https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8340-549X
![Sample our Politics & International Relations journals, sign in here to start your FREE access for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5947/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Politics-International-Relations.jpg"})
ABSTRACT
Russia is not a superpower, and it is not a conventional great power either. Russia is a balancing great power (balancer), which since 2007 has been purposefully offsetting western influence in the international system and attempting to resist Western (American) hegemony. The paper develops the argument that the failed aggression against Ukraine has very significantly limited Russia’s ability to use available balancing techniques. Ukraine has clearly opted for a Western orientation because Russia has entirely lost its appeal. Russian positions in Central Asia and the Caucasus are weakened. In both areas, Russia must confront the growing activities of the EU, the US, China, and Turkey. Russia’s ability to manage an equilibrium between China and India in Asia is diminishing as it can no longer export sophisticated weapons. Russia’s conventional military capabilities have been significantly reduced. All in all, Russia’s relative position among the other great powers has deteriorated significantly.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Елена Мухаметшина. ‘Три четверти россиян считают советскую эпоху лучшей в истории страны. Ведомости’, Ведомости, March 24, 2020. https://www.vedomosti.ru/society/articles/2020/03/23/825985-tri-chetverti.
2 Ingmar Oldberg, ‘Russia’s Great Power Ambitions and Policy Under Putin’, in Russia, ed. Roger E. Kanet (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007). https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230590489_2.
3 Kathleen J. Hancock, ‘Russia: Great Power Image Versus Economic Reality’. Asian Perspective 31, no. 4 (2007): 71–98. http://www.jstor.org/stable/42704609.
4 Statista Research Department, ‘Do you regret the dissolution of the USSR?’, Statista, January 17, 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1128057/russia-opinion-on-dissolution-of-the-ussr-by-age/.
5 Sergei Lavrov, ‘Russia’s Foreign Policy in a Historical Perspective’, Russia in Global Affairs, no. 2, April/June 2016. https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/russias-foreign-policy-in-a-historical-perspective/.
6 Veronika D’Evereux, ‘K některým mezinárodněprávním otázkám spojeným s agresí Ruské federace vůči Ukrajině’. Defence and Strategy 22, no. 1 (2022): 113-30.
7 Andrei Kokoshin, ‘What is Russia: a Superpower, a Great Power or a Regional Power’. International Affairs: A Russian Journal, no. 6 (2002). https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/iarj/iarj_02_06a.html.
8 Oleg K. Petrovich-Belkin, Arkadiy A. Eremin, and Svetlana A. Bokeriya. 2019. ‘The Decline of Russia’s Influence in the Post-Soviet Region and the Reasons behind It’. Comparative politics Russia 10, no. 3 (2019). doi:10.24411/2221-3279-2019-10032.
9 Anna Mkhoyan, ‘Soft Power, Russia and the Former Soviet States: A Case Study of Russian Language and Education in Armenia’, International Journal of Cultural Policy 23, no. 6 (2017): 690–704. doi:10.1080/10286632.2016.1251426.
10 Michael Sheehan, ‘The Place of the Balancer in Balance of Power Theory’. Review of International Studies 15, no. 2, 1989, pp. 123–34.
11 Kai He and Huiyun Feng, ‘If Not Soft Balancing, Then What? Reconsidering Soft Balancing and U.S. Policy Toward China’, Security Studies 17, no. 2 (2008): 372–4.
12 President of Russia Official Web Site, ‘Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development’, February 4, 2022. http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770.
13 Bruce P. Jackson, ‘The ‘Soft War’ For Europe’s East’, Hoover Institution, June 1, 2006, https://www.hoover.org/research/soft-war-europes-east.
14 Kirill Petrov, ‘Elites and Color Revolutions: The Logic of Russia’s Response’, Russian Politics 5, no. 4 (2020): 426-53. doi: https://doi.org/10.30965/24518921-00504003.
