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ABSTRACT
In June 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU). Although many issues shaped the Brexit campaign, the question of Turkey’s quest for EU membership emerged as an unexpectedly strong factor. This article examines how this happened and how the debate evolved. It shows that those who advocated leaving the EU not only distorted the prospect of Turkish membership, they also misrepresented British support for the country’s accession. While the UK had indeed been a strong advocate of Turkey’s EU integration in the past, support for enlargement in general had declined in recent years due to increasing voter concerns over immigration. However, the policy of supporting Turkish membership could not be wholly repudiated by the government, even in the name of campaigning to stay in the EU, as this would have damaged Britain’s strategic relationship with Turkey.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Note on contributor
James Ker-Lindsay is Professor of Politics and Policy at St Mary’s University, Twickenham. He is also Senior Visiting Fellow at the European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science and Research Associate at the Centre for International Studies at the University of Oxford. His work focuses on conflict, peace and security in the Balkans, Greece, Cyprus and Turkey; EU enlargement; and secession and recognition in international politics.
Notes
1 For an exception, see Balfour and Stratulat, EU Member States.
2 IPSOS-MORI run regular polls identifying voter concerns on key issues. Even as late as May 2014, the EU failed to register in the top 10 on the Issues Index. In June 2014, it emerged as eighth on the list (up six places), with 12% of respondents citing it as the most important issue facing Britain today. Accessed March 27, 2017. https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3410/EconomistIpsos-MORI-June-2014-Issues-Index.aspx.
3 D’Angelo and Kofman, “UK: Large-scale Immigration.”
4 Vieten and Poynting, “Contemporary Far-right Racist Populism.”
5 Kahanec, Pytlikova, and Zimmerman, “The Free Movement of Workers.”
6 For a critique of the sovereignty argument, see Niblett, “Britain, the EU and the Sovereignty Myth.”
7 Calhoun, “Brexit Is a Mutiny.” Other issues raised by the leave campaign was the size of Britain’s contribution to the EU and suggestions that the EU was planning to create a European army.
8 There is an extensive literature of Turkish-EU relations. For some of the more recent works see Rumford, New Perspectives and Yesilada, EU-Turkey Relations.
9 ‘Commission Opinion on Turkey’s Request for Accession to the Community,’ Commission of the European Communities, SEC(89) 2290 final/2, 20 December 1989.
10 Altunısık and Tür, Turkey: Challenges, 120.
11 ‘Preparing for Enlargement,’ paragraph 12, ‘Presidency Conclusions,’ Helsinki European Council, 10 and 11 December 1999.
12 Presidency Conclusions, Brussels European Council, 16/17 December 2004.
13 Council of the European Union, Press Release, 2770th Council Meeting, General Affairs and External Relations, Brussels, 11 December 2006. The chapters were: 1. Free Movement of Goods; 3. Right of Establishment for Companies and Freedom to Provide Services; 9. Financial Services; 11. Agriculture and Rural Development; 13. Fisheries; 14. Transport Policy; 29. Customs Union; 30. External Relations.
14 In order of opening: Chapter 25, Science and Research, 12 June 2006 (Provisionally closed the same day); Chapter 20, Enterprise and Industrial Policy, 29 March 2007; Chapter 18, Statistics, 25 June 2007; Chapter 32, Financial Control, 26 July 2007; Chapter 21, Trans-European Networks, 19 December 2007; Chapter 28, Consumer and Health Protection, 19 December 2007; Chapter 6, Company Law, 17 June 2008; Chapter 7, Intellectual Property Law, 17 June 2008; Chapter 4, Free Movement of Capital, 19 December 2008; Chapter 10, Information Society and Media, 19 December 2008; Chapter 16, Taxation, 30 June 2009; Chapter 27, Environment and Climate Change, 21 December 2009; Chapter 12, Food Safety, Veterinary and Phytosanitary Policy, 30 June 2010.
