Brazilian foreign policy for the war in Ukraine: changing non-alignment, counterfactual, and future perspectives

ABSTRACT

The current paper analyses the Brazilian foreign policy towards the war in Ukraine, from the tensions preceding the invasion until the first half of the war's second year. Since the conflict began, Brazil was governed by two sharply contrasting administrations, neither of which clearly aligned with one side of the conflict. It is argued, however, that while Bolsonaro assumed an inert attitude, Lula undertook a proactive non-alignment. As proposed by this forum, this article presents three counterfactuals, exploring how the Brazilian position could have been different, and outlines future perspectives based on three uncertainties: (1) will Brazil be recognized as a viable mediator? (2) will Brazil explicitly choose a side in the conflict?; (3) will Brazil continue to be engaged with this agenda?

KEYWORDS:

• Brazil
• Foreign Policy
• War in Ukaine
• Future Scenarios

Acknowledgments

David P. Succi Junior received funding for this research from São Paulo State University (UNESP) Pro-Rectory for Research (PROPe 13/2022).

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Universidade Estadual Paulista: [Grant Number: PROPe13/2022].

Notes on contributors

Bárbara Vasconcellos de Carvalho Motta

Bárbara Vasconcellos de Carvalho Motta: Assistant Professor at Federal University of Sergipe. PhD in International Relations at the Graduate School of International Relations ‘San Tiago Dantas’ (UNESP/UNICAMP/PUC-SP). Associated Researcher at the Defense and International Security Studies Group (GEDES). Coordinator of the Brazilian Foreign Policy Observatory. Current research interests in Brazilian and US Foreign Policy, International Security, and Right Wing Movements. Email: [email protected]

David Paulo Succi Junior

David Paulo Succi Junior: Postdoctoral Researcher at the Institute of Public Policies and International Relations of the São Paulo State University (UNESP). Associated Researcher at Defense and International Security Study Group (GEDES) Group for the Elaboration of Scenarios and Future Studies (GECEF, and Strategic Autonomy, Technology, and Defense Research Network (PAET&D). Email: [email protected]