15 Dmitri Trenin, ‘Russia Leaves the West’, Foreign Affairs 85, no. 4 (2006): 87–96.
16 Statista Research Department, ‘Arms exports from Russia from 2017 to 2021, by country’. Statista, March 17, 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296249/russia-arms-exports-by-country/.
17 Eric S. Edelman, Vlad Kobets, and David J. Kramer. ‘Ukraine and Belarus Are Fighting the Same War’, Foreign Policy, February 7, 2023. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/07/belarus-putin-lukashenko-russia-ukraine-war/.
18 Vladimír Bízik, Dominika Kosárová, Adam Potočňák, and Richard Stojar, ‘Hybrid Interference: from the Particular to a Continuum’, Obrana a Strategie 22, no. 1 (2022): 85–6. doi:10.3849/1802-7199.22.2022.01.075-088.
19 Vladimir Putin, ‘On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians’, President of Russia Official Web Sites, July 12, 2021. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181.
20 Statista Research Department, ‘How do you feel about Russia in general now?’, Statista, December 2, 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1007552/ukraine-public-opinion-toward-russia/.
21 Антон Грушецьки, ‘Обстріли росією українських міст: продовження збройної боротьби чи перехід до переговорів’, Київський Міжнародний Інститут Соціології, October 24, 2022. https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang = ukr&cat = reports&id = 1151&page = 1&fbclid = IwAR0RPVcXmOF5o3itWa88UN3m3mldNot95K8iSQvlwIgglg7Q7honvjSLpR4.
22 RJ Reinhart, ‘Ukrainians Support Fighting Until Victory’. Gallup, October 18, 2022 https://news.gallup.com/poll/403133/ukrainians-support-fighting-until-victory.aspx.
23 Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, ‘Attitudes towards Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO, attitudes towards direct talks with Vladimir Putin and the perception of the military threat from Russia: the results of a telephone survey conducted on December 13-16, 2021’, December 24, 2021. https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1083.
24 Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, ‘How the War Changed the Way Ukrainians Think About Friends, Enemies, and the Country's Strategic Goals’. 30 May, 2022, https://dif.org.ua/en/article/how-the-war-changed-the-way-ukrainians-think-about-friends-enemies-and-the-countrys-strategic-goals.
25 Statista Research Department, ‘Imagine that a referendum on Ukraine's NATO accession is currently taking place. How would you vote?, Statista, November 16, 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1284794/ukraine-opinion-on-nato-accession/.
26 Statista Research Department, ‘Imagine that a referendum on Ukraine's accession to the European Union (EU) is currently taking place. How would you vote?’ Statista, November 16, 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1284801/ukraine-opinion-on-eu-accession/.
27 Daniel B. Shapiro, ‘Zelenskyy wants Ukraine to be ‘a big Israel.’ Here’s a road map’, Atlantic Council. April 6, 2022. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/zelenskyy-wants-ukraine-to-be-a-big-israel-heres-a-road-map/.
28 Nicholas Velazquez, ‘Kazakhstan Pivots from Russia amid Ukraine War’, Geopolitical Monitor, July 14, 2022. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/kazakhstan-pivots-from-russia-amid-ukraine-war/.
29 ‘“We Don’t Call It Annexation”, Kazakh Leader Says of Crimea’. The Moscow Times, December 4, 2019. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/12/04/we-dont-call-it-annexation-kazakh-leader-says-of-crimea-a68473.
30 Nicholas Waller and Kostis Geropoulos. ‘Kazakhstan’s Tokayev Defends Countries’ Territorial Integrity at St. Petersburg Forum’, New Europe, June 21, 2022, https://www.neweurope.eu/article/kazakhstans-tokayev-defends-countries-territorial-integrity-at-st-petersburg-forum/.
31 Kamila Auyezova, ‘As Putin retreats in Ukraine, he is also losing Kazakhstan’, November 30, 2022. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/as-putin-retreats-in-ukraine-he-is-also-losing-kazakhstan/.
