Defining Turkish Power: Turkey as a Rising Power Embedded in the Western International System

Abstract

This paper argues that Turkey only partly fits the mold that describes the rising BRICS countries, and so it is useful to designate Turkey as a special case in the rising powers literature. On the one hand, Turkey has gained from the post-Cold War international structure by expanding its outreach to a broader international audience. However, contrary to many common characterizations of other rising powers such as the BRICS, this new position has not recast Turkey as a revisionist actor bent on distancing itself from the West and challenging the Western order, or standalone actor in regional politics. Indeed, it would be incorrect to conflate Turkey's increasing international prominence with growing strategic independence from the West. In fact, Turkey's economic and political ascent remains deeply contingent upon preserving its bonds with the Western world.

Acknowledgements

The author thanks his assistant Tyler Evans for his help with this article, especially for his work in completing key final revisions to the paper. The author also owes his gratitude to Tarık Oğuzlu and Emel Parlar Dal for their help in improving this piece, and to the reviewer.

Notes on contributor

Soner Çağaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and the Director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. He has written extensively on USA–Turkish relations, Turkish domestic politics, and Turkish nationalism. A historian by training, Dr Cagaptay wrote his doctoral dissertation at Yale University (2003) on Turkish nationalism. Dr Cagaptay has taught courses at Yale, Princeton University, Georgetown University, and Smith College on the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Eastern Europe. He is the author of the forthcoming The Rise of Turkey: The 21st Century's First Muslim Power.

Notes

1. For examples, see Rubin and Yesilada, Islamization of Turkey under the AKP Rule.

2. Pupcenoks, “Democratic Islamization in Pakistan and Turkey”; Criss, “Dismantling Turkey”; for empirical studies, see Gurses, “Islamists, Democracy and Turkey.”

3. Kupchan, No One's World, 4.

4. Patrick, “Irresponsible Stakeholders?”

5. Turkey's actual individual consumption stands at 58, while the European average is set at 100. These figures correspond to actual goods consumed by households. See Eurostat, “GDP Per Capita in the Member States.”

6. Ibid.

7. Kinross, Ottoman Centuries.

8. The World Bank, “World DataBank.”

9. Lehmann, Turkey's 2023 Economic Goal in Global Perspective.

10. Caglar, The European Union Has to Be Turkey's Growth Story.

11. Invest in Turkey, “FDI in Turkey.”

12. Gursel, “A Controversial Outlook on the Turkish Economy.”

13. Ibid.

14. Turkish Foreign Ministry, “Afrika Ulkeleri Ile Iliskiler.”

15. The World Bank, “World DataBank.”

16. For analysis of majoritarianism in Turkey, see Lord, “Turkey's Majoritarian System of Government.”

17. Reynolds, “Echoes of Empire.”

18. Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Synopsis of the Turkish Foreign Policy.”

19. Davutoglu, “Turkey's Foreign Policy Vision.”

20. “Dışişleri'nde yeniden yapılanma.”

21. Cevikalp, “Türk diplomatlar sokağa iniyor.”

22. Likhachev, The Role of Energy.

23. Patrick, “Irresponsible Stakeholders?”

24. Rubin, “Turkey, from Ally to Enemy.”

25. Abramowitz and Barkey, “The Turkish-American Split.”

26. See below: Gordon and Taspinar, Winning Turkey.

27. Author interview, September 2004.

28. Aydintasbas, “Iran'dan Kandil'e ‘çekilmeyin’ baskisi.”

29. “8. Türk-Arap Ekonomi Forumu Dış Ekonomik İlişkiler Kurulu (DEİK) işbirliğiyle İstanbul'da düzenlendi.”

30. Peker, “Turkey Renews Push for Arab Investment.”

31. Raiser, “Turkey on the Way to High Income.”

32. Lazaroff and Pear. “Israel and Turkey Reach Agreement.”

33. Grigoriadis, “Islam and Democratization in Turkey”; Criss, “Dismantling Turkey: The Will of the People?”; Yavuz, Secularism and Muslim Democracy in Turkey; Ozkan, “The Ghost of September 12 in Turkey”; Cinar, “The Electoral Success of the AKP.”