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Research Article

Navigating “maximum pressure”: the India-Iran-US relationship under the Trump presidency

Pages 196-206 | Published online: 15 Mar 2023
 

ABSTRACT

The article highlights the convergence and divergence between US and India regarding Iran during the Trump administration and makes the following arguments. First, as Trump’s hard line on Iran was viewed negatively by India, New Delhi took measures to assert its longheld tradition of “strategic autonomy” in foreign policy which could not be ignored by the U.S. establishment despite Trump’s personal choices. Second, as Iran responded to the Trump’s hardening policies by gravitating toward China, the Trump administration became slightly more sensitive toward the complexities of IranChina bonhomie for Indian diplomacy. Third, although India was forced to cut back on importing Iranian oil due to sanctions in mid-2019, American officials began to view India-Iran-Afghanistan collaboration on the Chabahar port project as an opportunity to boost the Afghan economy, and exempted the project from sanctions. The article concludes that despite strong divergences on Iran, the Trump administration came to pursue a combination of pressure and engagement with India to reduce divergence on Iran.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 For a more detailed analysis see the “Introduction” to the special issue.

2 Mushtaq Hussain, “Indo-Iranian Relations during the Cold War,” Strategic Analysis 36, no. 6 (2012): 859–870.

3 C. Christine Fair, “India and Iran: New Delhi’s Balancing Act,” The Washington Quarterly 30, no. 3 (2007): 145–159; Shebonti Ray Dadwal, “India–Iran Energy Ties: A Balancing Act,” Strategic Analysis 36, no. 6 (2012).

4 David Brewster, “India and the Persian Gulf: Locked out or staying out?,” Comparative Strategy 35, no. 1 (2016): 58–71.

5 Zahid Shahab Ahmed and Stuti Bhatnagar, “The India-Iran-Pakistan Triad: Comprehending the Correlation of Geo-economics and Geopolitics,” Asian Studies Review 42, no. 3 (2018): 517–536; P. R. Kumaraswamy, “India’s Energy Dilemma with Iran,” South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies 36, no. 2 (2013): 288–296.

6 Uma Purushothaman, “American Shadow over India–Iran Relations,” Strategic Analysis 36, no. 6 (2012): 899–910.

7 Louise Fawcett & Andrew Payne, “Stuck on a hostile path? US policy towards Iran since the revolution,” Contemporary Politics. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2022.2029239.

8 Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson, “Trump’s Dangerous Obsession With Iran,” Foreign Affairs, August 13, 2018, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2018-08-13/trumps-dangerous-obsession-iran.

9 “Iran nuclear deal: Trump pulls US out in break with Europe allies,” BBC, May 9, 2018; “Trump Advisers Made a ‘Dumb Bet’, Zarif Says of US JCPOA Withdrawal,” Tasnim News Agency, June 5, 2020.

10 RotemNusem, “A Year of Readjustment: The Trump Administration’s New Policy on Israel and Iran,” Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs 12, no. 1 (2018): 55–64.

11 Daniel Estrin, “Trump son-in-law’s ties to Israel raise questions of bias,” The Times of Israel, March 25, 2017, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-son-in-laws-ties-to-israel-raise-questions-of-bias/.

12 DovWaxman,“The Pro-Israel Lobby in the United States,” in Israel and the United States: Six Decades of US-Israeli Relations, ed. Robert O. Freedman (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2012); Eric Lichtblau and Mark Landler, “Hawks Steering Debate on How to Take On Iran,” New York Times, March 18, 2012.

13 Louise Fawcett and Andrew Payne, “Stuck on a hostile path? US policy towards Iran since the revolution,” Contemporary Politics, https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2022.2029239.

14 Chintamani Mahapatra, “US–Iran Nuclear Deal: Cohorts and Challenger,” Contemporary Review of the Middle East 3, no. 1 (March 2016): 36–46.

15 Matthew Kroenig, “The Return to the Pressure Track: The Trump Administration and the Iran Nuclear Deal,” Diplomacy & Statecraft 29, no. 1 (2018): 94–104.

16 Ilan Goldenberg, “Kushner’s Peace Plan Is a Disaster Waiting to Happen,” Foreign Policy, June 25, 2018.

17 Mahan Abedin, Iran Resurgent: The Rise and Rise of the Shia State, (London: C. Hurst & Co, 2019): 163.

18 PTI, “India to pay in rupees for Iranian oil from November,” Economic Times, September 20, 2018.

19 Shubhajit Roy, “US ends waiver for Iran oil, India second biggest buyer after China,” Indian Express, April 23, 2019, https://indianexpress.com/article/india/us-ends-waiver-for-iran-oil-india-second-biggest-buyer-after-china-5689393/.

20 Victor Mallet, “India to bypass Pakistan on the road to Central Asia,” Financial Times, May 24, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/8510176c-2188-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d.