32 Assel Satubaldina, ‘President Tokayev Addresses CSTO Summit in Yerevan, Calls for Peace Talks between Russia and Ukraine’, The Astana Times, November 24, 2022. https://astanatimes.com/2022/11/president-tokayev-addresses-csto-summit-in-yerevan-calls-for-peace-talks-between-russia-and-ukraine/.
33 Nargis Kassenova, ‘Between Scylla and Charybdis: Kazakhstan Foreign Policy in Pursuit of a New Equilibrium’, The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, September 5, 2022, https://www.cacianalyst.org/resources/pdf/220905_FT-Kazakhstan.pdf.
34 President of Russia Official Web Site, ‘Заявление Президента Азербайджанской Республики, Премьер-министра Республики Армения и Президента Российской Федерации’, November 10, 2020. http://kremlin.ru/acts/news/64384.
35 ‘Opposition Groups Call For Armenia's Withdrawal From CSTO On Eve Of Yerevan Summit’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, November 23, 2022, https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-csto-protest-russia-azerbaijan/32144702.html.
36 Lillian Avedian, ‘Pashinyan says Russian military presence “threatens Armenia’s security”’, The Armenian Weekly, January 11, 2023, https://armenianweekly.com/2023/01/11/pashinyan-says-russian-military-presence-threatens-armenias-security/.
37 Tigran Grigoryan, ‘The War in Ukraine and the Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict: The West Needs To Re-evaluate Its Approach’, The Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, January 27, 2023. https://www.boell.de/en/2023/01/27/war-ukraine-and-armenian-azerbaijani-conflict-west-needs-re-evaluate-its-approach.
38 Kornely Kakachia, ‘Georgian Foreign Policy Strategy in Uncertain Times’, The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, September 5, 2022. https://www.cacianalyst.org/resources/pdf/220905_FT-Georgia.pdf; Kornely Kakachia, Anar Valiyev, Hanna Shelest, Bidzina Lebanidze, Maksym Khylko, Ahmad Alili, and Salome Kandelaki, Black Sea Security after the Russian invasion of Ukraine: Views from Ukraine, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, Policy Paper No. 31, Georgian Institute of Politics, September 2022, 11.
39 Giuliano Bifolchi, Russia confirms its strategic interests in Abkhazia and the South Caucasus, Geopolitical Report 26, no. 2 (2022). https://www.specialeurasia.com/2022/12/02/russia-abkhazia-caucasus/.
40 Kornely Kakachia and Shota Kakabadze, ‘Creeping Finlandization or Prudent Foreign Policy? Georgia’s Strategic Challenges amid the Ukrainian Crisis’. Policy Memo, Ponars Eurasia. March 28, 2022. https://www.ponarseurasia.org/creeping-finlandization-or-prudent-foreign-policy-georgias-strategic-challenges-amid-the-ukrainian-crisis/.
41 Kirill Ponomarev and Samantha Berkhead, ‘Thousands in Georgia Rally in Ukraine’s Support on Invasion Anniversary’, The Moscow Times, February 25, 2023, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/24/thousands-in-georgia-rally-in-ukraines-support-on-invasion-anniversary-a80336.
42 European Council. ‘Press statement by President Charles Michel following the trilateral meeting with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Pashinyan of Armenia, 31 August 2022’, Press release, August 31, 2022, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/cs/press/press-releases/2022/08/31/press-statement-by-president-charles-michel-following-the-trilateral-meeting-with-president-aliyev-of-azerbaijan-and-prime-minister-pashinayn-of-armenia-31-august-2022/; Council of EU, ‘Armenia: EU establishes a civilian mission to contribute to stability in border areas’, Press release, January 23, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/01/23/armenia-eu-sets-up-a-civilian-mission-to-ensure-security-in-conflict-affected-and-border-areas/.
43 Richard Weitz, Assessing the Collective Security Treaty Organization: Capabilities and Vulnerabilities (US Army War College Press, 2018).
