpakian, Identity, Conflict, and Cooperation.

^24. On hydro-hegemony, see Zeitoun and Warner, ‘Hydro-Hegemony: A Framework for Analysis’.

^25.Zeitoun et al., ‘Transboundary Water Internaction II’, 165.

^26.Stone, ‘Causal Stories’, 282.

^27.Buzan et al., Security, 21.

^28.Zeitoun and Allan, ‘Applying Hegemony and Power Theory’, 11.

^29. On the significance of the non-hegemon's approach to the shared water resource, see Dinar, ‘Power Asymmetry and Negotiations’.

^30.Gleditsch et al., ‘Conflicts Over Shared Rivers’.

^31.Daoudy, ‘Asymmetric Power’.

^32.Dohrmann and Hatem, ‘The Impact of Hydro-Politics’, 572.

^33.Barnes, ‘Managing the Waters of Ba'th Country’, 521–524.

^34.Elhance, Hydropolitics in the Third World, 127; Dolatyar and Gray, Water Politics in the Middle East, 120.

^35.Mango, The Turks Today, 226; Dohrmann and Hatem, ‘The Impact of Hydro-Politics’, 574.

^36.Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy, 123. From 1970 to 1985, Turkey's imports from the rest of the Middle East increased from US$64 million to US$2.8 billion; most of that was oil. Ibid., 124.

^37.Milliyet, ‘Keban Barajı Batı Anadolu'ya eletrık vermeye ba¸ladı [Keban Dam Began to Give Electricity to West Anatolia]’, 29 August 1974. The construction of this dam elicited strong complaints from Syria and İraq. Milliyet, ‘İrak ve Süriye [Iraq and Syria]’, 25 May 1974.

^38. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development Southeastern Anatolia Project Regional Development Administration website: http://www.gap.gov.tr/about-gap/history-of-gap and http://www.gap.gov.tr/about-gap/what-is-gap.

^39.Çarkoğlu and Eder, ‘Domestic Concerns and the Water Conflict’, 47–49.

^40.Radu, ‘The Rise and Fall of the PKK’, 155.

^41.Çarkoğlu and Eder, ‘Domestic Concerns and the Water Conflict’, 44; Soffer, Rivers of Fire, 89.

^42.Çarkoğlu and Eder, ‘Domestic Concerns and the Water Conflict’, 48.

^43.Scheumann, ‘Conflicts on the Euphrates’, 117.

^44.Barnes, ‘Managing the Waters of Ba'th Country’, 521.

^45.Wedeen, Ambiguities of Domination, 27.

^46.Hinnebusch, ‘The Ba'th's Agrarian Revolution’, 3.

^47.Barnes, ‘Managing the Waters of Ba'th Country’, 521.

^48.Starr, Covenant Over Middle Eastern Waters, 134.

^49.Lowi, Water and Power, 56; MacQuarrie, ‘Water Security in the Middle East’, 33.

^50.Ababsa, ‘Agrarian Counter-Reform in Syria’, 88.

^51.Scheumann. ‘Conflicts on the Euphrates’, 118.

^52.Barnes, ‘Managing the Waters of Ba'th Country’, 523; MacQuarrie, ‘Water Security in the Middle East’, 29.

^53.Kiri¸çi, ‘Turkey and the Muslim Middle East’, 46.

^54.Elhance, Hydropolitics in the Third World, 133; John Kifner, ‘Syrian President Reported to Face Harsh Challenges’. New York Times, 18 May 1986.

^55.Barnes, ‘Managing the Waters of Ba'th Country’, 524.

^56.Efrat, ‘Syria: Economic Development’, 86; Perthes, Syria Under Bashar al-Asad, 27.

^57.Hinnebusch, ‘The Ba'th's Agrarian Revolution’, 4.

^58.Perthes, Syria Under Bashar al-Asad, 29.

^59.Soffer, Rivers of Fire, 99.

