United States-China Space Offensive: A Dangerous Competition

ABSTRACT

With the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia in international politics, a new power politics has emerged between the Great Powers, which has extended the arenas of power competition. One such significant and emerging area for the strategic competition is space, as it holds the key to the projection and protection of all forms of power. The paper explores the contours of the emerging space competition between the United States and China and its ramifications. It argues that the emerging commercialization of space will cause legal, political, and environmental issues due to its satellite saturation, space debris, and high competition for space dominance. This competition encompasses various sectors including space tourism, space mining, exploration of Mars, and militarization, weaponization, and territorialization of space. This study attempts to critically view the power competition in space through the lens of offensive realism, proposing that the desire for ‘power in space for states’ hegemony has led to a security dilemma between United States and China, which has far-reaching consequences for international peace and stability.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

¹ Robert Jackson and Georg Sorenson, “Realism,” in Introduction to International Relations: Theories and Approaches (United Kingdom: Oxford University Press, 2013), 65–89.

² Ibid., 85.

³ Louis Brennan and Alessandra Vecchi, The Business of Space: The Next Frontier of International Competition (Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan Ltd., 2011).

⁴ Ibid., 11.

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⁶ James Moltz, “The Changing Dynamics of Twenty-First Century Space Power,” Journal of Strategic Security 12, no. 1 (2019): 15–43.

⁷ CTBTO, “9 July 1962 ‘Starfish Prime’, Outer Space,” https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/9-july-1962starfish-prime-outer-space (accessed February 28, 2022).

⁸ A Study of Lunar Research Flights, U.S. Air Force, https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB479/docs/EBB-Moon02.pdf.

⁹ Damon Coletta, review of the U.S. Presidents and the Militarization of Space, 1946–1967, by Sean N. Kalic, Journal of Cold War Studies, vol. 17, no. 4 (Fall 2015).

¹⁰ Ibid.

¹¹ Mathew Daniels, The History and Future of U.S.-China: Competition and Cooperation in Space, National Security Report (John Hopkins: Applied Physics Laboratory LLC., 2020).

¹² Ibid.

¹³ Dimitrios Stroikos, ”China, India in Space and the Orbit of International Society: Power, Status, and Order on the High Frontier,” (PhD Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2016).

¹⁴ Daniels, History and Future of U.S.-China.

¹⁵ Ibid.

¹⁶ Stroikos, China, India in Space.

¹⁷ Ibid.

¹⁸ Stroikos, China, India in Space.

¹⁹ Daniels, History and Future of U.S.-China.

²⁰ Ibid.

²¹ Ibid.

²² Brian Dunbar, “Biden-Harris Administration Extends Space Station Operations Through 2030,” NASA, December 31, 2021, https://blogs.nasa.gov/spacestation/2021/12/31/biden-harris-administration-extends-space-station-operations-through-2030/ (accessed February, 2022).

²³ VOA, “China to Send 3 Astronauts to New Space Station,” June 2, 2021, https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/china-to-send-3-astronauts-to-new-space-station/5912328.html (accessed June 2, 2021).

²⁴ CNN, “First Space Tourist: It was the Greatest Moment of My Life,” April 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/space-tourism-20-year-anniversary-scn/index.html#:~:text=(CNN)%20%E2%80%94%20On%20April%2030,the%20world's.

²⁵ The Conversation, “Space Tourism-20 years in the Making-is Finally Ready for Launch,” https://theconversation.com/space-tourism-20-years-in-the-making-is-finally-ready-for-launch-159606 (accessed April, 2021).

²⁶ CNBC, “Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin to Launch First Space Tourism Passengers on July 20 and Auction Off a Seat,” May 5, 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-space-tourism-flight-launches-july-20.html (accessed July 31, 2021).

²⁷ Namratta Goswami, “China in Space: Ambitions and Possible Conflict,” Strategic Studies Quarterly 12, no. 1 (2018): 74–97.

²⁸ Ibid.

²⁹ Ibid.

³⁰ Len Rosen, “Will China, India, and Japan Join Space Tourism Race?” 21st Century Tech Blog, December 27, 2017, https://www.21stcentech.com/china-india-japan-join-space-tourism-race/ (accessed June, 2021).

³¹ Paul Spudis, “Lunar Resources: Unlocking the Space Frontier,” Ad Astra 23, no. 2 (2011), https://space.nss.org/lunar-resources-unlocking-the-space-frontier/.

³² Tom Haxton, “What Resources Could We Find on the Moon? Here are Three Possibilities!,” herox, https://www.herox.com/blog/954-what-resources-could-we-find-on-the-moon-here-are (accessed February 28, 2022).