44 Vitaly Gelfgat, ‘Central Asian States: Matching Military Means to Strategic Ends’, Connections 13, no. 3 (2014): 7.
45 Организация Договора о коллективной безопасности, ‘СТРАТЕГИЯ коллективной безопасности Организации Договора о коллективной безопасности на период до 2025 года’, October 10, 2016. https://odkb-csto.org/documents/statements/strategiya_kollektivnoy_bezopasnosti_organizatsii_dogovora_o_kollektivnoy_bezopasnosti_na_period_do_/#loaded.
46 András Rácz, Becoming a Military District: deepening military cooperation between Russia and Belarus (Publications Office of the European Union, 2022), https://www.academia.edu/73766089/Becoming_a_Military_District_Deepening_military_cooperation_between_Russia_and_Belarus.
47 ‘Armenian Pm Attacks Russian-Led Alliance At Summit In Yerevan’. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, November 24, 2022, https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-csto-pashinian-criticism/32145663.html.
48 ‘Armenia cancels military drills of Russian-led alliance'. Aljazeera, January 10, 2023. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/10/armenia-cancels-russian-led-military-drills-amid-conflict.
49 Charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Saint Petersburg, 7 June 2002, Vol. 2896, I-50517, no. 50517, p. 245, https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%202896/Part/volume-2896-I-50517.pdf.
50 Martin A. Smith, ‘Russia and Multipolarity since the End of the Cold War’, East European Politics 29, no. 1 (2013): 36–51.
51 Andrew Scobell, Edmund J. Burke, Cortez A. Cooper III, Sale Lilly, Chad J. R. Ohlandt, Eric Warner, and J.D. Williams, China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories, and Long-Term Competitions (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2020), https://doi.org/10.7249/RR27.
52 Célia Belin, James Goldgeier, Tanvi Madan, and Angela Stent. ‘China's Relations with Russia, India and Europe’. Policy Brief. Global China: Assessing China’s Role in the World, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/FP_20221220_china_russia_india_europe.pdf.
53 Pew Research Center, ‘Global Indicators Database: Chinese favourable views Towards Russia’. March 2022, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/database/indicator/27/country/cn.
54 Patricia M. Kim, ‘The Limits Of The No-Limits Partnership: China And Russia Can’t Be Split, But They Can Be Thwarted’, Foreign Affairs, February 28, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/limits-of-a-no-limits-partnership-china-russia.
55 Zenel Garcia and Kevin D. Modlin, ‘Sino-Russian Relations and the War in Ukraine’, Parameters 52, no. 3 (2022): 29, doi:10.55540/0031-1723.3165.
56 François Godement and Viviana Zhu. ‘Ukraine: Chinas Rock-Solid Pro-Russia Narative’, China Trends, March 2022, https://www.institutmontaigne.org/ressources/pdfs/publications/china-trends-12-ukraine-chinas-rock-solid-pro-russia-narrative.pdf.
57 The State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of China ‘Full text of Xi's speech at SCO Samarkand summit’, September 17, 2022. http://english.scio.gov.cn/topnews/2022-09/17/content_78424890.htm.
58 Jack Lau, ‘No nuclear weapons over Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping says, in clear message to Russia’, South China Morning Post, November 4, 2022, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3198505/no-nuclear-weapons-over-ukraine-chinese-president-xi-jinping-says-clear-message-russia.
59 Valeri Modebadze, ‘How the War in Ukraine affects Russian Economy and Sino-Russian Relations’, National Security and Future 3, no. 23: 19.
60 Edward Wong and Julian E. Barnes, ‘China Asked Russia To Delay Ukraine War Until After Olympics, U.S. Officials Say’, The New York Times, March 2, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china.html.
61 Zhao Long, ‘Time for Reinforcement of the Independent Value and Constructive Synergy of Sino-Russian Relations’ in Where do we Go from Here: Perspectives from Chinese think tanks, ed. Chen Dongxiao and Da Wei, A Joint Report of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies and Center for International Security and Strategy of Tsinghua University (Shanghai: Shanghai Institutes for International Studies and Center for International Security and Strategy of Tsinghua University, 2022): 18-22.
