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ABSTRACT
Visa policies have been important instruments of control for the movement of people and what they effectuate depends on their character. They impede the flow of people when they are restrictive; they facilitate the entry and admission of people when they are liberal. Turkey has been using visa policies liberally for long to stimulate tourism growth. In this paper, the log-linearized version of gravity-type models is used to analyze Turkey’s tourism demand relating inbound travel to visa requirements, macroeconomic variables, distance and regional contiguity. The countries are segmented into clusters according to travel freedom their citizens enjoy using the Henley & Partners Visa Restrictions Index by employing the two-step cluster analysis. It is found that the visa restrictions imposed on a country has a detrimental impact of 29 percent on average on inward mobility and this impact is on the higher side for countries with almost visa-free travel.
KEYWORDS:
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Note on contributor
Abdullah S. Karaman received his B.S. degree in Mathematics from Koç University, İstanbul, Turkey; M.S. degree in Industrial Engineering from Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey; and Ph.D. degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering from Rutgers University, New Jersey, USA. His research and teaching activities have been in the areas of supply chain management, tourism demand modeling and simulation modeling with applications to air and maritime transportation. His research has been supported by the Department of Homeland Security-USA and Ankara Development Agency.
ORCID
Abdullah S. Karaman http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5768-7382
Notes
1. World Travel & Tourism Council, “2014 Economic Impact Report,” 1–5.
2. Balaguer and Cantavella-Jorda, “Tourism as a Growth Factor,” 877–884.
3. Aslan, “Tourism and Economic Growth,” 363–372.
4. Gunduz and Hatemi-J., “Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis”, 499–504.
5. Antonakakis , Dragouni, and Fillis, “Tourism and Economic Growth,” 142–155.
6. Timothy and Kim, “Understanding Tourism Relationship,” 413–432.
7. Kim et al., “Wealth vs. Outbound Tourism,” 1141–1147.
8. Lee, Song, and Bendle, “Visa-Free Entry,” 302–323; Neumayer, “Visa Restrictions,” 171–181; Song, Gartner, and Tasci, “Visa Restrictions and Implications,” 397–412; Balli, Balli, and Cebeci, “Inbound Tourism to Turkey,” 186–192; Lawson, Roychoudhury, and Murphy, “Gains of Eliminating Visas,” 1–4.
9. Henley & Partners analyze the visa regulations of all countries and territories in the world and present an index which ranks each by the number of other countries that their citizens can travel to without having to obtain a visa. The index is produced in cooperation with the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which maintains the world's largest database of travel information. The amount of nationalities (passports) evaluated is 199 in 2014. These are the 193 UN Member States, Chinese Taipei (“Republic of China Taiwan” passport), Kosovo, Palestinian Territory, Vatican City, Hong Kong (SAR China) passport, and the Macao (SAR China) passport.
10. Whyte, “Visa-Free Travel Privileges,” 127–149; Henley & Partners, “Visa Restrictions Index.”
11. World Economic Forum, “Travel and Tourism Competitiveness,” 49–55.
12. Cheng, “Tourism in Hong Kong,” 167–181.
13. Liu and McKercher, “Impact of Visa Liberalization.”
14. Lee, Song, and Bendle, “Visa-Free Entry,” 302–323.
15. Neiman and Swagel, “Post-9/11 Visa Policies,” 86–99.
16. See note 6 above.
17. Neumayer, “Visa Restrictions,” 171–181.
18. Ibid.
19. Ibid.
20. Balli et al., “Inbound Tourism to Turkey,” 186–192.
21. See note 6 above.
22. See note 12 above.
23. See note 13 above.
24. See note 14 above.
25. See note 15 above.
26. See note 11 above.
27. Lawson, Roychoudhury, and Murphy, “Gains of Eliminating Visas,” 1–4.
28. Neumayer, “Visa Restrictions,” 171–181.
29. Ibid.
30. Ibid.
31. Balli et al., “Inbound Tourism to Turkey,” 186–192.
32. Ibid..
33. United Nations World Tourism Organization, “Tourism Highlights 2015 Edition,” 6.
34. Prideaux, “Factors Affecting Bilateral Tourism,” 780–801.
35. “E-visa Info.”
36. Our period of interest, 2000–13, has a minimal overlap with the e-visa issuance commenced on 17 April 2013.
37. Kirişci, “Turkish Foreign Policy,” 29–56.
38. The primary author of this policy is the incumbent Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu.
39. Kirişci, “Turkish Foreign Policy,” 29–56; Kirişci, “Turkey's Engagement with Neighborhood,” 319–341.
40. Aygül, “Locating Change,” 402–418.
41. Kirişci, K. “Friendlier Schengen Visa System,” 343–367.
42. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Visa Information for Foreigners.”
43. Yakan, “Uluslararası seyahat ve vize anlaşmaları,” 198–207.
44. See note 34 above.
45. Lim, “International Tourism Demand Models,” 835–849.
46. Song and Li, “Tourism Demand Modelling,” 203–220.
47. See note 45 above.
48. See note 46 above.
49. See note 45 above.
50. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Culture and Tourism, “Number of Visitors.”
51. Yakan, “Uluslararası seyahat ve vize anlaşmaları.”
52. World Bank Group, “GDP per capita, PPP.”
53. World Bank Group, “Total Population.”
54. Bennett and Stam, “EUGene.”
55. See note 53 above.
56. TurkStat, “Trade by Countries.”
57. Morley, Rossello, and Santana-Gallego, “Gravity Models,” 1–10.
58. Im, Pesaran, and Shin, “Testing for Unit Roots,” 53–74.
59. Henley & Partners, “Visa Restrictions Index.”
60. Ibid.
61. Morley, “Dynamic International Demand Model,” 70–84; Naude and Saayman, “Determinants of Tourist Arrivals,” 365–391; Balli et al., “Inbound Tourism to Turkey,” 186–192.
62. Naude and Saayman, “Determinants of Tourist Arrivals,” 365–391; Balli et al., “Inbound Tourism to Turkey,” 186–192.
63. Arellano and Bond, “Tests for Panel Data,” 277–297.
64. Blundell and Bond, “Dynamic Panel Data Models,” 115–143.
65. See note 63 above.
66. Neumayer, “Visa Restrictions,” 171–181.
67. Ibid.