The future of Russia’s agriculture and food industry between global opportunities and technological restrictions

ABSTRACT

This paper reports on the result of a major foresight exercise commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation on the prospective developments of the agriculture and food industry up to the year 2030. The exercise identified economic, technological, social and ecological trends that will greatly influence both supply and demand in the industry. The findings provide a decision base for policy-makers to improve the technology base and to ease the reliance on technology imports. The country’s agricultural producers have been struggling with the introduction of new technologies, and customers are showing conservative demand patterns. Previous research showed that technology transfer into Russian agricultural enterprises suffers from a low knowledge level especially in receiving organizations. The country’s own S&T system requires support both for technology development and technology transfer, especially for breeding of best-suited plants and animals for local circumstances. Furthermore, consumer behaviour could be influenced towards higher demand, for example, organic food or ethical husbandry.

KEYWORDS:

• Agriculture
• food industry
• Russia
• foresight

Acknowledgement

Financial support from the government of the Russian Federation within the framework of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics and within the framework of implementation of the 5-100 Programme Roadmap of the National Research University Higher School of Economics is acknowledged.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 within the framework of the emerging state strategic planning system. This system is being developed in accordance with Federal Law №172 from 28 June 2016 ‘On strategic planning in the Russian Federation’. Thereby, Agriculture Foresight 2030 is a sector-specific element of the larger exercise of Foresight of science and technology development of the Russian Federation, which was formally endorsed by the Head of Government in January 2014.