This Changes Nothing: The Paris Agreement to Ignore Reality

Abstract

At the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Paris, France, 30 November to 11 December 2015, an Agreement was reached by the international community including 195 countries. The Agreement has been hailed, by participants and the media, as a major turning point for policy in the struggle to address human-induced climate change. The following is a short critical commentary in which I briefly explain why the Paris Agreement changes nothing. I highlight how the Agreement has been reached by removing almost all substantive issues concerning the causes of human-induced climate change and offers no firm plans of action. Instead of substantive cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as soon as possible, the intentions of the parties promise escalation of damages and treat worst-case scenarios as an acceptable 50:50 chance. The Paris Agreement signifies commitment to sustained industrial growth, risk management over disaster prevention, and future inventions and technology as saviour. The primary commitment of the international community is to maintain the current social and economic system. The result is denial that tackling GHG emissions is incompatible with sustained economic growth. The reality is that Nation States and international corporations are engaged in an unremitting and ongoing expansion of fossil fuel energy exploration, extraction and combustion, and the construction of related infrastructure for production and consumption. The targets and promises of the Paris Agreement bear no relationship to biophysical or social and economic reality.

Keywords:

• climate change
• public policy
• UNFCCC
• COP

Notes

1 The 2°C target for global warming is associated by the UNFCCC with stabilising GHGs at 450 part per million (ppm) CO₂ equivalent. Their website’s facts page states this, but then misleadingly reports the current CO₂ alone (not equivalent) level as currently 398.58 parts per million. As of 2012, the total radiative forcing by all long-lived GHGs already in the atmosphere corresponded to a CO₂ equivalent concentration of 475.6 parts per million (World Meteorological Organisation reported on their website [http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_980_en.html]; accessed 3 May 2015). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concurs with this, reporting the atmospheric concentrations in CO₂ equivalents as of 2014 to be 481 ppm, of which 397 is stated to be CO₂ alone (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/; accessed 21 January 2016). The level of CO₂ alone was reported by the World Meteorological Organisation as first surpassing 400ppm in the atmosphere in 2012 (Howard, 2014). Concentrations are rising at approximately 3 ppm per year.

2 ‘A 2 degrees Celsius/Centigrade rise in global temperatures from pre-industrial levels is the highest rise we can afford if we want a 50% chance of avoiding the worst effects of climate change’ (UNFCCC [http://unfccc.int/essential_background/basic_facts_figures/items/6246.php]; accessed 8 January 2016). Note that this statement conflates the probability of achieving 2°C with the probability of the worst effects, that is, even achieving 2°C with certainty leaves uncertain the impacts that temperature entails.

3 The excess of three times is based upon large conservative estimates of the available remaining budget, namely 1400 Gt of CO₂, under a 50% chance of achieving 2°C (Raupach et al., 2014, p. 874). IPCC (2013) calculations are much lower, but even these have been criticised as neither up-to-date (referencing 2011) nor adequately taking into account non-energy emissions which reduce the amount left for fossil fuels. Doing so leads Anderson (2015) to estimate the remaining budget for energy emissions over the period 2015–2100, at about 650 Gt of CO₂ for a ‘likely’ (66%) chance of staying below 2°C. On this basis, the excess of reserves is over 6 times the available budget. Going down to 1.5°C and/or increasing the chance of achieving the target increase(s) the excess even further.

4 The commitments already made to exploiting new fossil fuel sources by 2012 were estimated as leading to the release of 300 Gt CO₂ equivalent between 2012 and 2050 (Meindertsma & Blok, 2012). This is being added to the existing excess of unburnable stocks for the 2°C target (McGlade & Ekins, 2015); see also previous note.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Clive L. Spash

Professor Clive L. Spash holds the Chair of Public Policy & Governance at WU in Vienna and is Editor-in-Chief of Environmental Values. He has conducted research on climate change economics and policy for over 25 years and his work in the area includes the book Greenhouse economics: Value and ethics as well as numerous articles. His critique of carbon trading was the subject of attempted censorship while he was a senior civil servant at the CSIRO in Australia. More information can be found at www.clivespash.org.