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Abstract
NATO’s relationship with the Soviet Union and then Russia has been central to defining the European regional and global security configuration for decades. This article explores the potential consequences of the Ukrainian conflict for the current and future NATO–Russia relationship. The analysis focuses on defining specific challenges and risks for NATO and Russia in managing the evolving security environment of the Black Sea region. The author offers an assessment of the potential for future NATO–Russia clashes or cooperation in the Black Sea, and for broader regional and global security. Some recommendations are suggested for managing the future NATO–Russia relationship during this period of heightened uncertainty and risk.
Keywords:
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1. For additional discussion of the pattern in U.S.-Russian relations see, Cross (Citation2009: 205–221) and Cross (Citation2013: 1–24).
2. M. Gorbachev, 1999. Discussion with the author, Gorbachev Foundation, Moscow, Russia, April.
3. B. Yeltsin, 1995. Remarks at the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) Summit, Budapest, in 5 December 1994 cited in Peace and Security: Defining Roles of for the UN, NATO and CSCE. Foreign Policy Bulletin: The Documentary Record of United States Foreign Policy, vol. 4, issue 4–5, January 1995: 11.
4. Rossisyskaya Gazeta, January 18, 2000.
5. Biden Vows Break with Bush Era Foreign Policy. Reuters, February 7, 2009 and for additional assessment of the 're-set' policy see the author's prior article see Cross (Citation2013, 1–24).
6. Obama, Medvedev Say ‘Reset’ US–Russia Relations. Associated Press, June 24, 2010.
7. H.A. Trofimenko, 1995. Discussion with the author, Institute of USA and Canada Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, September 18. For further reference see, Cross (Citation2002, 1–58) also published at NATO’s Academic Forum, http://www.nato.int/acad/fellow/99–01/cross.pdf (accessed April 8, 2105).
8. Ukraine crisis: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Warns Moscow ‘Will Respond’ if Interests Attacked. The Independent, April 23, 2014.
9. Putin says ‘Why Not?’ to Russia Joining NATO. Washington Post, March 6, 2000. Also see, Russia Could Join NATO if Terms Equal. Reuters, March 5, 2000.
10. Ibid.
11. Obama: New NATO Force a Signal to Russia. VOAnews, September 5, 2014.
12. European Reassurance Initiative. Operation Atlantic Resolve.US European Command, Communication and Engagement Directorate, US Department of Defense, June 26, 2014. http://www.defense.gov/home/features/2014/0514_atlanticresolve/FactSheet_OperationAtlanticResolve_3Jul14.pdf (accessed April 8, 2015).
13. Operation Atlantic Resolve. Ibid.
14. Ambassador Dmitri Rogozin, Remarks in Brussels, Belgium at a conference session hosted by the East–West Center, New York, November 25, 2008.
15. Speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin Marking the First Anniversary of the Crimean Signing. Reuters, March 20, 2015.
16. Ibid.
17. Russia Terminates Black Sea Fleet Agreements with Ukraine. ITAR-TASS, April 2, 2014.
18. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Will Get 80 New Warships to Repel NATO. The Moscow Times, September 23, 2014.
19. Ibid.
20. The Russian State Armament Program (SAP) 2011–2020, cited in Delanoe (Citation2014).
21. Putin Just Tightened His Control of the East Black Sea. Associated Press, November 25, 2014.
22. Putin Orders Vast Expansion of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet with New Base in Territory He Seized from Ukraine-As Fighting Continues in War-Torn Country. UK Mailonline, December 14, 2014; Russian Air Force Sends 14 Advanced SU-27 and SU-30 Warplanes to Belbek Air Base in Crimea. International Business Times, November 26, 2014.
23. Russia Moves Heavy Armour in Crimea. Jane’s Defense Weekly, April 1, 2014. See also, Delanoe (Citation2014).
24. NATO Commander Warns Russia Could Control Whole Black Sea. BBC News, November 26, 2014.
25. Montreaux Convention 1936, December 11, 1936.
26. U.S. Destroyer Donald Cook Returns to Black Sea. USNI News, December 29, 2014.
27. Video: Dueling NATO, Russia Naval Exercises on Black Sea. Navy Times, July 11, 2014.
28. Ibid.
29. Ibid.
30. Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, December 26, 2014.
31. Russia to Counteract NATO’s Boosted Presence in Black Sea-Envoy. Russia Today, December 27, 2014.
32. Putin Says Russia Was Ready for Nuclear Confrontation Over Crimea. Reuters, March 15, 2015. See also, Smith-Spark, Eshchenko, and Burrows (Citation2015).
33. NATO Ship in Black Sea Buzzed by Russian Planes, Russia Disputes Account. USNI News, September 9, 2014.
34. This article was originally published in Turkish in Analist Magazine, 2015 http://www.usakanalist.com/detail.php?id = 822200 (accessed April 8, 2015).
35. BSEC Celebrates its 20th Anniversary. Black Sea News, no. 26, December 26, 2012. See also Black Sea News, no. 27, June 2014.
36. UN Chief ‘Gravely Concerned’ as Civilian Death Toll from Ukraine Conflict Continues to Rise. UN News Center, February 5, 2015. See also, 50,000 Casualties in Ukraine? German Intel Calls Kiev’s 6K Toll ‘Not Credible’. Russia Today, February 8, 2015.
37. See also, Putin Says Russia Was Ready for Nuclear Confrontation Over Crimea. Reuters, March 15, 2015.
38. See also, Russian Bombers Disrupt Commercial Flights in Ireland’s Airspace. The Moscow Times, March 4, 2015.