The Management of International Rivers as Demands Grow and Supplies Tighten: India, China, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh

Abstract

Acknowledgments

Thanks to Devesh Kapur for suggesting that we write on this topic and for careful and thoughtful comments on an earlier draft. Thanks also to two anonymous referees.

Notes

1. By one estimate there are more poor people in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin than in all sub-Saharan Africa: P. Rogers and others, “Water and Development in Bangladesh: A Retrospective on the Flood Action Plan” (Report prepared for the Bureau for Asia and the Near East of USAID. Irrigation Support Project for Asia and the Near East, 1994.)

2. Shripad Dharmadhikary, Mountains of Concrete: Dam Building in the Himalayas. (Berkeley, CA: International Rivers, 2008), pp. 32–3. See also T. P. Barnett, J. C. Adam and D. P. Lettenmaier, “Potential Impacts of a Warming Climate on Water Availability in Snow–Dominated Regions,” Nature, Vol. 438 (17 November 2005).

3. P. C. D. Milly, K. A. Dunne, and A. V. Vecchia, “Global pattern of trends in stream flow and water availability in a changing climate,” Nature, Vol. 438 (17 November 2005), Figure 4, │doi:10.1038/.

4. World Bank, “Water: South Asia's Lifeline at Risk,” Statement from World Bank South Asia Region (2008). Accessible via http://web.worldbank.org. (December 21).

5. Thomas K. Joe and Sandeep Chamling Rai, “An overview of glaciers, glacier retreat, and its subsequent impacts in Nepal, India and China. (Katmandu: WWF Nepal Country Program, 2005).

6. M. R. Bhutiyani and others, “Changing stream flow patterns in the rivers of northwestern Himalaya: Implications of global warming in the 20^th century.” Current Science. Vol. 95, No. 5, (2008), pp. 618–26.

7. Ramesh Vaidya and Madhav Karki, “Sustainable Water Resource Management and Cross-Border Cooperation.” Paper for SaciWaters Conference, Colombo, Sri Lanka, (2008), p. 2.

8. Vaidya and Karki, “Sustainable Water Resource”

9. Dharmadhikary suggests that China's dam building industry is the most prolific in the world with high technical skills and government support to expand overseas. Mountains of Concrete, p. 20.

10. In, for example, Sudha Ramachandran, “India quakes over China's water plan.” Asia Times, December 9, 2008.

11. J. Bandyopadhyay, “The Himalaya: Prospects for and Constraints on Sustainable Development.” In Peter B. Stone, ed., State of the World's Mountains (London: Zed Books), p. 108.

12. Ben Crow and Nirvikar Singh, “Impediments and Innovation in International Rivers: The Waters of South Asia.” World Development, Vol. 28, No. 11 (2000), pp. 1907–25.

13. Described in Crow and Singh, “Impediments and Innovation.”

14. Ben Crow and Nirvikar Singh, “Floods and International Relations in South Asia: An Assessment of Multi-Track Diplomacy,” in Peter Mollinga, ed., Floods in South Asia: South Asia Consortium for Interdisciplinary Water Resources Studies (New Delhi: Orient Longman, forthcoming).

15. See John McDonald and Louise Diamond, Multi-Track Diplomacy: A Systems Approach to Peace, (West Hartford, CT: Kumarian Press, 1996) and Michael Bavly, “Second Track Diplomacy,” (1999). Accessible via http://www.shalam.org.

16. See Deborarh Haddad, “Re: 2-Track Diplomacy & 2-Level Games.” Accessible via http://csf.colorado.edu/forums.

17. R. T. Rosin, “The Tradition of Groundwater Irrigation in Northwestern India.” Human Ecology, Vol. 21, No. 1 (1993), pp. 51–86 and A. Agarwal and S. Narain, eds. Dying Wisdom: The rise, fall and potential of India's traditional water harvesting systems (New Delhi: Centre for Science and Environment, 1997.)

18. R. Revelle and V. Lakshminarayana, “The Ganges Water Machine.” Science, Vol. 188, No. 4188 (1975), pp. 611–6.

19. See also Ramaswamy Iyer, “India's Water Relations with her Neighbors.” Transcript of talk at the India-China Institute, New School University, New York. November 3, 2008, p. 20 on new goals and forms of cooperation among South Asian nations.