15 Güney, “Europeanization.”
16 Cengiz and Hoffman, “Rethinking Conditionality.”
17 “Europeans reject Turkey, poll shows,” The Guardian, 19 July 2005. In France, support for Turkish membership stood at just 16%. In Germany, it was 21%. Barysch, “What Europeans Think.”
18 “Austria Signals Referendum on Turkey’s EU Accession,” Euractiv, August 25, 2008.
19 Akgün and Tiryaki, “A Forgotten Promise.”
20 Patton, “AKP Reform Fatigue.”
21 “Turkey Social Media Ban Raises Censorship Fears,” BBC News, April 7, 2015.
22 “Turkey: Freedom of the Press 2016,” Freedom House. Accessed October 20, 2016 https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-press/2016/turkey; Ranked 151/180 in 2016 ‘World Press Freedom Index,’ Reporters without Borders. Accessed October 20, 2016. https://rsf.org/en/turkey.
23 Göksel, “A New Cycle Begins.”
24 “Erdogan’s Turkey Has No Place in the EU, Say MEPs,” Euractiv, June 13, 2013. Standing for the Presidency of the European Commission, in 2014, Jean Claude Juncker stated that, ‘the country is clearly far away from EU membership. A government that blocks twitter is certainly not ready for accession.’ ‘My Foreign Policy Objectives,’ Jean Claude Juncker, April 23, 2014. Accessed July 14, 2017. http://juncker.epp.eu/sites/default/files/attachments/nodes/en_03_fp.pdf.
25 ‘Turkey “Will Probably Never be EU Member,”’ The Telegraph, September 21, 2013.
26 Chapter 22, Regional Policy and Coordination of Structural Instruments, November 5, 2013.
27 Chapter 17, Economic and Monetary Policy, December 14, 2015; Chapter 33, Financial and Budgetary Provision, June 30, 2016.
28 Guy Verhofstadt, “This Turkish deal is illegal and betrays Europe’s values,” The Guardian, March 10, 2016.
29 Yilmaz, “From Europeanization to De-Europeanization.” As Erdoğan told the EU in May 2016, in response to calls by the EU for his government to change controversial new anti-terrorism legislation: ‘we’ll go our way, you go yours.’ “EU-Turkey Visa Deal on Brink as Erdoğan Refuses to Change Terror Laws,” The Guardian, May 6, 2016; “Turkey’s Long Road to EU Membership Just Got Longer,” The Guardian, July 20, 2016.
30 “Turkey in No Position to Become EU Member Any Time Soon: Juncker,” Reuters, July 25, 2016.
31 ‘The Future of EU Enlargement,’ European Union Committee, House of Lords, Tenth Report of Session 2012-13.
32 Grant, Europe’s Blurred Boundaries. This approach was perhaps most neatly captured in an episode of the classic British political comedy, Yes Minister. In one scene, Jim Hacker, the fictional Minister of Administrative Affairs, discusses Britain’s relationship with the then European Economic Community (EEC) with his chief civil servant, Sir Humphrey Appleby. Sir Humphrey explains that for the past 500 years Britain has had one key policy objective: to create a disunited ‘Europe.’ Hacker then asks why, if that is the case, Britain had been pushing for more members. Sir Humphrey replies, “the more members it has, the more arguments it can stir up, the more futile and impotent it becomes.” Yes Minister, ‘The Devil You Know,’ Series 2, Episode 5, 1982.
33 Ker-Lindsay, “The United Kingdom and EU Enlargement in the Western Balkans.”
34 For an overview of British attitudes towards Turkish EU membership, see ‘UK-Turkey relations and Turkey’s regional role,’ Foreign Affairs Committee, 12th Report, House of Commons, 2012.
