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Abstract
This article provides an overview of the recent modelling results on Russia's GHG emission trends, and reviews the success of mitigation policies in order to establish whether Russia's domestic target seems feasible. Various Russian GHG emission scenarios indicate that Russia's domestic target – emissions 25% below the 1990 level by 2020 – is not far from the business-as-usual emissions trajectory. In particular, two factors could deliver the required emissions reductions: the currently declining gross domestic product (GDP) growth and ongoing domestic mitigation policies. The former is more likely to secure the target level of emissions, because GDP growth has been contracting significantly in comparison to earlier forecasts of 3–5% annual growth, and this trend is expected to continue. The latter option – success with domestic mitigation measures – seems less likely, given the various meta-barriers to policy implementation, and the marginality of mitigation policies, problems with law-making processes, bureaucratic tradition, and informality of legislative and implementation systems.
Policy relevance
This article provides an assessment of the stringency of Russia's domestically set emissions limitation target by 2020 and the chances of Russia, the fourth largest GHG emitter in the world, achieving it. We base our assessment on a number of recent key sources that analyse Russia's GHG emission paths by applying socio-economic models, which have only been available in the Russian language prior to this publication. This knowledge is applicable for use by other negotiation parties to compare Russia's efforts to mitigate climate change to their own, and thus makes a contribution to facilitating a more equal burden-sharing of climate commitments under the future climate change agreement.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1. Data from UN Millennium Development Goal Indicators website: http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/SeriesDetail.aspx?srid=749&crid= (accessed 26 May 2014).
2. Although the INDC opens up the possibility of counting forest sinks, in this article they are excluded, in line with the position of the Ministry of Economic Development (MED) (Pluzhnikov, Citation2014) and the background study by Moscow High School of Economy to the President's Administration on the INDC, which formulated recommendations later accepted as the INDC without forest sinks (Government of Russia, Citation2014).
3. Only policies that can deliver concrete GHG emissions reductions are analysed. Other legislation that does not fulfil this criterion, for instance the Climate Doctrine, is beyond the scope of this study.
4. All data below exclude managed forests.
5. Authors use the UNFCCC methodology, i.e. trends and breakdowns provided are for direct emissions.
6. UNFCCC emissions data: http://unfccc.int/2860.php → GHG data → GHG data UNFCCC → detailed data by Party → Tables 1.A.3 and 1.B.2 in comparison to total emissions growth.
7. The Gaidar Forum is an annual international scientific conference in the field of economics. Established in 2010, it has become Russia's central political and economic event focused on sustainable development.
8. See e.g. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil (accessed 24 March 2015).
9. The document also mentions a cost of 400 roubles (equivalent to €10 in January 2013) for a reduction per tCO2 as a benchmark for potential additional measures, without clarifications or details.
10. Kulapin (Citation2014b). The target is limiting GHG level to 120% of the 2010 level by 2035 (Emissions in 2010 were 2217 MtCO2e or 66.1% of 3352 MtCO2e of 1990 level, all excluding LULUCF); 120% of 2010 is 2660 MtCO2e, equivalent to 79.3% of 1990 level. Data source: http://unfccc.int/2860.php.
11. Percentage figures constructed by the authors of this article, based on the graphs provided in the ERI RAS publication.
12. The uprated, or ‘enforcement’, scenario of 4–6% GDP growth was considered very unlikely, so those results are not discussed.
13. Remaining emissions (some 9%) consist of CH4 in agriculture and waste (∼4%), N2O and other GHGs (∼5%). National Inventory Reports 2013 → the Russian Federation → CRF. https://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/7383.php.
14. Beyond 2020 Database → energy balances of non-OECD countries/energy balances of OECD countries. Retrieved from http://wds.iea.org/WDS/Common/Login/login.aspx (subscription required for access).
15. The following three paragraphs summarize, and thus are based on, Order #N889.
16. Household appliances to be labelled from 2011, computers and office appliances from 2012, and other appliances from 2013.
17. Electricity is already mostly metered, but gas and heat distribution networks as well as production often lack metering. There are challenges involved in installing heat meters in the residential sector due to limitations in the existing infrastructure. Heat metering is required on the level of the building only, not of individual flats.
18. Those that spend over 10 million roubles (some €230,000 as of August 2013) on energy per annum.
19. It can be utilized locally as a fuel and raw material for the chemical industry, re-injected to increase pressure in the oil field, or collected and transported by pipeline to other users.
20. Standard environmental fines are established for emissions within standards, and above standards by Government Decree #344 (2003). For methane these are 50 and 250 roubles per tonne. Regional coefficients (between 1 and 2) apply in addition, depending on the specific environmental conditions.
21. Twelve-fold higher for 2013 and 25-fold from 2014. Non-metered flaring incurs 120 times the standard environmental fine.
22. Sberbank JI project website, updated 22 January 2013. Retrieved from http://www.sberbank.ru/moscow/ru/legal/credits/cfinans/sozip/.
23. Data source: IEA Beyond 2020 Energy Balances for non-OECD countries. IEA/OECD Citation2013. Retrieved from http://wds.iea.org/WDS/Common/Login/login.aspx (requires subscription for access).
24. APG without fat components, more or less equivalent to methane.
25. IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2014. Russia: GDP, constant prices (percentage change).