21 Neil Bhatiya, “Iran May Have a Lot of Friends in a Future Sanctions Fight With the United States,” World Politics Review, August 30, 2017, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/23023/iran-may-have-a-lot-of-friends-in-a-future-sanctions-fight-with-the-united-states.

22 Anubhav Gupta, “Tensions, Many Exacerbated by Trump, Overshadow High-Level U.S. Talks in India,” World Politics Review, September 6, 2018, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/25771/tensions-many-exacerbated-by-trump-overshadow-high-level-u-s-talks-in-india.

23 “Exploring alternative oil supplies for ‘our friend India’: US,” The Week, September 29, 2018, https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2018/09/29/Exploring-alternative-oil-supplies-for-our-friend-India-US.html.

24 Bill Chappell, “U.S. Won’t Renew Sanction Exemptions For Countries Buying Iran’s Oil,” NPR, April 22, 2019, https://www.npr.org/2019/04/22/715938722/u-s-wont-renew-sanction-exemptions-for-countries-buying-irans-oil.

25 John Bolton, The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir, (Simon & Schuster, 2020).

26 Samir Saran and Richard Verma, “Strategic Convergence: The United States and India as Major Defence Partners,” Observer Research Foundation, June 2019, https://www.orfonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Strategic-Convergence1.pdf.

27 Richard Fontaine, “U.S.-India Relations: The Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy Bright Spot,” War on the rocks, January 24, 2019, https://warontherocks.com/2019/01/u-s-india-relations-the-trump-administrations-foreign-policy-bright-spot/.

28 Tanvi Madan, “Trump tightens sanctions on Iran’s oil exports – How India will respond,” Brookings, April 23, 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/04/23/trump-tightens-sanctions-on-irans-oil-exports-how-india-will-respond/.

29 Sumitha Narayanan Kutty, “Dealing with Differences: The Iran Factor in India-U.S. Relations,” Asia Policy 14, no. 1 (January 2019): 95–118.

30 Jeff Smith, “India-US ties were paralysed 7 years ago. But Modi-Trump moved farther than others before,” The Print, February 21, 2020, https://theprint.in/opinion/india-us-ties-were-paralyzed-7-years-ago-but-modi-trump-moved-farther-than-others-before/368714/.

31 Saeid Jafari, “Trump Has Pushed Iran Into China’s Arms,” Foreign Policy, August 8, 2020; Wesley Dockery, “Trump’s Iran policy pushes Tehran into the arms of China,” DW, June 8, 2018, https://www.dw.com/en/trumps-iran-policy-pushes-tehran-into-the-arms-of-china/a-44024702.

32 Alex Vatanka, “China’s Great Game in Iran,” Foreign Policy, September 5, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/05/chinas-great-game-in-iran.

33 Mohsen Solhdoost, “Iran’s geo-strategic orientations toward China and India,” Journal of the Indian Ocean Region 17, no. 1 (2021): 60–77.

34 Sumitha Narayanan Kutty, “India’s Iran Policy: CivilisationalPast,Complicated Present,” in Aparna Pande (ed.), Routledge Handbook on South Asian Foreign Policy, London:Routledge, 2021, p. 211.

35 Sima Baidya, “India’s Policy towards Iran: Reflection of Intentions, Ambiguities and Complexities,” International Studies 54, no. 1–4, (2018): 148.

36 Zoe Leung and Hari Prasad, “Why Continued Indian Engagement With Iran Is in America’s Interest,” The Diplomat, October 23, 2018.

37 Rezaul Laskar, “Qassem Soleimani killing: Strike could snowball conflict,” Hindustan Times, January 4, 2020; Associated Press, “Donald Trump campaign seizes on Soleimani killing,” India Today, January 8, 2020.

38 Suhasini Haidar, “India caught in the crossfire as Trump invokes Delhi post Soleimani killing,” The Hindu, January 4, 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/trump-invoking-delhi-after-soleimani-killing-puts-new-delhi-in-a-fix/article30479336.ece.

39 Ministry of External Affairs, “Killing of a senior Iranian leader by the US,” Government of India, January 3, 2020, https://mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/32251/Killing_of_a_senior_Iranian_leader_by_the_US.

40 Tanvi Madan, “India’s reaction to the killing of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani,” Brookings, January 3, 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/01/03/indias-reaction-to-the-killing-of-iranian-commander-qassem-soleimani/.

41 Harsh V. Pant, “If India is losing Iran, Tehran too is responsible for dip in ties,” The Print, July 24, 2020, https://theprint.in/opinion/if-india-is-losing-iran-tehran-too-is-responsible-for-dip-in-ties/467483/.

42 P.S. Raghavan, “What is in a NAM and India’s alignment,” The Hindu, September 9, 2020.

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