Can international criminal justice advance ethnic reconciliation? The ICTY and ethnic relations in Bosnia-Herzegovina

Abstract

The International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) was created by the United Nations Security Council in 1993 to advance a number of goals including providing justice, deterring human rights atrocities and advancing peace. We investigate the impact of the ICTY on another goal – reconciliation – that lies at the convergence of justice and peace. We suggest that, to the extent the work of the ICTY is favourably viewed by Bosnians, the better the prospects are for reconciliation. The ICTY’s justice and truth can potentially provide a critical basis on which individual judgements about reconciliation will, in part, rest. We test our hypotheses on data from the Southeast Europe Social Survey Project, which contains thousands of observations of survey data from the former Yugoslavia. We find support in our statistical model for our hypotheses regarding the impact of international justice on attitudes reflective of reconciliation.

Keywords:

• ICTY
• Bosnia-Herzegovina
• reconciliation
• public opinion

Notes

1. As found in the United Nations Security Council Resolution establishing the ICTY at http://www.icty.org/x/file/Legal%20Library/Statute/statute_827_1993_en.pdf.

2. Although, we must also note that some of these perpetrators later come back to power or positions of influence.

3. Chief Prosecutor Carla Del Ponte speech to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Belgrade, Serbia on 26 October 2007 as found on the ICTY web site at http://www.icty.org/sid/8829 on 12 April 2013.

4. President Claude Jorda, speech from on 12 May 2001 in Sarajevo as found on the ICTY web site http://www.icty.org/sid/7985 on April 12, 2013.

5. Prosecutor v. Drazen Erdemovic, IT-96-22-Tbis, para. 21.

6. As found on the ICTY web site http://www.icty.org/sections/Outreach/OutreachProgramme on 12 April 2013.

7. A full listing of Outreach programs can be found at http://www.icty.org/sections/Outreach/OutreachActivitiesArchive on April 12, 2013.

8. Extensive information on these data, the surveys and other information about the project can be found at http://www.svt.ntnu.no/iss/ringdalweb/SEESSP%20Surveys.html.

9. The questions asked individuals if they had had any of the following: ‘Recurrent and bothersome thoughts or memories about a traumatic war related event; Recurrent distressing dreams about a traumatic war related event; A recurrent sense of reliving past war trauma in the present such as flashback kinds of experiences; Persistent intense emotional or physical distress at exposure to cues that symbolize or resemble an aspect of war trauma (inside or outside yourself); Persistent avoidance behaviours, thoughts, or feelings related to war trauma such as avoiding certain conversations, ideas, or activities that arouse painful memories; Persistent loss of memory for important parts of a war trauma; Markedly diminished interest or participation in usual activities; Persistent feelings of being detached or estranged from others such as family members with whom you have felt close; Persistent reductions in the ability to feel your emotions or feelings of emotional numbness; A persistent sense of a foreshortened future; Persistent difficulty falling or staying asleep; Persistent irritability or outbursts of anger; Diminished ability to concentrate; Being easily startled or panicked frequently; Significant impairment in social, occupational, or other important areas of functioning (as a result of emotional distress).’ Individuals could answer ‘yes’ or ‘no’ and the variable is a count of the number of times individuals responded ‘yes’.

10. Data on the happiness are somewhat skewed with many more individuals reporting being happy, which necessitated collapsing the variable into a binary measure.

11. Age is measured by number of years a person has lived. Education is measured as an individual’s total number of years of full-time formal education. Gender is coded ‘1’ for males and ‘2’ for females. The question we use to gauge an individual’s sense of nationalism reads, ‘Survival of your nation is the main goal of every individual’. The values range from ‘strongly agree’ to ‘strong disagree’ on a five point scale where ‘3’ is ‘neither agree nor disagree’.