https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5477-1028
![Sample our Area Studies journals, sign in here to start your access, latest two full volumes FREE to you for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5922/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Area-Studies.jpg"})
ABSTRACT
This article analyzes contemporary Turkey-European Union (EU) relations through the lenses of international relations (IR) theory. After providing a brief overview of the history of Turkey-EU relations, it focuses on the underlying dynamics of Turkey-EU relations in the post-2016 period. It makes a case that realism is better suited to explain the latest episodes in Turkey-EU relations. It specifically argues that balancing and neoclassical realism provide a more nuanced explanatory value as to why Turkey and the EU are going through a particularly tense period in their relationship. It also outlines global/regional factors as well as intervening national/domestic factors behind the rising tensions in Turkey’s relations with the EU.
Acknowledgements
This article was written during the author’s sabbatical at Harvard University, which was made possible through the APSA Spring Centennial Center Research Grant, the Center for Global Understanding and Peacemaking Grant and the two faculty grants received from Elizabethtown College. The author thanks Dr. Wayne Selcher, the editors of Turkish Studies, and two anonymous peer reviewers for their invaluable feedback on this article.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Representative samples of this voluminous literature include Aydın and Açıkmeşe, “Europeanization Through EU”; Özcan, Harmonizing Foreign Policy; Öniş, “Turkey-EU Relations”; Öniş and Yılmaz, “Between Europeanization and Euro-Asianism”; Terzi, The Influence of; Börzel and Soyaltın, “Europeanization in Turkey”; Aydın-Düzgit, “Constructions of European”; Demirtaş, “Turkish Foreign Policy”; Nas and Özer, Turkey and the European, Hintz, Identity Politics Inside Out; and Aydın-Düzgit and Rumelili, “Constructivist Approaches”
2 Buhari, “Turkey-EU Relations”, 96-97.
3 Dursun-Özkanca, Turkey–West Relations, 14-16.
4 Boundary testing allows the alliance members to understand the limits of the relationship and “which lines are not to be crossed” when dealing with other allies and entails active diplomacy, entangling diplomacy, cheap-talk diplomacy, and economic statecraft (Dursun-Özkanca, Turkey–West Relations, 35).
5 In boundary challenging, the challenging ally “seeks independence from within the allies,” and uses interinstitutional balancing, cooperative balancing, strategic noncooperation, and costly signaling (Dursun-Özkanca, Turkey–West Relations, 35-36).
6 In boundary breaking, the ally “signals a growing dissatisfaction with membership in the alliance and an increasing willingness to transition into hard balancing” and seeks “independence from without” through compellent threats, territorial and asset denial, alternative alliances, hostage diplomacy, and blackmail (Dursun-Özkanca, Turkey–West Relations, 36).
7 Art, “Correspondence,” 183-184 (italics in original).
8 Paul, Restraining Great Powers, 20. Representative samples of this voluminous literature include Joffe, “Defying History and Theory”; Paul, Wirtz, and Fortmann, Balance of Power; Paul, “Soft Balancing”; Pape, “Soft Balancing”; and Whitaker, “Soft Balancing.”
9 Fortmann, Paul, and Wirtz, “Conclusions,” 370; Pape, “Soft Balancing”; Paul, “The Accommodation of Rising Powers”; and Paul, “Introduction,” 3.
10 Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence.
11 Paul, Asymmetric Conflicts.
12 Paul, “The Accommodation of Rising,” 19.
13 Ibid.
14 Rose, “Neoclassical Realism and Theories,” and quote from Foulon, “Neoclassical Realist Analyses.”
15 Representative samples of this literature include Levy, “Diversionary Theory of War”; Rose, “Neoclassical Realism and Theories”; Schweller, “The Progressiveness of Neoclassical Realism”; and Ripsman, Taliaferro, and Lobell, Neoclassical Realist Theory.
16 Foulon, “Neoclassical Realist Analyses.”
17 McLean, “Understanding Divergence”; Yeşilyurt, “Explaining Miscalculation”; Şahin,“Theorizing the Change.”
18 Barysch, “Turkey and the EU.”
19 European Commission, “Turkey: European Neighbourhood Policy.”
20 Dursun-Özkanca, “Turkish Soft Balancing” and Turkey–West Relations.
21 Dursun-Özkanca, Turkey–West Relations, and Uğur, The European Union and Turkey.
22 Cornell, Knaus, and Scheich, “Dealing with a Rising Power,” 11.
23 Pierini, “In Search of an EU Role.”
24 Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy Since 1774, 257.
25 Tocci, “The Baffling Short-Sightedness,” 6.
26 European Commission, “Meeting of Heads of State or Government.”
27 Meerts, Diplomatic Negotiation, 29.
28 Greenhill, Weapons of Mass Migration.
29 Stamouli and Herszenhorn, “EU Leaders Deploy to Help.”
30 Bozkır, Conference Remarks.
31 German Marshall Fund, “Turkish Perceptions of the European Union.”
32 European Parliament, “Resolution of 24 November 2016.”
33 Shaheen, Wintour, and Rankin, “Turkey Threatens to End Refugee Deal.”
34 European Commission, “Joint Statement.”
35 BBC News “Erdogan Threatens.”
36 Beesley, “Brussels Pressed to Rethink Turkey.”
37 Kambas, “Standoff in High Seas.”
38 European Council, “Council Decisions on Enlargement.”
39 European Commission, “Turkey: European Neighbourhood Policy.”
40 European Parliament, “Resolution of 13 March 2019.”
41 European Council, “Outcome of the Council Meeting.”
42 Ibid., 10.
43 International Crisis Group, “Turkey-Greece.”
44 At that point in time, Turkey was already alienated from the transatlantic alliance due to developments in Syria and its acquisition of S-400 missile defense systems from Russia. For a detailed discussion of Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia and its foreign policies in Syria and Iraq and their impact on Turkey’s relations with European allies, please see Dursun-Özkanca, Turkey–West Relations, Chapters 6 and 7, respectively.
