The threat of war and domestic restraints to defence reform- how fear of major military conflict changed and did not change the Ukrainian military 2014-2019

ABSTRACT

The annexation of Crimea and the Russia enabled rebellion in Donbas created a need for radical improvements of Ukrainian military capability. This study discusses how different, mostly domestic, reform drivers and reform impeding factors had impact on the pace of Ukrainian top-down defence reform in the period since the confrontation with Russia started in 2014. It concludes that reform has been uneven, and that while vested organizational interests and dominant organizational ideas explain much of the slowness of reform, also corruption played a significant role. Furthermore, the Ukrainian case demonstrates how foreign pressure was important to facilitate reform even in a country that found itself facing the danger of major war. Nevertheless, the study does confirm previous findings that a “threat of defeat in war” in the end overcome domestic restraints to defence reform.

KEYWORDS:

• Ukraine
• Russia
• defence reform
• corruption

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. In this index a score of 100 means no corruption and 0 is total corruption.

2. Authors’ interview with Andrii Ryzhenko, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Navy for Euro-Atlantic integration, Kyiv, August 2018.

3. Authors’ interview with Ihor Kabanenko, Navy Admiral (Rtd), President of UA.RPA, Kyiv, August 2018.

4. Authors’ interview with Serhii Haiduk, Vice Admiral, former Commander of the Ukrainian Navy (2014–2016), Head of the Association of Veterans of the Naval Forces of Ukraine, Kyiv, August 2018.

5. An English language version of the strategy can be found here https://navy.mil.gov.ua/en/strategiya-vijskovo-morskyh-syl-zbrojnyh-syl-ukrayiny-2035/.

6. Authors’ interview with Andrii Ryzhenko, Kyiv, August 2018.

7. Authors’ interview with Iurii Belov, adviser to the Head of the SBU, Kyiv, August 2018.

8. Authors’ interview with Petro Shatkovskii, First Deputy Head of the Security Service of Ukraine in the years 2012 to 2013, Kyiv, August 2018.

9. Authors’ interview with Oleksandr Lemonov, Chief Expert of the Anti-Corruption Group, Reanimation Package of Reforms, Kyiv, August 2018.

10. Interview with Valentin Badrak, Kyiv, August 2018.

11. http://opk.com.ua/створення-ссо-та-ракетнi-програми-н/.

12. https://www.unian.info/politics/10595037-ukrainian-spec-ops-forces-unit-passes-nato-certification-first-time-in-history.html.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs [UKR-15/0025].

Notes on contributors

Tor Bukkvoll

Tor Bukkvoll is Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), Kjeller, Norway. His academic specialization is Russian and Ukrainian affairs, especially in the areas of security and defence.

Volodymyr Solovian

Volodymyr Solovian is head of foreign policy projects at the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmaments Studies (CACDS), Kyiv, Ukraine.