Critical junctures and local agency: how Kosovo became independent

Abstract

The determination of the political status of Kosovo is presented a case of path dependency. The article identifies a number critical junctures since summer 1999, arguing that there were a variety of options that would have led toward a settlement other than independence. These critical junctures included the October 2000 overthrow of Slobodan Milošević; the March 2003 assassination of Zoran Đinđdić; the March 2005 indictment of Ramush Haradinaj; and the January 2007 Serbian parliamentary elections. Because of choices made primarily in Belgrade and Prishtina the process was driven toward a path that favoured independence. The article stresses the indeterminacy of the process at its start, as well as the importance of local agency.

Keywords:

• Kosovo
• Serbia
• UNMIK
• independence

Notes

1. The European Union countries that have recognized Kosovo independence as of 21 December 2008 are France, United Kingdom (18 February), Germany, Latvia (20 February), Denmark, Estonia, Italy, Luxembourg (21 February), Belgium (24 February), Poland (26 February), Ireland (29 February), Sweden, The Netherlands (4 March), Slovenia (5 March), Finland (7 March), Hungary (19 March), Bulgaria (20 March), Lithuania (6 May), Czech Republic (21 May), Malta (21 August), and Portugal (7 October).

2. Albania recognized Kosovo almost immediately (18 February), and Montenegro and fYR Macedonia offered recognition later in a joint statement (9 October).

3. The privately maintained website www.kosovothanksyou.com has kept an increasingly detailed account of the process of international recognition since the declaration of independence. The site also posts a ‘thank you’ to each country in its relevant language or languages.

4. The UN Secretary General’s regular reports to the Security Council, and UNHCR–OSCE joint reports on minority assessment, provide the most reliable documentation of anti‐Serb violence in post‐conflict Kosovo. The UNSG reports are available at http://www.un.org/documents/repsc.htm and the UNHCR–OSCE reports are available from http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/balkans-country?country=Kosovo&display=minorities.

5. Radovan Karadžić was arrested by Serbian authorities in Belgrade on 21 July 2008. At the time of publication, December 2008, Ratko Mladić remains at large.