20. Formally, the four agreements are these:

i.	The India-Nepal power trade agreement (Agreement between His Majesty's Government of Nepal and the Government of India concerning the Electric Power Trade, February 17, 1996). Nepal-Press-Digest, “Agreement on Power Trade.” Nepal Press Digest, Vol. 40, No. 8 (Feb. 19, 1996).
ii.	The Mahakali Treaty (Treaty between His Majesty's Government of Nepal and the Government of India concerning the Integrated development of the Mahakali River including Sarada Barrage, Tanakpur Barrage and Pancheshwar Project, January 29, 1996). “The Mahakali Treaty: Special Report.” Nepal Press Digest, Vol. 40, No. 38 (September 16, 1996), pp. 326–8.
iii.	The India-Bangladesh Treaty on Sharing the Ganges: The Treaty Between the Government of the Republic of India and The Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh on Sharing of the Ganga/Ganges Waters at Farakka, December 12, 1996. The text of this Treaty is published in The Independent, Dhaka, December 14, 1996.
iv.	Agreement for the Tala Hydel Project signed by representatives of India and Bhutan in March 1996 (‘Bhutan and India sign Tala Hydel Project’ Kuensel 3/9/96 p. 1, 12). Ben Crow, “New Actors and New Space for Environmental Agreement,” Water Nepal, Vol. 6, No. 1 (1998), pp. 25–41 also considers these agreements. Ramaswamy Iyer, “Conflict Resolution: Three River Treaties,” unpublished manuscript (May, 1999) discusses the Mahakali and Ganges Treaties, along with the older Indus Treaty.

21. The existence of conflict over the rivers and the absence of coordination of development have made international agencies, such as the World Bank, unwilling to fund river development projects on these rivers.

22. One successful, if limited, bilateral negotiation culminated in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 between India and Pakistan. See Crow and Singh, “Impediments and Innovation,” as well as Hamir Sahni, “The Politics of Water in South Asia: The Case of the Indus Waters Treaty,” SAIS Review,– Vol. 26, No. 2 (2006), pp. 153–65.

23. L. Rose, India's regional policy: nonmilitary dimensions. In S. P. Cohen, ed., The Security of South Asia: American and Asian perspectives. (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1987.), p. 4.

24. See the discussion in section III, of conflict situations. See also L. Ohlsson, “The Role of Water and the Origins of Conflict” in L. Ohlsson, ed., Hydropolitics (London: Zed Press, 1995), pp. 22–3.

25. A more detailed description of these histories can be found in Crow and Singh, “Impediments and Innovation.”

26. Problems with the Kosi extend to the nature of downstream solutions also. Flood mitigation embankments built in northern Bihar state have contributed to permanent waterlogging. Natural flooding has perhaps been replaced with a worse outcome. Kalpana Sharma, “Harnessing Rivers – II,” The Hindu, (April 28, 1999). Accessible via http://www.panos.org.np/programmes. The problem here is not transboundary spillovers, but simply one of neglecting the knowledge and interests of local experts and residents. In this sense, one can argue that a multi-track approach is warranted as well for purely internal flood mitigation issues.

27. See Shripad Dharmadhikary, “Hydel Power in the Indian North East: Massive Dam Plans for Arunachal,” India Together, March 3 2008; Rajeev Bhattacharyya, “World Bank to Aid Hydel Projects,” The Telegraph, August 5, 2004; Shahidul Islam Chowdhury, “Delhi to Revive Tipaimukh Hydel Project Upstream of Meghna: Bangladesh and Parts of India to Face ‘Disastrous Effects,’” New Age, September 17, 2004; Kathmandu Post, “Abandoning Arun III a mistake,” Kantipur Online, June 8, 2005; Bikash Sangraula, “China Bank to Invest $1 bn in West Seti,” Kantipur (2006) Accessible via http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnews

28. Dharmadhikary, “Hydel Power.”

29. IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency), “IRNA India-China”, IRNA, April 5, 2005. Available via http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/china/2005/china-050405-irna0l.htm

30. Anil Sasi, “Upper Siang Project Likely to be Relocated on Chinese Concerns” The Hindu. Friday, March 24, 2006.

31. Dharmadhikary, “Hydel Power.”

32. Dharmadhikary, “Mountains of Concrete,” Table 3.

33. Tashi Tsering, Hydrologic: Water for Human Development. An Analysis of China's Water Management and Politics. (Tibet: Tibet Justice Center, 2002), p. 22.

34. Achin Vanaik, “The New Himalayan Republic” New Left Review. Vol. 49, (January/February 2008), pp. 47–76.

35. India/China, “Joint Declaration by the Republic of India and the People's Republic of China 21 November 2006.” China Report, Vol. 43, No. 1 (2007), p. 118.

36. India/China, “Joint Declaration”, p. 119.

37. Vaidya and Karki, “Sustainable Water Resource”; see also Crow and Singh, “Impediments and Innovation.”

38. As noted before, we do not exclude related environmental improvements such as reforestation and soil stabilization.

39. A loose analogy may be made with eBay, which provides a range of services that facilitate transactions, including information, tools for sellers and buyers, disclosure requirements, and other regulatory restraints.

40. Shah, communication, SaciWater Conference on Integrated Water Resource Management, Colombo, Sri Lanka, December 2008.

41. A parallel suggestion for an independent body to deal with South Asian environmental issues was made by a report to the UNDP (Geoff Romm, Leo Rose, and Ben Crow, Report to UNDP on South Asian Rivers, unpublished consultancy report [1997]). The case for a regulatory body is made more pressing than it was in that report by the issues of China's development of the Tsangpo and the uncertainties raised by climate change and glacial melting.

42. Several of these features may be found in the structure of ICIMOD as well.

43. Sahni, “The Politics of Water.”