Turkey and the Russian invasion of Ukraine: an interplay of bloc (de)formation, recognition and asymmetric interdependencies?

ABSTRACT

This piece answers some of the issues (such as the potential emergence of new blocs, the role of interdependencies, and Western recognition) raised in Debating the War in Ukraine by examining Turkey’s role in the war in Ukraine. It argues that Turkey’s somewhat balanced policy in the war, trying to please both Ukraine and Russia, stems from three main considerations. First, Turkey’s economic and strategic asymmetric interdependency (in Syria) on Russia prevents Turkey from taking actions that might run against Russian interests in the war in Ukraine. Second, Turkey’s balanced attitude legitimizes Turkey’s position to undertake mediation efforts to end the war, fulfill the global leadership role envisioned by the JDP-led Turkey, and also has the potential to garner Turkey some Western recognition, which might not be domestically translated. Finally, the balanced attitude is also a well-poised strategy for Turkey to garner a stake in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine.

KEYWORDS:

• War in Ukraine
• Russia
• Ukraine
• Turkey
• rising powers
• asymmetric interdependencies

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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Lerna K. Yanık

Lerna K. Yanık is professor of Political Science and Public Administration at Kadir Has University. She received her B.A. from Boğaziçi University and Ph.D. from Georgetown University and has previously worked at Bilkent University, in Ankara, Turkey, before joining Kadir Has University in 2011. She was a visiting Fulbright scholar at the City University of New York’s Graduate Center in 2009–2010 and was Derek Brewer Visiting Fellow at Emmanuel College, University of Cambridge for Michaelmas Term 2017 and a visiting scholar in the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Cambridge in 2017–2018 and was the first prizewinner of the 2006 Sakıp Sabancı International Research Award.

Lerna has authored more than twenty-five academic articles and book chapters exploring politics of time and space, spatial politics and non-Western international relations theory, critical geopolitics and politics and culture with a focus on Turkey. Her research has been funded by TUBITAK (2009–2012), (2021–2024) and she has published in journals such as International Studies Review, Third World Quarterly and Cooperation and Conflict, Journal of International Relations and Development, Die Welt des Islams, Uluslararası Ilişkiler, Asian Journal of Social Sciences, International Journal, Political Geography, Geopolitics, Turkish Studies, Middle East Journal of Culture and Communication, Human Rights Quarterly, Europe-Asia Studies. Her current research focuses on political imaginaries and narratives created by instrumentalizing space and time and how these imaginaries and narratives take a guiding role in policy making both at the domestic and international level.