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Original Articles

When truth is stranger than fiction: the Able Archer incident

Pages 111-133 | Published online: 27 Feb 2009
 

Abstract

In November 1983 a routine NATO nuclear readiness exercise code-named Able Archer could have led to a Soviet nuclear strike against the West. What is remarkable about this possible Soviet strike is that it was perceived by the Soviets as a defensive and pre-emptive strike. Therefore, the Soviets somehow believed that there was an impending Western nuclear attack that they had to pre-empt. American rearmament, NATO missile deployment, and Reaganite rhetoric somehow convinced the Soviets that the nuclear endgame was near. These fears climaxed in November 1983 during a seemingly innocuous nuclear-readiness exercise by the West.

Notes

  [1] CitationAndrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 471.

  [2] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal.

  [3] The Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) is the US strategic nuclear war plan. It contains a list of targets that might be attacked in a strategic nuclear war, and a variety of options to choose from for the actual deployment of weapons against designated targets.

  [4] CitationBall, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 87.

  [5] CitationGates, From the Shadows, 262.

  [6] CitationCaldwell and Legvold, ‘Reagan through Soviet Eyes’, 4.

  [7] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 269.

  [8] CitationTertrais, ‘Do Arms Races Matter’, 125.

  [9] CitationBall, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 68.

 [10] CitationBall, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 68.

 [11] CitationBall, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 68.

 [12] CitationOberdorfer, From the Cold War to a New Era, 65.

 [13] CitationBall, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 68.

 [14] CitationBracken, The Command and Control, 42.

 [15] CitationBall, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 68.

 [16] CitationBall, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 86–7.

 [17] CitationBall, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 88.

 [18] CitationKokoshin, Soviet Strategic Thought, 132.

 [19] CitationBracken, The Command and Control, 41.

 [20] CitationKokoshin, Soviet Strategic Thought, 180–3.

 [21] CitationNunlist, ‘Cold War Generals’.

 [22] CitationBracken, The Command and Control, 47.

 [23] CitationMastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

 [24] CitationMastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

 [25] CitationCaldwell and Legvold, ‘Reagan through Soviet Eyes’, 5.

 [26] CitationFischer, ‘Intelligence and Disaster-Avoidance’, 91.

 [27] CitationSnyder, ‘Civil-Military Relations’, 142–6.

 [28] CitationSnyder, ‘Civil-Military Relations’.

 [29] CitationSnyder, ‘Civil-Military Relations’, 146.

 [30] CitationAndrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 463.

 [31] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 269.

 [32] CitationKennedy, ‘War Games’.

 [33] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 267.

 [34] CitationKennedy, ‘War Games’.

 [35] CitationMastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

 [36] CitationTeague, ‘War Scare’, 71.

 [37] CitationMastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

 [38] CitationTeague, ‘War Scare’, 73.

 [39] CitationTeague, ‘War Scare’, 72.

 [40] CitationGordievsky, Next Stop Execution, 262.

 [41] CitationSnyder, ‘Civil-Military Relations’, 143.

 [42] CitationStein and Tanter, Rational Decision-Making, 32–8.

 [43] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 268.

 [44] CitationCanadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [45] CitationAndrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 69.

 [46] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 267.

 [47] CitationAndrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 472.

 [48] CitationAndrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 74.

 [49] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 268.

 [50] KGB Directive of 12 August 1983, quoted in Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 472.

 [51] CitationFischer, A Cold War Conundrum.

 [52] CitationFischer, ‘Intelligence and Disaster-Avoidance’, 97.

 [53] CitationPry, War Scare, 10.

 [54] CitationPry, War Scare, 10.

 [55] CitationCanadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [56] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 268.

 [57] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 271.

 [58] CitationCanadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [59] CitationJervis, Perception and Misperception, 129.

 [60] CitationAndrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 471.

 [61] CitationAndrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 472.

 [62] CitationFischer, ‘A Cold War Conundrum’.

 [63] CitationAndrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 69.

 [64] CitationGordievsky, Next Stop Execution, 261.

 [65] CitationFischer, ‘A Cold War Conundrum’.

 [66] CitationWolf, Man Without a Face, 222.

 [67] CitationFischer, ‘A Cold War Conundrum’.

 [68] CitationErmarth, ‘Observations on the “War Scare”’.

 [69] CitationFischer, ‘Intelligence and Disaster-Avoidance’, 98.

 [70] CitationAndrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 472.

 [71] CitationAndrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 473.

 [72] CitationCanadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [73] CitationAndrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 85.

 [74] CitationCanadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [75] CitationCanadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [76] CitationPry, War Scare, 37.

 [77] CitationOberdorfer, From the Cold War, 64.

 [78] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 3–4.

 [79] CitationAyres, ‘Defence Dept Says’.

 [80] CitationFischer, ‘A Cold War Conundrum’.

 [81] CitationOberdorfer, From the Cold War, 65.

 [82] CitationHowe, Conflict of Loyalty, 350.

 [83] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 269.

 [84] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 123.

 [85] CitationWinik, On the Brink, 290.

 [86] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 269.

 [87] Der CitationDerian, ‘The Value of Security’.

 [88] CitationAndrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 476.

 [89] CitationWinik, On the Brink, 290.

 [90] CitationHowe, Conflict of Loyalty, 350.

 [91] CitationAndrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 475.

 [92] CitationAndrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 86.

 [93] CitationAndrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 476.

 [94] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 129.

 [95] CitationGates, From the Shadows 272.

 [96] CitationPry, War Scare, 42.

 [97] CitationAndrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 87.

 [98] CitationGordievsky, Next Stop Execution, 272.

 [99] CitationWalker, The Cold War, 277.

[100] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 270.

[101] CitationGates, From the Shadows 271.

[102] CitationPry, War Scare, 34.

[103] CitationWalker, The Cold War, 227.

[104] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 123.

[105] CitationAndrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 88.

[106] CitationDorril, MI6, 749.

[107] CitationDorril, MI6, 742–3.

[108] CitationDorril, MI6, 743.

[109] CitationCanadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

[110] CitationCanadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

[111] CitationWinik, On the Brink, 200.

[112] CitationBall, ‘Improving Communications Links’, 157 – see article for a list of reported uses of the direct communications link.

[113] CitationGordievsky, Next Stop Execution, 377.

[114] CitationDirector of Central Intelligence, ‘Implications of Recent’.

[115] CitationErmarth, ‘Observations on the “War Scare”’.

[116] CitationSchwendener, ‘NATO was spied upon’.

[117] CitationMastny, ‘The New History’, 81.

[118] CitationGates, From the Shadows, 273.

[119] CitationMastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

[120] CitationMastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

[121] CitationDirector of Central Intelligence, ‘Implications of Recent’.

[122] CitationMastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

[123] CitationFischer, ‘Intelligence and Disaster-Avoidance’, 89.

[124] CitationDirector of Central Intelligence, ‘Implications of Recent’.

[125] CitationSchwendener, ‘NATO was spied upon’.

[126] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal.

[127] CitationRogers, ‘International Security’.

[128] CitationReagan, An American Life, 588.

[129] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 137.

[130] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 135.

[131] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 4.

[132] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 137.

[133] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 5.

[134] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 148.

[135] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 1.

[136] CitationCaldwell and Legvold, ‘Reagan through Soviet Eyes’, 21.

[137] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 110.

[138] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 266.

[139] CitationFischer, The Reagan Reversal, 132.

[140] CitationBrook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 270.

[141] CitationCanadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

[142] CitationDirector of Central Intelligence, ‘Implications of Recent’.

[143] CitationCanadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

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