Justice and Development Party at the Helm: Resurgence of Islam or Restitution of the Right‐of‐Center Predominant Party?

Abstract

The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which had been in government since 2002, increased its votes dramatically in the 2007 national elections. It was a first since the 1954 and 1977 elections in Turkey. With immaculate Islamist credentials, had those who voted for the AKP actually voted for political Islam in 2007? Or, were there some other factors at play? This study examines the determinants of party preferences of Turkish voters in 2007. The nationally representative pre‐election survey of 2007 is used in the statistical analysis, which reveals that partisan affiliations followed by the voter satisfaction with the performance of the economy played the biggest role in determining the voter preferences in Turkey in the 2007 elections.

Notes

1. For research findings from field surveys utilizing individual level data on Turkish voting behavior see Ersin Kalaycıoğlu, “Elections and Party Preferences in Turkey: Changes and Continuities in the 1990s,” Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 27, No. 3 (October 1994), pp. 402–424; Ersin Kalaycıoğlu, “The Shaping of Party Preferences in Turkey: Coping with the Post‐Cold War Era,” New Perspectives on Turkey, Vol. 20 (Spring 1999), pp. 47–76; Yilmaz Esmer, “At the Ballot Box: Determinants of Voting Behavior,” in Sabri Sayari and Yilmaz Esmer (eds.), Politics, Parties, and Elections in Turkey (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002), pp. 91–114; Ali Çarkoğlu and Ersin Kalaycıoğlu, Turkish Democracy Today: Elections, Participation and Stability in an Islamic Society (London: I. B. Tauris, 2007).

2. For a detailed analysis of the self‐placement of Turkish voters on a left‐right ideological spectrum and also of the main political parties of the country see Ali Çarkoğlu, “The Nature of Left‐Right Ideological Self‐Placement in the Turkish Context,” Turkish Studies, Vol. 8, No. 2 (2007), pp. 253–271.

3. See Ersin Kalaycıoğlu, “Attitudinal Orientation to Party Organizations in Turkey in the 2000s,” Turkish Politics, Vol. 9, No. 2 (June 2008), pp. 308–312, for the relationship between ethnicity and religiosity with left‐right ideological spectrum in Turkish politics.

4. On party identification in Turkey, see Ersin Kalaycıoğlu, “Partisan Affiliations of the Turkish Voters in the 2000s”. Unpublished paper presented at the Workshop on “Turkish Elections – 2007” in Istanbul, Turkey, at Istanbul Policy Center and Sabanci University, November 30–December 1, 2007.

5. The question posed was: “Siz bugün herhangi bir siyasal partiyi tutuyor musunuz?” which translates into English as: “As of today (currently) are you a fan of a political party?” The concept of “party identification” is hard to translate into Turkish, for the concept of identification does not exist in colloquial Turkish. It is possible to translate identification as “özdeşleşme,” which we employed in focus groups, and the standard reaction we received was a blank look and “buyur?” (excuse me?). It became apparent after a few focus groups that we needed a concept that better communicated the phenomenon of identification, and the closest we could find was “parti tutmak,” which has been in usage for a very long period of time. “Tutmak” connotes deep and intense feelings felt for an object, such as a sports club. Since party identification also refers to intense positive orientation and strong attachment to a political party and what it stands for, “parti tutmak” can function as the equivalent of party identification in the Turkish context.