Red Seas: A Study in Revolutionary Contagion

Abstract

This article tries to identify the key elements that determine the success or failure of revolutionary contagion processes. Using three case studies of mutinies that took place in the first half of the twentieth century aboard fleets operating in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean, it concludes that the result of the revolutionary contagion depends mainly on the quality of the ideological and organizational effort undertaken by the primary revolution and its affiliated revolutionaries in the target society. A successful process of revolutionary contagion, however, is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the victory of the revolution itself. The 2011 Libyan rebellion is used to test these findings.

Keywords:

• revolutionary contagion
• mutinies
• Potemkin
• French Black Sea fleet
• Greek navy
• Comintern
• Libya

Acknowledgements

The author is grateful to Dr Sauveur Pierre Étienne (École des hautes études en sciences sociales) and Stéfanie von Hlatky-Udvarhelyi (Centre for International Peace and Security Studies) for their helpful suggestions.

Notes

¹ The three volumes of this novel were first published in Greek between 1960 and 1965. The 1971 French translation has been recently reprinted by Seuil and is easily available.