³³ Dennis Wingo, Moonrush: Improving Life on Earth with the Moon's Resources (Collector's Guide Publishing, Inc., 2004).

³⁴ Planetary Society, “Artemis, NASA's Moon Landing Program,” https://www.planetary.org/space-missions/artemis (accessed February 28, 2022).

³⁵ Ibid.

³⁶ Shawn Yuan, “Space: The New Frontier for US-China Rivalry,” Al-Jazeera, May, 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/13/space-the-newest-frontier-for-resurgent-chinese-pride (accessed June, 2021).

³⁷ Bloomberg, “China Confirms It Will Team Up With Russia to Explore the Moon,” January 28, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-28/china-confirms-it-will-team-up-with-russia-to-explore-the-moon (accessed February 28, 2022).

³⁸ CHINA BRIEFING, “China Proposes Establishing Moon-Based Special Economic Zone,” https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-proposes-establishing-moon-based-special-economic-zone/ (accessed June, 2021).

³⁹ Ibid.

⁴⁰ “Unlimited Resources from Space-Asteroid Mining,” YouTube Video, 1:45, Posted by “Kurzgesagt- In a Nutshell,” August 16, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8XvQNt26KI.

⁴¹ Goswami, “China in Space.”

⁴² Ibid.

⁴³ Ibid.

⁴⁴ Elizabeth Howell, “A Brief History of Mars Missions,” Space, February, 2021, https://www.space.com/13558-historic-mars-missions.html (accessed June, 2021).

⁴⁵ Yuan, “Space.”

⁴⁶ Smriti Mallapaty, “Mars mission is China's ‘First Step’ In Planetary Exploration,” Nature, December 24, 2021, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03849-w (accessed February 28, 2022).

⁴⁷ Ibid.

⁴⁸ Howard Kleinberg, “On War in Space,” Astropolitics 5, no. 1 (2007): 1–27, DOI: 10.1080/14777620701544600.

⁴⁹ Ahmad Khan, “Arms Race in Outer Space: A Paradigm Shift in International Security and its Implications for South Asia,” (PhD diss., National Defence University, 2020).

⁵⁰ Goswami, “China in Space.”

⁵¹ Moltz, “The Changing Dynamics of Twenty-First Century”.

⁵² US Government, Spacepower.

⁵³ Gene V. Milowicki and Joan Johnson-Freese, “Strategic Choices: Examining the United States Military Response to the Chinese Anti-Satellite Test,” Astropolitics 6, no. 1 (2008): 1–21.

⁵⁴ Ibid.

⁵⁵ Milowicki, “Strategic Choices.”

⁵⁶ Ibid.

⁵⁷ Stroikos, China, India in Space.

⁵⁸ Brennan, The Business of Space.

⁵⁹ Ibid.

⁶⁰ CHINA BRIEFING, “Moon-Based Special Economic Zone.”

⁶¹ Stroikos, China, India in Space.

⁶² Ibid.

⁶³ Ibid.

⁶⁴ Goswami, “China in Space.”

⁶⁵ Jack Detsch, “Pentagon Not Ready for Space Flight,” Foreign Policy, June 18, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/18/pentagon-not-ready-space-flight-militarization-sateliites/ (accessed May, 2021).

⁶⁶ Moltz, “The Changing Dynamics of Twenty-First Century.”

⁶⁷ Ibid.

⁶⁸ Goswami, “China in Space.”

⁶⁹ Wingo, Moonrush.

⁷⁰ Ahmad Khan, “Arms Race in Outer Space,” 45.

⁷¹ Joel Levine and Rudy Schild, Humans to Mars: The Greatest Adventure in Human History (Cosmology Science Publishers, 2010).

⁷² Ahmad Khan, “Arms Race in Outer Space.”

⁷³ Milowicki, “Strategic Choices.”

⁷⁴ Goswami, “China in Space.”

⁷⁵ Stroikos, China, India in Space.

⁷⁶ NDTV, “China To Build Space Centre, More Satellites For Pakistan,” January 28, 2022, https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/china-to-build-space-centre-more-satellites-for-pakistan-2735897 (accessed February 28, 2022).

⁷⁷ Morris, Chris, “Space Junk Crashes into the Moon at 5,800 Mph,” Fortune, March 4, 2022, https://fortune.com/2022/03/04/rocket-hits-moon-space-junk/ (accessed May 5, 2022).

⁷⁸ Politico, “Biden Space Advisers Urge Cooperation with China,” December 12, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/20/biden-china-space-448529 (accessed February 28, 2022).