Challenges to the Sustainability of Space Exploration

Abstract

NASA has an elaborate process for identifying and mitigating technical risks in its human space exploration program. However, non-technical risks—political, economic, and societal—are not captured in this process. Such risks are large in number, diverse in character, often unpredictable, and can be impossible to prevent because they are beyond the space agency's control. NASA's mission directorates are responsible for long-term strategic planning, so despite the difficulties, the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) must direct its attention to long-term sustainability risks and the development of mitigation plans. This article surveys long-term risk factors and, where possible, makes suggestions on mitigation approaches for consideration by ESMD and NASA's top management.

Notes

^a Millions of then-year dollars; percentages rounded to nearest half-percent.

Source: NASA Historical Data Book, Vol. 2: Programs and Projects, 1958–1968, and Vol. 3: Programs and Projects, 1969–1978 (SP-4012, 1988).

^a Billions of current-year dollars.

Source: NASA Fiscal Year 2008 Budget Request Summary, February 5, 2007.

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Population projections in this section are taken from U.S. Census Bureau, “U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin,” 18 March 2004, http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/ (accessed February 2007).

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An especially persistent voice has been the Global Network Against Weapons and Nuclear Power in Space (http://www.space4peace.org/, accessed February 2007). See the website's critique of the Bush Administration's National Space Policy for a sample of the organization's overall views and the linkages it makes between space, arms control, and nuclear power. Also, a 20 April 2005 press release posted on the website claims that NASA and the Pentagon have been conducting surveillance and infiltration of the organization, both in the U.S. and Europe.

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For an excellent discussion of current global economic threats such as currency and debt crises, problems with the global reserve system, and unsustainable trade agreements – and why we should not be complacent about our ability to manage them—see Joseph E. Stiglitz, Making Globalization Work (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2006).

For example, see Booz-Allen & Hamilton, “U.S. Defense Industry Under Siege—An Agenda for Change,” 2000; James W. Canan, “The Changing Defense Industrial Base,” Aerospace America, August 2006, pp. 34–38; Robert J. Kuntz, “Aerospace Needs Knowledge-Management Tools,” Aviation Week & Space Technology, 3 September 2007, p. 74.

Jefferson Morris, “Northrop Grumman CEO Sugar stresses importance of space exploration,” Aerospace Daily & Defense Report 216:29, (10 November 2005).

For example, see Harris Poll, “Closing the Budget Deficit,” 10 April 2007. which implies that approximately half of the U.S. voting-age population, views the civil space program as either a waste of resources or simply a non-essential activity.

NASA had a very good media week in early December 2006 that demonstrated how positive exposure across programs can work. Three events got front-page coverage on the dates shown: the announcement of the lunar base plan (Dec. 5), the publication of research indicating flowing water on Mars (Dec. 7), and the first post-Columbia nighttime shuttle launch (Dec. 10). This was not a “slow news” week in other areas—for example, the long-anticipated Iraq Study Group report was released at this time. The NASA stories, as presented in the Washington Post, were as follows: Marc Kaufman, “NASA Plans Lunar Outpost; Permanent Base at Moon's South Pole Envisioned by 2024,” Tuesday, Dec. 5, page A01, above the fold; Rick Weiss, “Mars Photos May Indicate the Recent Flow of Water,” Thursday, Dec. 7, page A01, above the fold; “Discovery's Spectacular Show,” picture with caption, page A01, referring to story on page A20.

For example, Scott Horowitz, NASA Associate Administrator for Exploration Systems, speech at a Capitol Hill luncheon sponsored by the Coalition for Space Exploration, 14 September 2006.