The Black Sea: A Gateway to Energy Security and Diversification

Abstract

Fossil fuels are expected to continue dominating the world energy supplies in the coming decades while meeting more than 80 per cent of the projected increase in energy demand to 2030. While the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) will continue to be by far the largest supplier, the Caspian and Black Sea regions will also play a complementary role in world demand and energy security. As oil and gas trade between regions/countries is rapidly growing, it increases the potential of cooperation between parties. On the other hand, however, it also increases the vulnerability of the importing countries to those limited sources and rivalries that feed instability in oil producing and transit regions. To that end, diversification emerges as the most vital concept to decrease insecurity in the global energy field. The rapidly increasing oil export volumes via the Black Sea raises environmental risks since the Black Sea and the Straits of Bosporus and Dardanelles are under severe threat from increasing oil tanker traffic. Therefore not only the benefits, but also the risks should be recognised and evaluated accordingly. To that end, a regional approach and cooperation are vital necessities. The Black Sea is certainly a gateway to energy security and diversification if the countries in the region can cooperate rationally. If they fail to cooperate and rivalry overcomes mutual understanding, allowing emotions to overcome rationality, the gateway may turn instead into a locked iron door and become a source of instability.

Notes

[1] See ⟨http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm⟩.

[2] While the Caspian and African oil and gas reserves are frequently mentioned as alternative sources of oil and gas to the Middle East, neither the volumes involved nor the exploration and production costs are comparable to the Middle East reserves. These two regions are vital for world energy security as they contain alternative hydrocarbon sources for diversification needs.

[3] Website of the Organisation of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation: ⟨http://www.bsec‐organization.org⟩

[4] See Note 3 above.

[5] See the Green Paper on a European Energy Strategy and other CFSP documents.

[6] Problems are mainly due to tariff negotiations and ‘quality banking’ problems as yet unsolved in Russia, which makes the economy of using or expanding the CPC pipeline unfeasible for the oil producers.

[7] A joint venture of BP and TNK are using this line to send their production to Western markets.

[8] This pipeline is also listed under the sub‐topic of ‘Existing Pipelines’ since it is almost completed and will be operational in July 2007.

[9] The alternative resources are: Azerbaijan, Turkmanistan, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Iran and Egypt.