62 Hanns W. Maull, ‘Why China Isn’t Backing Away From Alignment With Russia’. The Diplomat, April 15, 2022, https://thediplomat.com/2022/04/why-china-isnt-backing-away-from-alignment-with-russia/.; Bradley A. Thayer, ‘Has Putin alienated China’s Xi with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?’, The Hill, March 3, 2022, https://thehill.com/opinion/international/596543-has-putin-alienated-chinas-xi-with-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/.
63 Zenel Garcia and Kevin D. Modlin, ‘Sino-Russian Relations and the War in Ukraine’, Parameters 52, no. 3 (2022), doi:10.55540/0031-1723.3165.
64 Brian G. Carlson, ‘The China Factor in Russia’s War in Ukraine’ in CSS Policy Perspectives 10, no. 13 (2022): 2.
65 Annabelle Timsit, Rachel Pannett, Nick Parker, and Kyle Rempfer, ‘Ukraine Live Briefing: Blinken Warns China Against Giving “Lethal Support” To Russia, As Leaders Meet In Munich’, The Washington Post, February 19, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/19/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/.; Thayer, Bradley A. ‘China’s Military Aid to Russia: Finally Breaking Decades of America’s Engagement Policy? The Epoch Times, February 21, 2023, https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-military-aid-to-russia-finally-breaking-decades-of-americas-engagement-policy_5071228.html.
66 Ministryo of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic Of China, ‘China’s Position On The Political Settlement Of The Ukraine Crisis’, February 24, 2023, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html.
67 Derek Grossman. ‘India’s Maddening Russia Policy Isn’t as Bad as Washington Thinks’, Foreign Policy, December 9, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/09/india-russia-ukraine-war-putin-modi-biden-sanctions-geopolitics/.
68 ‘India's Modi Tells Putin Now Is 'Not a Time For War'’, The Moscow Times, September 16, 2022, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/16/indias-modi-tells-putin-now-is-not-a-time-for-war-a78815.
69 Charu Sudan Kasturi, ‘Why India Can’t Quit Russian Oil’, Foreign Policy, July 13, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/13/india-russia-oil-imports-energy-ukraine-war/.
70 Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, ‘Russian support to India on Kashmir is rooted in history’.The Economic Times, January 20, 2020, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/russian-support-to-india-on-kashmir-is-rooted-in-history/articleshow/73411150.cms.
71 Jagannath Panda, ‘What does the Russia-Ukraine war mean for India in the long term?’, The Economic Post, December 7, 2022, https://trendsresearch.org/insight/what-does-the-russia-ukraine-war-mean-for-india-in-the-long-term/#_ftnref26.
72 Vasabjit Banerjee and Benjamin Tkach, ‘After Ukraine, Where Will India Buy Its Weapons?’, War on the Rocks, April 12, 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/after-ukraine-where-will-india-buy-its-weapons/.
73 Derek Grossman, ‘Modi’s Multipolar Moment Has Arrived’, Foreign Policy, June 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/06/modi-india-russia-ukraine-war-china-us-geopolitics-multipolar-quad/.
74 ‘Russia's losses’, https://www.minusrus.com/en.
75 Stijn Mitzet and Jakub Janovsky, ‘Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine’, Oryx, February 24, 2022, https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html.
Additional information
Funding
Notes on contributors
Zdeněk Kříž
Zdeněk Kříž, who graduated in political science and history in 1996, is a professor at Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University. He specialises in international security, history of armed conflicts, international security organisations, German and Czech security policies, and civil – military relations. His most recent publications include “German Troops in Afghanistan: Strategic Narratives on German Participation in Resolute Support”, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 2022 and “The security perception and security policy of the Czech Republic”, Defense & Security Analysis, 2021.