Estimated impact of rotavirus vaccine on hospitalizations and deaths from rotavirus diarrhea among children <5 in Asia

ABSTRACT

Background: Of the 215,000 global deaths from rotavirus estimated in 2013, 41% occur in Asian countries. However, despite a recommendation for global rotavirus vaccination since 2009, only eight countries in Asia have introduced the rotavirus vaccine into their national immunization program as of September 2017. To help policy makers assess the potential value of vaccination, we projected the reduction in rotavirus hospitalizations and deaths following a hypothetical national introduction of rotavirus vaccines in all countries in Asia using data on national-level rotavirus mortality, <5 population, rotavirus hospitalizations rates, routine vaccination coverage, and vaccine effectiveness.

Methods: To quantify uncertainty, we generated 1,000 simulations of these inputs.

Results: Our model predicted 710,000 fewer rotavirus hospitalizations, a 49% decrease from the 1,452,000 baseline hospitalizations and 35,000 fewer rotavirus deaths, a 40% decrease from the 88,000 baseline deaths if all 43 Asian countries had introduced rotavirus vaccine. Similar reductions were projected in subanalyses by vaccine introduction status, subregion, and birth cohort size.

Conclusion: Rotavirus vaccines will substantially reduce morbidity and mortality due to rotavirus infections in Asia.

KEYWORDS:

• Rotavirus vaccines
• rotavirus
• diarrhea
• Asia
• routine vaccination
• mortality

Declaration of interest

The authors have no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties. Peer reviewers on this manuscript have no relevant financial or other relationships to disclose.

The findings and conclusions of this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Supplemental data

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Additional information

Funding

The manuscript was not funded.