There are only a very few regions in the world which have advanced so fast both economically and technologically as the Asia-Pacific in the past few decades. Probably this is one of the reasons why several countries in the region have gained confidence, sharpened their diplomatic tone, increased their defence expenditure, invested into military capabilities, and questioned both the local and global status-quo. The region contains emerging powers, far-reaching ambitions, threatening rhetoric, rising political tensions, and concerns about military conflicts. Factors that show that critical issues are at stake, the reopening of long-forgotten debates, are more relevant than ever and masses of uncertainties are yet to be resolved.
Indisputably these are history-shaping years, and only time will tell how these countries will find the answers to the challenges they face, how the major actors will behave in the global arena, and how they will rewrite the rules of international relations. Ergo, the world as we know it. What is certain however is that whatever happens in this region, the spill-over effects will affect not only the neighbourhood, but also likely the globe. Therefore, understanding the Asia-Pacific, the issues that are about to surface, the trends, and the actors are essential and vital for the future.
We have crafted this special edition for readers to be better informed about this divided, but also increasingly important Asia-Pacific region. Further, to help readers gain insight into this part of the world through the lenses of leading experts.
The issue sets the stage with articles that provide an in-depth overview of the region, then continues with papers that focus on specific countries and problems, and finally ends with a work on future scenarios. We would have liked to cover as many countries as possible in Asia-Pacific. This special edition addresses, inter alia, the following countries: China, India, Malaysia, North and South Korea, and the Philippines. The edition covers three main themes: (1) Security threats, (2) Defence policies and military capabilities, (3) Defence industry and arms trade.
The articles cover the following questions:
Security threats
When it comes to security concerns, what makes China the “elephant in the room”?
What are the critical challenges with the growing importance of national waters?
How has the USA and other nations in the region responded to the threats?
What are the motivations of territorial claims in the South East Asian region?
What is the role of archaeology in these disputes?
How does site evidence become politicised to justify political, economic, and military manoeuvres of territorial claims in the Asia-Pacific region?
What would a future maritime conflict in the Indo-Pacific looks like?
Can analogies substitute for strategy?
Do analogies and past incidents conjure up accurate and instructive lessons that provide insights into possible futures?
Defence policies and military capabilities
What are the elements and objectives of the Philippine’s unique D3 paradigm?
How have the D3 paradigms evolved over time?
Why do these policies perform poorly and have less than positive outcomes?
How to achieve a reunited, natural Korea?
What would the security dynamics look like amongst the two Koreas and their respective security partners?
How would a dual neutralisation of the two Koreas be beneficial to the China-DPRK and USA–ROK security pair?
Defence industry and arms trade
In what sense does the ROK’s KFP and FX-I fighter jet programmes differ from each other?
Why is it so difficult for the ROKAF to run effective practices in overseas procurement activities?
How would the ROK be able to advance the effectiveness of its fighter jet projects?
Can India achieve its goals and join the ranks of other major arms exporting countries?
What would it take for India to realise its defence export goals?
What has India done to achieve these goals?
What is technological absorption capability (TAC) in the international defence acquisition and collaboration context?
What are the determinants for successful TAC in an international acquisition and collaboration environment?
What are the challenges for technological absorption?
Brief summary of the studies
Starting with the big picture, the special edition begins with an overview on the current trends and most important threats in the Asia-Pacific region. In “The Security Environment in the Asia-Pacific: The Context for Arming” article by Richard A. Bitzinger critically analyses the main stakeholders, the security challenges, the territorial disputes, and how these factors’ affect the region’s military modernisation programmes. The fact that several key actors’ drive for great power status is clearly visible and undeniable. The article also discusses the consequences from the shifting security dynamics in the region.
Truly game changing times at various levels. China focuses on new types of armament, significantly improves its weaponry’s accuracy and lethality, extends its maritime and airborne warfighting capabilities. While – as a reaction to Beijing’s increasing fourth-generation jet fighter fleet – actors like Japan and South Korea are about to acquire fifth-generation F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. The article argues that all of which is to defend their national interest, and to maintain or strengthen their geopolitical position.
Speaking of geopolitics, this phenomenon that cannot be fully understood without digging deeper into the geographical and archaeological context. This is especially the case in the Asia-Pacific region where geographics is one of the main motivations behind the territorial claims. This subject is covered from an interdisciplinary perspective in the article by Luke Hally in “The Politicisation of Archaeology in Border Demarcation Conflict in the Asia Pacific Region” study. The article addresses challenging issues such as the Chinese claims in the South China sea, the Thai-Cambodian temple disputes, and Japanese and Korean territorial island claims. These are difficult issues that fuel the political debates and directly deteriorates the regional- and indirectly the global stability.
In fact, since history and culture have essential roles in the above-mentioned conflicts, reaching a consensus is more difficult than it seems for the first sight. In those complex cases, it becomes harder when ambitious actors try to secure their geopolitical position by using archaeological methods to legitimate further their claims over the disputed territories in the South China Sea.