45 European Council, “Sanctions Regime.”
46 Ibid.
47 Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Press Release.”
48 Kalın, “Kalin: Interview with Mark Leonard.”
49 Neoclassical realism holds explanatory power in the pre-2016 period of Turkey-EU relations as well. Turkey’s quest for EU membership makes sense especially when considered against the background of the Cold War era and the bipolar international system under which it was initiated. Aside from the international systemic variables, at the unit-level, Turkish bureaucratic politics and the elites overwhelmingly aspired to be more closely associated with the Western and transatlantic institutions during that period, as Kemalism and Westernization dominated the discussion of Turkish foreign policy until 2002 (Turunc, “Post-Westernisation,” and Şahin, “Theorizing the Change”). For example, Şahin, in “Theorizing the Change,” argues that from the end of the Cold War until 2001, the Turkish bureaucratic elites chose to continue operating within the parameters of pro-Western security policies, despite the change of the international system from bipolarity to unipolarity.
50 The author thanks Reviewer #1 for this quote.
51 Waltz, Theory of International Politics.
52 Ripsman, “Neoclassical Realism”; Rathburn, “A Rose by Any Other Name”; and Frankel, “Restating the Realist Case.”
53 Paul, “Soft Balancing” and “The Accommodation of Rising Powers.”
54 This paper was finalized in the midst of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has galvanized the West and is sure to have significant regional and global implications in terms of the evolving multipolar international system.
55 Dursun-Özkanca, “Turkey and the European Union”.
56 Dursun-Özkanca, “Turkish Soft Balancing.”
57 Barysch, “Why the EU and Turkey.”
58 Dursun-Özkanca, Turkey–West Relations.
59 Ibid.
60 Ripsman, “Neoclassical Realism.”
61 Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Press Release.”
62 Dursun-Özkanca, Turkey–West Relations.
63 Al Jazeera, “NATO Countries.”
64 European Council, “North East Syria.”
65 Dursun-Özkanca, “Is the Atlantic Pact Sinking.”
66 Blanchard, “Libya.”
67 Ibid.
68 Petrangeli, “Operation IRINI”.
69 Ogunkeye, “France Suspends Role.”
70 Cook, “EU Sanctions Turkish Firm.”
71 Irish, “After Turkish Incident.”
72 Dursun-Özkanca, “Turkish Soft Balancing” and Turkey–West Relations.
73 Gümrükcü, “Turkey’s Erdogan Says.”
74 European Council, “Varosha.”
75 European Commission, “Key Findings of the 2021 Report.”
76 Ibid.
77 Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Press Release.”
78 Rose, “Neoclassical Realism and Theories”, 147.
79 Whitaker, “Soft Balancing”, 1124.
80 German Marshall Fund, “Turkish Perceptions of the European Union.”
81 Ripsman, “Neoclassical Realism.”
82 Levy, “Diversionary Theory of War”; Rose, “Neoclassical Realism and Theories”; Schweller, “The Progressiveness of Neoclassical Realism”
83 Şahin, “Theorizing the Change”, 493.
84 Ibid., 497.
85 European Commission, “Key Findings of the 2021 Report.”
86 Dursun-Özkanca, “Turkey-West Relations.”
87 McKernan, “Turkey Backs Down.”
88 Hoffman, Werz, and Halpin, “Turkey’s ‘New Nationalism’.”
89 Dursun-Özkanca, Turkey–West Relations, 37.
90 German Marshall Fund, “Turkish Perceptions of the European Union.”
91 Tziarras and Harchaoui, “What Erdogan Really Wants.”
92 European Council, “Press Statement.”
93 Berger, “Prospects for EU-Turkey Relations”; European Commission, “Key Findings.”
94 Tocci, “Teetering on the Brink”, 22.
95 European Commission, “Key Findings of the 2021 Report.”
96 Ibid.
97 Directorate-General for Climate Action, “The EU and Turkey.”
98 European Commission, “Trade.”
99 Ibid.
100 Paul, “Soft Balancing”, 70.
101 Lesser, “Turkey and the West.”
102 European Commission, “Key Findings of the 2021 Report.”
103 Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Press Release.”
104 Hamilton, “TTIP’s Geostrategic Implications.”
105 German Marshall Fund, “Turkish Perceptions of the European Union.”
Additional information
Funding
Notes on contributors
Oya Dursun-Özkanca
Dr. Oya Dursun-Özkanca is Professor of Political Science and Endowed Chair of International Studies at Elizabethtown College. She is the author of Turkey–West Relations: The Politics of Intra-alliance Opposition (Cambridge University Press, 2019) and The Nexus Between Security Sector Reform/Governance and Sustainable Development Goal-16: An Examination of Conceptual Linkages and Policy Recommendations (Ubiquity Press, 2021). She is also the editor of two books – The European Union as an Actor in Security Sector Reform (Routledge, 2014) and External Interventions in Civil Wars (co-edited with Stefan Wolff, Routledge, 2014) as well as a number of scholarly articles in leading peer-reviewed journals, such as Foreign Policy Analysis, Civil Wars, European Security, Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding, French Politics, Perspectives on European Politics and Society, and Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies.