A low-carbon society: global visions, pathways, and challenges

Abstract

The feasibility of two low-carbon society (LCS) scenarios, one with and one without nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS), is evaluated using the AIM/Enduse[Global] model. Both scenarios suggest that achieving a 50% emissions reduction target (relative to 1990 levels) by 2050 is technically feasible if locally suited technologies are introduced and the relevant policies, including necessary financial transfers, are appropriately implemented. In the scenario that includes nuclear and CCS options, it will be vital to consider the risks and acceptance of these technologies. In the scenario without these technologies, the challenge will be how to reduce energy service demand. In both scenarios, the estimated investment costs will be higher in non-Annex I countries than in Annex I countries. Finally, the enhancement of capacity building to support the deployment of locally suited technologies will be central to achieving an LCS.

Policy relevance

Policies to reduce GHG emissions up to 2050 are critical if the long-term target of stabilizing the climate is to be achieved. From a policy perspective, the cost and social acceptability of the policy used to reduce emissions are two of the key factors in determining the optimal pathways to achieve this. However, the nuclear accident at Fukushima highlighted the risk of depending on large-scale technologies for the provision of energy and has led to a backlash against the use of nuclear technology. It is found that if nuclear and CCS are used it will be technically feasible to halve GHG emissions by 2050, although very costly. However, although the cost of halving emissions will be about the same if neither nuclear nor CCS is used, a 50% reduction in emissions reduction will not be achievable unless the demand for energy service is substantially reduced.

Keywords:

• climate change
• climate policy options
• emissions reduction target
• low-carbon society
• scenario modelling

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-6–1 and A-1103) of the Ministry of Environment of Japan. We appreciate the support of the International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies (LCS-RNet), which has provided us with the opportunity to discuss global visions for a low-carbon society on various occasions. We also greatly appreciate the input of Shuzo Nishioka, Secretary General of LCS-RNet, and would like to thank Rahuls Pandey and Aashish Deshpande for their valuable comments.

Notes

The increase in final energy demand in 2050 is only 12% (relative to 2007 levels) in the Energy [R]evolution scenario, only 7% in the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, and 15% (relative to 2005 levels) in the ECOFYS scenario.

Nuclear power comprises about 8.2% and 4.8% of primary energy consumption in GCAM and IMAGE, respectively; CCS comprises about 56% and 67% of total CO₂ emissions (before the capturing process) in GCAM and IMAGE, respectively. Nuclear power and CCS comprise about 6% and 19%, respectively, in the BLUE MAP scenario.

GEA (2012) projects that, despite a more than 120% increase in building floor space by 2050 compared with 2005, a decrease in global heating and cooling final energy use of approximately 46% is possible if the state-of-the-art technologies that are already or are expected to become economically feasible become ubiquitous.