Viewpoint: China and Space War

Abstract

In January of 2007, China knocked one of its weather satellites out of orbit, and threw the international community into panic. Some figured the satellite-killer test was the harbinger of a future war in space that could cripple a technology-dependent United States military. This viewpoint examines the possibilities of a Chinese assault on American satellites.

Notes

Report of the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization, 11 January 2001.

Grant H. Stokes, Curt von Braun, Ramaswamy Sridharan, David Harrison, and Jayant Sharma, “The Space-Based Visible Program” Lincoln Laboratory Journal 11: 2 (1998): 205–238.

There are few Western estimates on how reliable is the DF-21 missile. Some Western sources (see encyclopediaastronautica.com) list a failure rate of 3 out of the first 9 development launches but does not list other launches, either successful or failures.

Long March 3B Users Manual, China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology.

GPS Constellation Status for 1 January 2008, www.navcen.uscg.gov/navinfo/Gps/ActiveNanu.aspx (accessed on 1 January 2008).

Union of Concerned Scientists, see UCS_Satellite_Database, available at ucsusa.org (accessed 23 May 2008).

Ibid.

Ibid.

Ibid.

Geoffrey Forden, Sensitivity of GPS Coverage, Technical Appendix D, “Ensuring America's Space Security: Report of the FAS Panel on Weapons in Space” (Federation of American Scientists, October 2004).

Clay Wilson, Congressional Research Service, Network Centric Warfare: Background and Oversight Issues for Congress, 2 June 2004.

Geoffrey Forden, “Reducing a Common Danger: Improving Russia's Early-Warning System,” CATO Policy Analysis Paper 399: 3 (May 2001).

National Air and Space Intelligence Center, Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat, NASIAC-1031-0985-06, March 2006, p. 8.

J. C. Liou, N. L. Johnson, “Instability of the Present LEO Satellite Populations,” paper presented at the 36th Scientific Assembly of COSPAR, Beijing, China, 16–23 July, 2006, available at ntrs.nasa.gov/index.jsp?method-order&oaiID=20060024585 (accessed 15 November 2007).

Statement of Edward Morris, Director, Office of Space Commercialization, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, Hearing on Space and U.S. National Power, Before the Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, U.S. House of Representatives, 21 June 2006.

See rules of the road that are being developed by the Stimson Center, www.stimson.org/home.cfm (accessed 31 March 2008).