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Astropolitics
The International Journal of Space Politics & Policy
Volume 17, 2019 - Issue 1: Space Power and Security Trilemma in South Asia
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Articles

Strategic Landscape of South Asia and Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space

Pages 51-61 | Published online: 14 Feb 2019
 

ABSTRACT

South Asia is in part volatile because of the historical rivalry between India and Pakistan. After non-conventional and conventional military buildups in the past, an arms race in the domain of outer space is now a possibility. Space is an advantageous frontier for military uses. In this context, the consensus in international law defines space as a global commons to be used for peaceful purposes. Nonetheless, space powers, including India, engage in space militarization, which can lead to the weaponization of space. India is motivated in this regard by aspirations of regional hegemony and to balance its capabilities with respect to China in an effort to counter China’s increasing influence in South Asia. These developments posit adverse effects on the strategic equation in South Asia, leading to strategic instability, and can undermine nuclear deterrence and bring about a South Asian arms race in space. Moreover, the security dilemma in South Asia has prompted defensive and offensive reactions from rival states in the region, exacerbating repercussions on the South Asian strategic landscape. Analysis of the issues suggests that keeping space free from weaponization can alleviate strategic instability in South Asia.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. James C. Moltz, Asia Space Program: National Motivations, Regional Rivalries and International Risk (New York: Columbia University Press, 2011), 9.

2. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, “Indo-U.S. Nuclear Deal: Alerting Global Nuclear Order,” Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad Report, 2 (2008), http://issi.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/1302498143_17101197.pdf. (accessed 1 November 2018)

3. Rodney Jones, “Conventional Military Imbalance and Strategic Stability in South Asia,” SASSU Research Paper 1, March 2005. http://www.policyarchitects.org/pdf/Conventional_imbalance_RJones.pdf. (accessed 28 October 2018)

4. Sario Bano, “India and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) Membership,” Turkish Journal of International Relations 12, no. 2 (2015): 58–73.

5. Ibid.

6. Deepak Sharma, “Weaponization of Space and India’s Option,” Journal of Defense Studies, no. 4 (2010): 74-91. https://idsa.in/system/files/jds_4_3_dsharma.pdf (accessed 20 December 2018).

7. Mian Zahid Hussain and Raja Qaiser Ahmed, “Space Programs of India and Pakistan: Military and Strategic Installations in Outer Space and Precarious South Asian Regional Strategic Stability,” Space Policy (in press), 1-12https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.06.003.

8. Ibid.

9. Ajey Lele, “Militarization of Space,” Indian Defence Review 23, no. 2 (2011). http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/technologies-and-national-security/ (accessed 20 November 2018).

10. Walter A. McDougall, The Heavens and Earth: Apolitical History of Space Age (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985), 160–75.

11. United Nations Office for Outer Space, “COPOUS History,” http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/copuos/history.html (accessed 6 January 2018).

12. “Proposed Prevention of an Arms Race in Space (PAROS) Treaty,” Nuclear Threat Initiative. (updated 29 September 2017), https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/proposed-prevention-arms-race-space-paros-treaty/ (accessed 22 October 2018).

13. Sarah Estabrooks, “Preventing the Weaponization of Space: Option for Moving Forward,” Project Ploughshares (2003), 1–9. http://ploughshares.ca/wp-content/uploads/2003/03/brf033.pdf (accessed 23 October 2018).

14. “Proposed Prevention of an Arms Race in Space (PAROS).”

15. Ibid.

16. Michael O’ Hanlon, Technology Change and the Future Warfare (New Delhi, India: Manas Publications, 2005), 1.

17. Kenneth Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better (London, England: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 1981) https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/waltz1.htm (accessed 18 October 2018).

18. Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver, Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2003), 44–48.

19. Mohan Malik, “Balancing Act: China, India, U.S. Triangle,” World Affairs Journal (Spring 2016), http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/balancing-act-china-india-us-triangle (accessed 24 October 2018).

20. Henry Kissinger, The Nuclear Weapon and Foreign Policy (New York, NY: W. W. Norton, 1969).

21. Dan Smith, SIPRI Yearbook 2018: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security (Stockholm, Sweden: SIRPI, 2018): 8. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2018-06/yb_18_summary_en_0.pdf (accessed 20 December 2018)

22. Rayan Faith, “The Future of Space: Trouble on the Final Frontier,” World Affairs 175, no. 3 (September/October 2012): 82–87.

23. Raja Qaiser and Misbah Arif, “Space Militarization in South Asia,” Asian Survey 57, no. 5 (September/October 2017): 813–32.

24. Ajay Bohtan, “The Ineluctable Outer Space for India’s National Security,” Maritime Affairs: Journal of the National Maritime Foundation of India 9, no. 2 (2013): 42–61; also see Jones, “Conventional Military Imbalance.”

25. Sandra Erwin, “Defense Official: Trump is Serious about Creating a pace Force,” Space News (15 March 2018). http://spacenews.com/defense-official-trump-is-serious-about-creating-a-space-force/ (accessed 1 November 2018).

26. Ibid.

27. Ajay Lele, “India’s Space Security Policy: A Proposal,” Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis (2016)m https://idsa.in/system/files/policybrief/pb_indias-space-security-policy_alele.pdf. (accessed 1 November 2018).

28. Ibid.

29. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, “India’s Changing Policy on Space Militarization: The Impact of China’s ASAT Test,” India Review 10, no. 4 (2013): 354.

30. Lele, “India’s Space Security Policy.”

31. Sobia Paracha, “Military Dimensions of the Indian Space Program,” Astropolitics 11 no. 3 (2013): 156–86.

32. Sundara Vadlamudi, “Indo-US Space Cooperation: Poised for Take-Off,” The Nonproliferation Review 12, no. 1 (March 2005): 193-223.

33. Rajagopalan, ‘‘India’s Changing Policy,” 354.

34. Technology Perspective and Capability Roadmap (New Delhi, India: HQ Integrated Defense Staff, May 2010), 57.

35. Ibid.

36. Peter B. de Selding, “India Developing Means to Destroy Satellites,” Space News (4 January 2010), http://www.spacenews.com/military/india-developing-anti-satellite-technology.html (accessed 3 November 2018).

37. Qaiser and Arif, “Space Militarization in South Asia.”

38. V. Siddhartha, “Military Dimensions in Future of the Indian Presence in Space,” Journal of the United States Services Institution of India 130, no. 540 (April–June 2000): 249.

39. “Now, Space Cell to Keep an Eye on China’s Plans,” Times of India, 11 June 2008.

40. Farukh Amil, “Statement to Assembly’s Disarmament and International Committee,” Permanent Mission of Pakistan to the United Nations and Other International Organizations. http://pakistanmission-un.org/?p=2736 (accessed 17 January 2019).

41. Statement by Ambassador Tehmina Janjua, Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the United Nations, Geneva and Conference on Disarmament during the Thematic Debate of the First Committee on Outer Space (Disarmament Aspects) (19 October 2017), https://s3.amazonaws.com/unoda-web/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/19-Oct-Pakistan-OuterSpace.pdf (accessed 28 October 2018).

42. United Nations, “First Committee Seventy Second Session,” Press Release, 17 October 2018. https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/gadis3583.doc.htm (accessed 11 February 2019).

43. Ajay Lele, “Technologies and National Security,” Indian Defense Review 24, no. 1 (2009). http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/technologies-and-national-security/ (accessed 10 December 2018).

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