35 MacLennan, “EU-Turkey Negotiations,” 24.
36 Wallace, “The UK,” 542.
37 Barysch, “What Europeans Think.”
38 “Blair Pledges to Champion Turkey’s Entry to EU,” The Independent, May 17, 2004; “Turkey’s Future Lies in EU, Says Blair,” The Guardian, September 30, 2005; “Blair Warns of Sending Wrong Signal to Turkey on EU Bid,” International Herald Tribune, November 29, 2006; “UK vows to Back Turkey’s EU Bid,” BBC News, September 5, 2007.
39 The agreement, which can no longer be found on the British Government’s website, came in for considerable criticism as it appeared to support direct links between the UK and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which unilaterally declared independence in 1983 and which is only recognised by Tukey. This inclusion of a direct reference to the TRNC caused a major rift in UK-Cyprus relations, and was raised in the British Parliament: ‘Cyprus and the Strategic Partnership with Turkey,’ Early Day Motion 93, House of Commons, November 6, 2007.
40 Special Eurobarometer, ‘The Future of Europe,’ European Commission, May 2006.
41 QA33.13, Eurobarometer 66, European Commission, September 2007.
42 David Cameron, speech in Ankara, July 27, 2010, via Number 10 website (www.number10.gov.uk).
43 ‘UK-Turkey Relations and Turkey’s Regional Role,’ Twelfth Report, Foreign Affairs Committee, March 20, 2012, paras.10-15.
44 “David Cameron Welcomes Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,” Cabinet Office, July 30, 2012. Accessed July 14, 2017. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/david-cameron-welcomes-turkish-prime-minister-recep-tayyip-erdogan. “David Cameron: I Still Want Turkey to Join EU, Despite Migrant Fears,” The Telegraph, December 9, 2014.
45 “‘Nearly 600,000’ New EU Migrants,” BBC News, August 22, 2006.
46 ‘European Union, Fifty-Third Report, European Union Select Committee, House of Lords,’ para. 86.
47 For a full outline of the restriction imposed see Melanie Gower and Oliver Hawkins, “Ending of Transitional Restrictions for Bulgarian and Romanian Workers,” House of Commons Library, November 29, 2013.
48 “Net Migration into UK Increases – Office for National Statistics,” BBC News, November 28, 2013.
49 Melanie Gower, “Croatian Nationals’ Rights to Live and Work in the UK after Joining the EU,” House of Commons Library, July 15, 2013.
50 Duffy and Frere-Smith, Perception and Reality.
51 Of the mainstream British newspapers, The Sun, The Mail, The Express, and The Daily Telegraph all took a generally Eurosceptic line. (Although The Mail on Sunday eventually supported a vote to remain in the EU.) The Independent and The Guardian are generally seen to be pro-European. However, the degree to which they drive opposition to the European Union was contested:
It would be a mistake to conflate the role of the press in reporting European Union affairs with wider economic, social and political developments which feed criticism and cynicism about the EU. The British media reflects rather than creates popular attitudes although it does so through the distorting prism of a massive magnifying glass.
52 QA18.3, Eurobarometer 78, European Commission, December 2012.
53 In the May 2014 European Parliamentary elections, UKIP made significant gains. ‘European Parliament Elections 2014,’ House of Commons Library, Research Paper 14/32, June 11, 2014, p.2. For an excellent overview of the underlying reasons for the rise in Euroscepticism in Britain at the time (as well as France, Denmark and the Netherlands), see Gottfried, “Continental Drift.” It then gained its first seats at Westminster following the defection of two Conservative MPs. Both cited immigration as a major concern that had driven their decisions. ‘It’s time for change,’ Douglas Carswell Blog, August 28, 2014; “Why I Am Leaving the Conservative Party and Joining UKIP,” Mark Reckless, September 27, 2014. Accessed October 3, 2016. http://markreckless.com/2014/09/27/why-i-am-leaving-the-conservative-party-and-joining-ukip/.
54 “How the Tory Right Turned against EU Enlargement,” The Guardian, December 21, 2013; “Once Tories’ Answer to EU Fears, Enlargement Is Now Their problem,” The Observer, December 30, 2013.