History has been identified as one of the major external security threats that makes the Philippines’ position so unique. After 76 years of independence and the signing if of the Treaty of Manila (declaration of independence), the Philippines still suffers from external aggression as well as several internal security challenges. The article on the “Philippine Defence, Development and Disaster Security Paradigm” by Ava Avila and Ron Matthews deals with these issues. The study gives an overview of the Philippine history, outlines the main challenges the country faces, the driving forces behind the policies, and details the elements of the D3 paradigm.
The security policy analysis shows that history cannot be separated from the contemporary situation and there is still a lot more to do to achieve positive outcomes. This is especially the case when it comes to military modernisation, funding, or nation-building related issues. Philippines’s case perfectly demonstrates what problems arise in a relatively new state and how desperately important it is to reach consensus, and effective civil–military and civil-governmental co-operation.
Then there is the Northern part of the Asia-Pacific, the Korean Peninsula, where North and South remain technically at war. Therefore, there are still many security threats that cannot be swept under the carpet. Nuclear proliferation, unpredictable regional turbulences, and complex international influences on the actors are just some of the issues that have been shaping the public discourse for decades. The article on the “Dual-Neutrality for the Koreas: A Two-Pronged Approach Toward Reunification” by Pascal Lottaz and Heinz Gaertner tries to offer solutions to end the war and solve the security threats. The article provides solutions that take into consideration both the geopolitical situation, and the main stakeholders’ interests. Moreover, this paper also gives suggestions that are extensively built on previous conflict management practices and on the know-how from political resolutions of other crisis situations. Besides, historical examples that may or may not come handy when it comes to peaceful reunification is also presented.
On the topic of Korean peninsula, yet another significant issue is the ongoing military modernisation. The article on “Evaluating Civil–Military Relationship for Effective Procurement Decision-Making: the Case of Two Fighter Jet Procurements of the Republic of Korea” by Haneol Lee analyses the acquisition processes’ strengths and weaknesses by focusing on both the selection procedure and on the different decisions’ outcomes.
The article covers diverse topics that encompass a large body of knowledge about fighter jet programmes, selection criteria, maintenance, technology-transfer, and management. In fact, acquiring of, and agreeing on, the most advanced armaments and enhancement of the national technological base at the same time is one of the toughest challenge civil and military leaders used to face.
Although, it sounds simple, transfer of technology (TOT) has never been an easy objective to reach. It is no different in international defence trade, where although TOT’s importance is undoubtable, governments regularly under-estimate the challenges they face and struggle to understand the factors necessary for success. In fact, despite these ambitions, there is often a considerable gap between what the technology suppliers can offer and the host nation’s real TAC – which further complicates the bilateral relations and the industrial co-operation.
Not surprising at all. Especially, because there are several challenges to be met to implement successfully foreign technologies and there are less known, but critical factors that impact the host nation’s capability to absorb the new knowledge.
Based on in-depth interviews with stakeholders, the study about the “Challenges in buyer-supplier relationship for technological absorption capability” by the editors focuses on these factors and offers recommendations on how to improve TAC. Since the process is complex, the technology donor–recipient relationship must be genuine at every level from the state to the industry. Actors must have a clear strategy, roadmap, and technology requirements from the very beginning. Not to mention the fundamental preconditions, like proper infrastructure and knowledge, without which the projects can easily run aground.
The natural progression to demonstrate industrial prowess is when nations progress from mere domestic production capability to exports and international trade. India has newly joined the ranks of major defence exporters and today India as the world’s top 25th defence exporter – is concerned about its arms export capabilities. The “Made in India: An Aspiring Brand in Global Arms Bazaar” article by Laxman Kumar Behera offers insight into New Delhi’s ambitious plans, reforms, challenges, and most recent achievements. Moreover, the article sets an overview on the initiatives and policies that aim to boost the country’s defence materiel production and international presence in the arms markets.
Considering India’s size, its long history of national arms production, the “Make in India” programme – to make and promote companies to develop and assemble products in the country – it is a logical decision to enter the international markets. In fact, since the demand for arms globally is growing, and quickly so, New Delhi’s objectives is not too far away from realisation.
Concerning the future, history is one of the greatest educators. The “Imagining Maritime Conflict in the Indo-Pacific: Can Analogies Substitute for Strategy?” article by James J. Wirtz takes a similar approach to analyse if we can predict the nature of future military conflict using previous examples. As it turns out, military thinking does not consider all scenarios and there is a very little knowledge about the use of unconventional weapons or about grey-zone incidents. Not to mention those cases, when “high” and “low” intensity maritime conflicts in form of hybrid-warfare simultaneously happen at the same time.
We hope that this collection of essays furthers and deepens the understanding of Asian security for the benefit of the journal’s readership.