Missing density: assessing support for compact cities among Canadian municipal officials and members of the public

ABSTRACT

Developing compact urban form is a key strategy for the decarbonization of cities. Though many Canadian municipalities have declared climate emergencies, few have made progress on enabling compact land use. What, then, are the prospects for mitigating climate change via increased density? In this analysis, we examine two datasets: survey data of Canadian municipal elected officials (N = 1156), and a representative survey of the Canadian public (N = 3925). We find robust evidence in both samples that elected officials and members of the public who support local climate action are more likely to endorse low-carbon transport than to endorse compact cities. Among politicians, 35% strongly supported climate action, but only 17% strongly supported both climate action and increased density in established neighbourhoods. Since compact cities are critical to the success of low-carbon transport, voters may struggle to identify local candidates who endorse both climate action and the policies necessary to attain it. We further examine predictors of opposition to densification among members of the public, finding that, all else equal, home ownership is associated with a 33% decrease in the likelihood of a participant strongly supporting new housing in established neighbourhoods. While cities could use a variety of policy tools to increase density – including zoning changes, shorter public consultations, and reduced car parking – political will to implement these policies may be lacking. Given the obstacles to local action identified here, we suggest that provincial or national legislation may circumvent local opposition and accelerate the transition to a more compact urban form.

Key policy insights

• Both city officials and members of the public who support climate action are more supportive of low-carbon transport than compact neighbourhoods. This represents a missed opportunity since dense housing complements low-carbon transport making it more cost-effective and efficient.

• Opposition to new housing in existing neighbourhoods is especially strong amongst homeowners (who possess disproportionate political power at the local level).

• Views on increased housing in existing neighbourhoods are not polarized along partisan lines, suggesting the possibility of bipartisan action at higher levels of government.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate solutions
• housing
• low-carbon transport
• urban densification
• municipal politics
• elected officials

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank Jack Lucas for generous sharing of data and for insightful methodological suggestions.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

All data and code are available at: osf.io/f7cm8

Notes

1 osf.io/f7cm8

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada: [grant no 756-2021-0038].