Turkish-American strategic partnership: is Turkey still a faithful ally?

ABSTRACT

It has been widely argued that Turkish foreign policy has undergone a shift of axis under the ruling AKP, moving Turkey away from its Western alliance towards new alignments. The article employs neoclassical realism to explain the Turkish foreign policy behaviour, particularly Turkey’s policies vis-à-vis the United States and Russia in recent years. It aims to provide an account of Turkey’s military operations in Syria, the changing nature of Turkish-American relations, and Turkish-Russian strategic rapprochement, which has been raising concerns over Turkey’s faithful ally role in the transatlantic alliance. The tensions between Turkey and the US have gradually escalated following the American refusal to hand over Fethullah Gülen, Turkey’s military operations in Syria, Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian S-400 antiaircraft systems, and its removal from the F-35 fighter jet programme. The article analyzes both the unit-level variables and the systemic variables to explain Turkey’s evolving security and defence policies against the changing power structures and the implications of these policies on the country’s deteriorating relations with the US, competitive cooperation with Russia, and the future of the transatlantic alliance.

KEYWORDS:

• Turkey
• United States
• Russia
• NATO
• strategic partnership
• neoclassical realism

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. De-escalation zones in four major areas of conflict between the Syrian regime and the opposition: in Idlib province, in Northern Homs province, in Eastern Ghouta, near Damascus, and in Deraa and Quneitra provinces. See Aljazeera (2017).

2. Ateş and Üner’s interview with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (2019).

3. The US Congress passed the CAATSA in July 2017 to prevent countries purchasing military equipment from Russia and strictly calls for US sanctions. S.Res.278, ‘A resolution expressing the sense of the Senate regarding Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 air and missile defence system from the Russian Federation and its membership in NATO, and for other purposes,’ 116th Congress (2019–2020). https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-resolution/278/text?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22turkey%22%5D%7D&r=3&s=1

4. Adana Accord of 1998 allows Turkey to carry out cross-border operations to pursue PKK inside Syrian territories without establishing permanent military presence. Russia suggested that Turkey and Syria should reactivate the Adana Accord. See Kabalan (2019).

5. In Turkey’s northern, southern (due to its presence in Syria and Libya), eastern neighbour (due to its presence in former Soviet Republics, particularly in Armenia). See Dalay (2018).

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Notes on contributors

Mehtap Kara

Mehtap Kara received her PhD in International Relations from Eastern Mediterranean University and currently works as an assistant professor at Bahçeşehir Cyprus University. Her areas of research include IR theories, foreign policy analysis, and political psychology. [email protected]