55 “UK No Longer Advocates for EU Enlargement” Euractiv, December 21, 2013. Members of the government now made it ever clearer that there could no longer be an unfettered right of freedom of movement. Some measure would have to be introduced. For instance, one idea was that the freedom of movement from any new member would be limited until the per capita income of the new entrant reached a certain proportion of the EU average per capita income.
56 ‘EU Enlargement,’ House of Lords Hansard (Daily record of Parliament) Written Answers, Tuesday 17 June 2014. Certainly, within the corridors of the Foreign Office there was still a commitment to enlargement. British official, comment to the author, October 2014.
57 Ker-Lindsay, “The United Kingdom and EU Enlargement in the Western Balkans.”
58 “Goodbye Europe,” The Economist, December 12, 2012; “Cameron to Threaten EU with British Exit,” The Times, August 25, 2014.
59 “EU Speech at Bloomberg,” January 23, 2013. Accessed July 14, 2017. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/eu-speech-at-bloomberg.
60 “EU Referendum: The Red Lines for Swing Voters,” YouGov, December 18, 2013.
61 Full title: ‘An Act to make provision for the holding of a referendum in the United Kingdom and Gibraltar on whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union.’ Accessed July 14, 2017 http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/36/contents/enacted/data.htm.
62 European Council meeting (February 18 and 19, 2016), Conclusions.
63 “EU Referendum: Cameron Sets June Date for UK Vote,” BBC News, February 20, 2016.
64 Dustmann and Frattini, “The Fiscal Effects.”
65 “Public Services and Infrastructure | Key Topics,” Migration Watch, May 2016. Accessed July 14, 2017. https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/key-topics/public-services-infrastructure; “School Places Shortage Fuelled by EU Open Borders,” UKIP, April 18, 2016; “Migration Costs the NHS Far More than We Ever Knew,” UKIP, April 18, 2016.
66 “Anti-Muslim Prejudice ‘Is Moving to the Mainstream,’” The Guardian, December 5, 2015.
67 “Party Political Broadcasting,” BBC Trust. Accessed July 14, 2016. http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/our_work/editorial_standards/party_political_broadcasts.html.
68 “Cameron Wants Turkey to Join the EU,” Party Political Broadcast, UKIP, 3 February 2016. Accessed July 14, 2017. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnrFddSJWsk.
69 “Liberal Democrats Refer UKIP to the BBC Trust and Ofcom,” Liberal Democrats, 4 February 2016. Accessed July 14, 2017. http://www.libdems.org.uk/liberal-democrats-refer-ukip-to-the-bbc-trust-and-ofcom. “Ofcom Considers Investigation into Ukip Broadcast after 31 Complaints,” The Guardian, February 5, 2016.
70 “Ukip Broadcast Cleared after Complaints of Racism and Islamophobia,” The Guardian, February 22, 2016.
71 See, inter alia, ‘Vote remain for political union with Turkey, vote leave if you believe in Britain says Nigel Farage,’ UKIP, March 9, 2016; ‘Turkey IN means Britain OUT of the EU,’ UKIP, March 8, 2016; ‘Turkey visa deal – a huge error of judgement says Farage,’ UKIP, May 4, 2016; ‘UKIP Deputy Chairman William Dartmouth calls on the PM to be honest with the British people over Turkey potentially joining the EU,’ UKIP, May 23, 2016; ‘Ford used European loans to relocate British jobs to Turkey with more potentially to go at Dagenham,’ UKIP, June 20, 2016.
72 ‘Electoral Commission designates “Vote Leave Ltd” and “The in Campaign Ltd” as lead campaigners at EU Referendum,’ Electoral Commission, April 13, 2016. Accessed July 14, 2017. http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-referendums/electoral-commission-designates-vote-leave-ltd-and-the-in-campaign-ltd-as-lead-campaigners-at-eu-referendum
73 “David Cameron Confirms Ministers Can Campaign for ‘Brexit,’” The Guardian, January 5, 2016.