^60.Starr, Covenant Over Middle Eastern Waters, 133.

^61.Altinbilek, ‘Development and Management’, 16.

^62. For the same reasons, Syria also supported Armenian terrorist organisations that were attacking Turkey. Cornell, ‘The Kurdish Question in Turkish Politics’, 134.

^63.Bulloch and Darwish, Water Wars, 71.

^64.Çarkoğlu, and Eder, ‘Domestic Concerns and the Water Conflict’, 60.

^65.Bulloch and Darwish, Water Wars, 66.

^66.Zisser, Asad's Legacy, 10.

^67.Zisser, Commanding Syria, 3; Reich, Political Leaders, 60.

^68.Lesch, The New Lion of Damascus, 44.

^69.Zisser, Asad's Legacy, 21.

^70.Reich, Political Leaders, 61; Leverett, Inheriting Syria, 27.

^71.Seale, Asad of Syria, 446–447.

^72.Leverett, Inheriting Syria, 25.

^73.Lesch, The New Lion of Damascus, 43.

^74.Seale, Asad of Syria, 443; Zisser, Asad's Legacy, 93.

^75.Elhance, Hydropolitics in the Third World, 131.

^76. David Ottoway, ‘Turkey Vies with Syria for Water; Damascus Sees Threat in Dam on Euphrates’. The Washington Post, 19 May 1984.

^77.Elhance, Hydropolitics in the Third World, 148.

^78.Jongerden, ‘Dams and Politics in Turkey’, 1; Starr, Covenant Over Middle Eastern Waters, 133.

^79.Lesch, The New Lion of Damascus, 43; Scheumann, ‘Conflicts on the Euphrates’, 121; Starr, Covenant Over Middle Eastern Waters, 33.

^80.MacQuarrie, ‘Water Security in the Middle East’, 29.

^81.Hale, Turkey, the US, and Iraq, 70.

^82.Mango, The Turks Today, 219.

^83.Carkoglu and Eder, ‘Domestic Concerns and the Water Conflict’, 51.

^84. Ibid., 51.

^85. Adding to this, the GAP has also been viewed as a test of Turkish engineering prowess and national strength. Baği¸, ‘Turkey's Hydropolitics’, 571.

^86.Kalpakian, Identity, Conflict, and Cooperation, 104.

^87. Brian Groom, ‘A Long Awaited National Dream’. Financial Times, 14 May 1984.

^88. David Ottoway, ‘Turkey Vies with Syria for Water; Damascus Sees Threat in Dam on Euphrates’. The Washington Post, 19 May 1984.

^89.Milliyet, ‘Atatürk Barajı da bombalanacaktı [Ataturk Dam would have Been Bombed]’, 24 February 1987.

^90.McDowall, A Modern History of The Kurds, 479.

^91.Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy, 127.

^92.Milliyet, ‘Su, Ortadoğu'da stratejik silah [Water, in the Middle East a Strategic Weapon]’, 26 October 1989.

^93.Milliyet, ‘Suriye jetleri ucağımızı dü¸ürdu [Our Airplanes Shot Down Syrian Jets]’, 22 October 1989.

^94.Çarkoğlu and Eder, ‘Domestic Concerns and the Water Conflict’, 59.

^95.Soffer, Rivers of Fire, 100.

^96.Soffer, Rivers of Fire, 92–93; MacQuarrie, ‘Water Security in the Middle East’, 51.

^97.Solomon, Water: The Epic Struggle, 411.

^98.Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy, 233.

^99.Olson, ‘Turkey-Syria Relations’, 173; Altunı¸ık, ‘Turkey Policy toward Israel’, 64.

^100.Güner, ‘The Turkish-Syrian War of Attrition’, 110.

^101.Milliyet, ‘Baykal: Ultımatom yok [Baykal: This is Not an Ultimatum]’, 31 December 1995.

^102.Inbar, ‘Turkey's New Strategic Partner’, 178.

