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ABSTRACT
The war in Ukraine has three possible pathways. One is conflict resolution but it does not appear likely. The second is a prolonged conflict. The third is a deceleration into a global nuclear conflict.
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Notes
1 In that piece Kissinger (Citation2014), he also writes that Ukraine should be free to join the EU. Since they joined the EU in 1995, Finland and Sweden had no longer been neutral, just militarily non-aligned.
2 This claim may not be easy to prove or verify, but for example, the Forsberg-Patomäki debate regarding these events indicates that the expansion of NATO might have been essential despite the multiplicity of contributing factors to the dramatic events and turns in Ukraine in 2013–2014 (factors included the euro crisis, economic crisis social antagonisms in Ukraine, controversial association agreement with the EU, and the West’s support for the Euromaidan protests). As the latter writes, ‘[i]t seems probable that, for Russia, Yanukovych served as insurance against Ukrainian NATO membership’ (Forsberg & Patomäki, Citation2023, p. 39).
3 It should be noted that there are recent cases where the peace process has included the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the frontline, exchange of prisoners, and/or a demilitarized zone under the UN supervision, such as the Korean military agreement on crisis stability in 2018 and the US-Taliban 2020 peace agreement.
4 Some even predict and prescribe the end of the NPT, as it has not delivered on disarmament (see Pretorius & Sauer, Citation2022).
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Notes on contributors
Sundeep Waslekar
Sundeep Waslekar is a thought leader in the global future. He has worked with sixty-five countries under the auspices of the Strategic Foresight Group, an international think tank he founded in 2002. He is the author of A World without War published by HarperCollins India (2022). He is a practitioner of Track Two diplomacy since the 1990s and has mediated in conflicts in South Asia, those between Western and Islamic countries on deconstructing terror, trans-boundary water conflicts, and is currently facilitating a nuclear risk reduction dialogue between permanent members of the UN Security Council. He was invited to address the United Nations Security Council session 7818 on water, peace and security. He has been quoted in more than 3,000 media articles from eighty countries. Waslekar read Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE) at Oxford University from 1981 to 1983. He was conferred D. Litt. (Honoris Causa) of Symbiosis International University by the President of India in 2011.