Outer Space and Strategic Stability in South Asia

ABSTRACT

Since the nuclearization of South Asia, in 1998, the relationship between two nuclear armed neighbors—India and Pakistan—is often explained and discussed in a Cold War context. Uneasy with the changed geostrategic realities of nuclear deterrence in South Asia, India is adopting limited conventional war strategies against Pakistan, pursuing Ballistic Missile Defense, and possibly adopting a first-strike strategy that shifts from India’s declared no-first-use policy of nuclear weapons. This study analyzes how Indian space-based capabilities augment its Ballistic Missile Defense program and its aspirations of a first-strike based on preemption. Subsequently, the article draws linkages between Indian space-based capabilities, including anti-satellite weapons, and impacts on strategic stability in South Asia.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

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2. Forrest E Morgan, Deterrence and First-Strike Stability in Space: A Preliminary Assessment (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corp., 2010), 13.

3. Herbert F. York, “Nuclear Deterrence and Military Use of Space,” Daedalus 114, no. 2 (Spring 1985): 21.

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8. Syed Muhammad Ali, “Indian Unsafeguarded Nuclear Reactor Program: The Role of Individuals, Politics and Technology,” in Indian Unsafeguarded Nuclear Program, eds. Adeela Azam, Ahmad Khan, Syed Muahmmad Ali and Sameer Ali Khan (Islamabad, Pakistan: Institute of Strategic Studies, 2017), 81.

9. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, “The Introduction of Ballistic Missile Defense in South Asia: Implications on Strategic Stability,” in Nuclear Learning in South Asia: The Next Decade, eds. Feroz Hasan Khan, Ryan Jacobs, and Emily Burke (Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, 2014), 121–32.

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18. Ibid.

19. Mian Zahid Hussain and Raja Qaiser Ahmed, “Space Programs of India and Pakistan: Military and Strategic Installations in Outer Space and Precarious South Asian Regional Strategic Stability,” Space Policy (in press), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.06.003.

20. York, “Nuclear Deterrence and Military Use of Space,” 21.

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23. Sameer Ali Khan, “Strategic Stability in South Asia,” Pakistan’s Contemporary Security: Issues and Discourses (Islamabad, Pakistan: Center for International Strategic Studies, forthcoming).

24. Khalid Banuri, “Missile Defences in South Asia: The Next Challenge,” South Asian Survey 11, no. 2 (2004): 194.

25. Land Warfare Doctrine 2018 Indian Army (New Delhi, India: Indian Army Headquarters, 2018), 25.