^103.Altunı¸ık and Tür, ‘From Distant Neighbors to Partners?’, 237.

^104. Ibid.

^105.Solomon, Water: The Epic Struggle, 411.

^106.Hale, Turkey, the US, and Iraq, 69.

^107. Öcalan was captured by Turkish security forces in Kenya in February 1999 and brought back to Turkey for trial.

^108.Milliyet, ‘Suriye ile yeni dönem [A New Period with Syria]’, 21 October 1998.

^109.Milliyet, ‘PKK Şa¸kın [The PKK is Confused]’, 2 June 1999.

^110.Kurdish Human Rights Project, ‘Internal Displacement in Turkey’, 3.

^111.Dismorr, Turkey Decoded, 166.

^112.MacQuarrie, ‘Water Security in the Middle East’, 20.

^113.Kurdish Human Rights Project, ‘The Ilisu Dam Project’.

^114.Mango, The Turks Today, 228.

^115.Carkoglu and Eder, ‘Domestic Concerns and the Water Conflict’, 49.

^116. Ten per cent of the population owned 75 per cent of the land while the wealthiest Kurdish landowners remained in possession of dozens of villages. Carkoglu and Eder, ‘Domestic Concerns and the Water Conflict’, 49.

^117. Ibid.

^118.Mango, The Turks Today, 228.

^119.Cornell, ‘The Kurdish Question in Turkish Politics’, 135; Ward, Water Wars, 177.

^120.Kiri¸çi, ‘Turkey and the Muslim Middle East’, 47. In Ottoman times, the towns along the Euphrates bustled with trade; the closing of the border made these towns not crossroads but end-of-the-line towns no longer benefiting from that trade. Mango, The Turks Today, 230–231.

^121. AKP Party Progamme, 2.6: http://www.akparti.org.tr/english/akparti/parti-programme#bolum_ [Accessed 5 March 2015].

^122. Ibid.

^123.Dismorr, Turkey Decoded, 125.

^124.Hürriyet, ‘Kürtçe yanına onay [The Next Kurdish Approval]’, 2 August 2002.

^125.Milliyet, ‘Diyarbakır'da ‘olağan’ haller [In Diyarbakır, ‘Usual’ Situation]’, 2 December 2002.

^126.Mango, The Turks Today, 224.

^127.Dismorr, Turkey Decoded, 120.

^128.Hürriyet, ‘Kürt sorunu benim sorunum [The Kurdish Problem is My Problem]’, 13 August 2005.

^129.Hürriyet, ‘Güneydoğu'ya 12 milyar dolar yatırım yapılacak [In the Southeast, A 12 Billion Dollar Investment will be Made]’, 13 March 2008.

^130.Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy, 208; Schaffer, Energy Politics, 53.

^131.Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy, 208.

^132. İbrahim Karagül, ‘Türkiye ABD'ye rest mi çekti! [Turkey Took the Rest to the US]’. Yeni Şafak, 18 July 2007.

^133. Nerdun Hacıoğlu, ‘Erdoğan, Putin'le imzayı attı ‘nükleer temel’ 10 Kasım'da [Erdoğan and Putin Sign Nuclear Agreement on November 10^th]’. Hürriyet, 14 January 2010.

^134. Taha Özhan, ‘New Action Plan for Southeastern Turkey’. Today's Zaman, 7 August 2008.

^135.Today's Zaman, ‘Ministry: We Will Evaluate Every Drop of Water’, 29 May 2007.

^136. On the reduced securitisation of Turkey's foreign policy, especially with regard to Syria, see Aras and Polat, ‘From Conflict to Cooperation’.

^137.Hürriyet, ‘Gila Benmayor. Suriyeli Bakan GAP'ta [Gila Benmayor, with the Syrian GA Minister]’, 17 August 2001.

