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Abstract
Demographic shifts, settlement patterns and population movements profoundly alter the geo-political landscape with important ramifications for human security. Though the theoretical framework is not as yet fully elaborated, the growing volume of relevant literature reflects a fast-growing interest in the political and international implications of demographic phenomena. Demography poses new challenges both for public policy and for international relations. This paper aims to offer an overview of the possible linkages between demographic dynamics and human security, focusing on the case of south-eastern Europe in the post-communism era. This region gives a striking illustration of the relevance of demographic trends to security, highlighting the multilayered linkages between economic and social transition and stability.
Notes
aInfant mortality data for all countries refer to 2006.
1. The roots of this theory are found in Malthus’ Essay on the Principle of Population published in 1798 while the concept of diminishing returns is also expressed in Ricardo’s Principles of Political Economy and Taxation published in 1817. Though rapid technological progress discredited Malthus’ theory, his ideas survived through the centuries and came back on the scene lately. For much of the twentieth century, rapid population growth was regarded as the greatest global threat. Concerns about the unprecedented high population growth rates and the consequent environmental degradation gave rise to the neo-Malthusian approach. At the end of the 1960s, two biologists, Garret Hardin and Paul Ehrlich, among the most influential neo-Malthusians, used provocative titles like The Tragedy of the Commons and the Population Bomb to set the tone for public debate about the disastrous effects of uncontrolled population growth.
2. Boserup reversed the Malthusian arguments indicating that pressure on resources imposed by population growth stimulates innovation which in turn increases food or other production (Citation1981).
3. Julian Simon in his well-known book titled The Ultimate Resource excoriated alarming statements about the perils of overpopulation on environmental decay and scarcity of natural resources, and claimed that population growth neither hinders economic and human development nor reduces the living standards. He argued that the ultimate resource is the human imagination coupled with the human spirit (Simon Citation1981, Citation1996).
4. Political demography is the study of the size, composition and distribution of population in relation to both government and politics. It is concerned with the political consequences of population change, especially the effects of population change on the demands made upon governments, on the performance of governments, on the distribution of political power within states, and on the distribution of national power among states […] in the study of political demography. It is not enough to know the facts and figures of population – that is fertility, mortality and migration rates; it is also necessary to consider the knowledge and attitudes that people and their governments have towards population issues (Weiner Citation1971, 567).
5. It needs to be mentioned that the concept of ‘carrying capacity’ is rather problematic in its definition as it is subject to political and social institutions, to economic conditions and to the adaptive capacity of a society.
6. Typical examples of blind attacks using the urban infrastructure are the 9/11 events as well as the Madrid and London terrorist attacks on railways.
7. The term ‘youth bulge’ is used to describe the relatively high proportion of young adults from 15 to 29 years of age. It is considered as a potential demographic stress factor, especially if combined with high unemployment and limited means of social change.
8. Gender asymmetry’ is used to define the surplus of males registered in certain Asian countries. Though it has not been sufficiently proved, it seems that the greater the imbalance in favour of men, the greater the social volatility and criminality in a society.
9. Old-age dependency ratio refers to the number of persons over 65 years of age over the persons at economically productive ages that is from 15 to 64 years. It is often used as an indicator of the economic burden, the productive portion of a population must carry to support the retired people.
10. This term is used to describe the migration of educated or talented people from less economically advanced areas to more economically advanced areas, especially to large cities or richer countries.
11. This term was used by a team of US political scientists and statisticians to describe the collapse of national order caused by mass political or ethnical killings, coup d’état and civil wars (Cincotta, Engelman, and Anastasion Citation2003, 22).
12. As recognized by Wright, [Population] movements may affect the balance of power and the prosperity of peoples, but there are always alternative methods for meeting these problems. Population differentials or population pressures never create a necessity to go to war though they may create a necessity for action quoted in Krebs and Levy Citation2001, 88).
13. With a definitely negative connotation, the term ‘balkanization’ is incorporated in all languages so as to describe the fragmentation, the disintegration or the division of an area into smaller regions, often hostile to each other. This perception of internal turmoil has been recently reaffirmed by the 10-year period of hostilities in the western Balkans that led to the dissolution of Yugoslavia.
14. For about half a century of socialism, eastern Europe had been the field for experiments in ‘social organisation of gender’ and ‘attempted redefinition of national identity’. Though neither gender inequalities nor national sentiment had been erased, socialism did reshape them and altered their interconnections (Verdery Citation1996).
15. Due to a variety of pronationalist and social policy measures (varied from paid maternity leave and day care provision for children under six years of age to restricted access to abortions and ‘childless’ taxation), procreation during the socialist era was characterized by early (most women had their first child before the age of 23) and quasi-uniformal childbearing with a preference for the two-children family norm (total fertility rate [TFR] was steadily around replacement level).