74 ‘HM Treasury Analysis: The Long-Term Economic Impact of EU Membership and the Alternatives,’ HM Treasury, April 18, 2016. Accessed July 14, 2017. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-long-term-economic-impact-of-eu-membership-and-the-alternatives.
75 “The Economic Consequences of Brexit,” OECD Insights, April 27, 2016; “IMF says Brexit ‘Pretty Bad to Very, Very Bad,’” BBC News, May 13, 2016.
76 “Obama Gives Powerful Warning against Brexit,” Financial Times, April 22, 2016.
77 “Why Australia Wants Britain to Stay in the EU,” The Telegraph, February 12, 2016; “UK Stronger in EU, Says New Zealand PM,” BBC News, April 1, 2016; “Canada Urges Britain to Stay in the EU,” The Guardian, May 20, 2016.
78 “By Winning the Economic Argument, the Remain Campaign Believes It Will Win the EU Referendum,” New Statesman, April 21, 2016.
79 “EU Referendum: Vote Leave Focuses on Immigration,” BBC News, May 25, 2016. Moore and Ramsay, UK Media Coverage, 68.
80 “‘Paving the Road from Ankara’: The EU, Immigration and the NHS,” Vote Leave, May 20, 2016. Accessed June 3, 2016. http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/_paving_the_road_from_ankara_the_eu_immigration_and_the_nhs.
81 “EU Referendum: Row Over Turkey’s Membership Bid Escalates,” BBC News, May 22, 2016.
82
Any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union. The European Parliament and national Parliaments shall be notified of this application. The applicant State shall address its application to the Council, which shall act unanimously after consulting the Commission and after receiving the assent of the European Parliament, which shall act by an absolute majority of its component members. The conditions of admission and the adjustments to the Treaties on which the Union is founded, which such admission entails, shall be the subject of an agreement between the Member States and the applicant State. This agreement shall be submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements. The conditions of eligibility agreed upon by the European Council shall be taken into account.
83 “Turkey Unlikely to Join EU ‘until the Year 3000,’ Says Cameron,” Financial Times, May 22, 2016. Oliver, Unleashing Demons, 240–1.
84 The poster can be found at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/21/vote-leave-prejudice-turkey-eu-security-threat#img-2. Accessed July 15, 2017.
85 “Vote Leave Embroiled in Race Row Over Turkey Security Threat Claims,” The Guardian, May 22, 2016. Accessed June 3, 2016. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/21/vote-leave-prejudice-turkey-eu-security-threat. Philip Stevens, “The Brexiters’ Ugly Campaign to Vilify Turks,” Financial Times, June 9, 2016.
86 “Revealed: MPs Who Cite Turkey as Reason to Leave the EU Earlier Wanted in Inside the EU,” Political Scrapbook, May 25, 2016. Accessed June 3, 2016. https://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/05/exposed-key-tory-mps-who-want-to-leave-eu-now-because-of-turkey-earlier-wanted-it-inside-the-eu/.
87 Conservative Friends of Turkey < http://www.cfot.org.uk/about-us/>. Key Leave supporters listed as founder members of the Conservative Friends of Turkey included Douglas Carswell MP (who had since defected to UKIP), Daniel Hannan MEP, Daniel Kawczynski MP, Boris Johnson. Accessed July 14, 2017. http://www.cfot.org.uk/founder-members/.
88 For a brief overview of Ali Kemal, see Norman Stone, “My Dream for Turkey, by Boris’s Great Grandfather,” The Spectator, April 23, 2008.
89 Boris Johnson, “Why Are We So Afraid of Turkey?,” The Spectator, February 26, 2007.
90 When the matter came during a television interview he stated: ‘Frankly, I don’t mind whether Turkey joins the EU, provided the UK leaves the EU.’ Andrew Marr Show, BBC 1, June 5, 2016. Owen Bennet, “Boris Johnson: UK Population Will Hit 80 Million If We Stay in the EU,” Huffington Post, June 5, 2016.