^138.Hale, Turkey, the US, and Iraq, 136; Hurriyet Daıly News, ‘Iraqi VP: Turkey to Double Euphrates Water Flow’, 19 June 2009.

^139.Perthes, Syria Under Bashar al-Asad, 62.

^140.Zisser, Commanding Syria, 65.

^141.Springborg, ‘Economic Involvement of Militaries’, 397.

^142.Erlich, ‘Amid Syrian Protests’.

^143.Ababsa, ‘Agrarian Counter-Reform in Syria’, 84, 96.

^144.Stacher, Adaptable Autocrats, 136.

^145.Gambill, ‘The Kurdish Reawakening in Syria’.

^146.Barfi, ‘The Fractious Politics of Syria's Kurds’.

^147.Brandon, ‘The PKK and Syria's Kurds’.

^148.Lowe, ‘The Serhildan and the Kurdish National Story’, 168–176.

^149.Lesch. The New Lion of Damascus, 232.

^150. This change in hydro-politics between Turkey and Syria yielding greater co-operation over non-hydro-political issues is a good example of what Sadoff and Grey have termed benefits ‘beyond the river’ that often go unnoticed but are no less significant than transboundary water co-operation. Sadoff and Grey, ‘Beyond the River’.

^151.Carkoglu and Eder, ‘Domestic Concerns and the Water Conflict’, 62.

^152.Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy, 235.

^153.Hürriyet Daily News, ‘Turkey, Syria Sign Cooperation Deal between GAP, GOLD’, 24 August 2001.

^154.Kibaroglu and Scheumann, ‘Euphrates-Tigris River System’, 290.

^155. Altunısık and Tür, ‘From Distant Neighbors to Partners’, 240; Perthes, Syria Under Bashar al-Asad, 47.

^156.Larrabee and Lesser, Turkish Foreign Policy, 146.

^157.Perthes, Syria Under Bashar al-Asad, 47.

^158.Hürriyet, ‘Kapımızı açtık, bekliyoruz [We Opened our Doors, We are Waiting]’, 9 January 2004.

^159.Perthes, Syria Under Bashar al-Asad, 47.

^160.Hürriyet, ‘Suriye ile anla¸mazlığı bitti [The Dispute with Syria is Finished]’, 22 December 2004.

^161.Gordon and Taspinar, Winning Turkey, 58; Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy, 234.

^162.Fuller, The New Turkish Republic, 96.

^163.Phillips, ‘Turkey and Syria’, 37.

^164.Gordon and Taspinar, Winning Turkey, 58.

^165. Altunısık and Tür, ‘From Distant Neighbors to Partners?’, 241.

^166.Economist, ‘Lonesome Rebels’.

^167.Kibaroglu and Scheumann, ‘Euphrates-Tigris River System’, 294–295.

^168. Owen Matthews, Seth Colter Walls, Sami Kohen, Kevin Peraino and Michael Hastings, ‘It's Not about The West; Turkey is Risking Ties to the U.S. and Europe for a Simple Reason: Its Eyes are on the Eastern Front’. Newsweek International, 5 November 2007.

^169.Phillips, ‘Turkey and Syria’, 36.

^170. Ibid., 35–38.

^171.Hürriyet, ‘Ortadoğu'nun gözü İstanbul'da [The Middle East's Eyes Are on Istanbul]’, 22 May 2008.

^172. Zeynep Gürcanlı, ‘Bedeli Türkiye mi ödeyecek [Turkey Will Pay a Price]’. Hürriyet, 28 May 2008.

^173. Sami Moubayed, ‘Turkish-Syrian Relations: The Erdoğan Legacy’. Today's Zaman, 31 October 2008.

^174.Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy, 234–235; Kibaroglu and Scheumann, ‘Euphrates-Tigris River System’, 292–294.

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Gary Winslett

Gary Winslett is a PhD candidate in Political Science at Boston College and is specialising in International Relations. His research focuses on domestic influences of foreign policy.