How significant a role can China’s forest sector play in decarbonizing its economy?

ABSTRACT

To assess the potential role of China’s forest sector in achieving its goals of carbon (C) emission reduction and neutralization, it is essential to project C sequestered by forest ecosystems (FESs) and stored in harvested wood products (HWPs). It is also crucial to put these actions into a coherent framework of C accounting. Building on these steps, we show that during 2006–2020, the sector’s biomass and soil C sequestration reached 2.589 petagrams (Pg) and 1.275 Pg respectively, and its C storage in HWPs added 0.491 Pg. These outcomes could have offset 11.76% of the country’s cumulative C emissions. As China’s emissions pass their peak in this decade, the proportion of carbon offset by FESs and HWPs will likely decrease below 10.00%. During 2006–2060, however, FES biomass and soil C sequestration would be 7.574 and 3.730 Pg, and C storage in HWPs would be 1.709 Pg, even under conservative assumptions. These estimates could lead to an overall offset ratio of 14.72%. In addition to highlighting the relevance of pursuing more aggressive nature-based solutions, this study can serve as an example of C accounting and tracking toward meeting countries’ targets as specified in their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement.

Key policy insights

• China’s forest ecosystems and in-service wood products play an important role in removing and offsetting carbon (C) emissions.

• The forest sector actions are also cost-effective, especially if forest growth can be improved by adopting broad management practices.

• During the 2050s, these actions could more than offset the country’s total emissions, allowing it to achieve C neutrality earlier than originally planned.

• To enhance the efficiency and productivity of forestry, China needs to further restructure its institutional arrangements and public policies.

• To fully account for forest sector’s potentials, China must capture all possible C pools of the ecosystems, including in soil, urban trees/forests, and other trees outside of forests.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• carbon accounting
• forest ecosystem sequestration
• wood product storage
• emission offset

Acknowledgements

The authors appreciate the constructive comments and criticisms made by the reviewers and editors of this journal, as well as many of their colleagues and students in the U.S. and China. R.S. is grateful for financial support from the AgBioResearch and Asian Studies Center of Michigan State University, and for editorial assistance provided by Victoria Hoelzer-Maddox.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 In 2018, China’s CO₂ and GHG emissions stood, respectively, at 10.1 billion tons (i.e. petagrams or Pg) and 12.7 Pg (Energy Foundation China, 2020).

2 In addition to crediting, a results-based payment scheme for REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, and conservation of forest carbon stock) may be pursued by a developing country in international cooperation to generate C offsetting, whereby the UNFCCC focuses on mitigation beyond business as usual (FAO, 2016). In this context, the actions that should count are those that reduce CO₂ emissions above and beyond what would occur in the absence of their execution – another way of determining additionality.

3 An open-access data source run by the University of Oxford (https://ourworldindata.org/).

4 An open-access database run by the FAO (https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home).