91 “Boris Johnson and Michael Gove demand David Cameron veto Turkey’s membership of the EU,” Daily Telegraph, June 16, 2016. In an act that many called hypocritical, just months later, after he was appointed foreign secretary, Johnson visited Ankara and promised to support Turkey’s EU bid. “Boris Johnson Accused of ‘Olympian hypocrisy’ for Backing Turkey EU bid,” iNews, September 27, 2016.
92 “Feeling the Heat, Prime Minister? Cameron Sweats as He Gets a Mauling from Voters Over Immigration, Project Fear and ‘waffling’ During First Referendum TV Debate,” Daily Mail, June 2, 2016.
93 Tweet by @vote_leave, June 3, 2016. Accessed July 14, 2017. https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/738666282288066560.
94 European Parliament, ‘2015 Report on Turkey: European Parliament resolution of 14 April 2016 on the 2015 report on Turkey (2015/2898(RSP))’, para.51.
95 “EU Referendum: Brexit Campaign Accused of ‘Fanning Flames of Division’ with Controversial Map,” The Independent, June 6, 2016.
96 “Could a Referendum on Turkey’s EU Membership Sink Brexit?,” Financial Times, June 7, 2016.
97 Senior opposition parliamentarian, comments to the author, June 2016.
98 “Could a Referendum on Turkey’s EU Membership Sink Brexit?,” Financial Times, June 7, 2016.
99 “Leaked UK Plan to Open Doors for 1m Turks,” The Sunday Times, June 12, 2016. According to the report, visa-free travel would be offered to Turkish citizens holding a ‘special passport’; a passport given to serving and retired Turkish MPs and civil servants, and their families. The documents were prepared by the Deputy Head of Mission at the British Embassy in Ankara, and the suggestion in question was just one idea of many. It did not reflect formal policy at the Foreign Office, let alone amount to actual planning.
100 “Turkey Visa Move Suggested by UK Diplomat, Papers Show,” BBC News, June 12, 2016.
101 “Gove Says Government ‘Working Towards’ Turkey Joining EU,” BBC News, June 12, 2016.
102 “Tory Cabinet Member Priti Patel Says 100,000 Extra Migrants Will Come to the UK When Turkey Joins the EU,” The Telegraph, June 12, 2016. Migration Watch, “The Outlook for Migration to the UK.”
103 Transcript, ‘Andrew Marr Show, 12th June, 2016, I/V David Cameron, MP.’ Accessed October 24, 2016. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/12061602.pdf. For an example of expert commentary on the issue, see Kortweg, ‘Storm in a Turkish Tea Cup.’
104 “Turkey Should Not be an Issue in EU Referendum, Says Foreign Minister,” The Guardian, June 22, 2016.
105 “Turkey Entry to EU: Newsnight Ilnur Cevik Interview,” BBC Newsnight, 21 June 2016. Accessed October 24, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjNnpWy-vXI.
106 “Turkey Could Hold UK-style Referendum on Stalled EU Bid: Erdoğan,” Hurriyet Daily News, June 23, 2016.
107 “Nailed, the Four Big EU Lies: Talks with Turkey Will Start in Days, Brexit WON’T Spark Trade War Say Germans, Brussels Will NOT Reform on Open Borders and Deportation of Jobless EU Migrants a Myth,” Daily Mail, June 22, 2016.
108 Lord Ashcroft, ‘How the United Kingdom Voted on Thursday … and why,’ Lord Ashcroft Polls, 24 June 2016. Accessed March 28, 2017. http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/.
109 Moore and Ramsay, UK Media Coverage, 99 and 94. Turkey was cited in a total of 461 articles, as compared to Poland (254), Albania (171), Romania (148), Bulgaria (93) and Hungary (28).
110 Oliver, Unleashing Demons, 133–4, 242.
111 Oliver, Unleashing Demons, 134.