Simplistic Explanations are the Problem: Crime, Homicide, and the Zimring–Hawkins Proposition

Abstract

In a popular statement in 1997, Zimring and Hawkins argued that crime was not an important determinant of levels of lethal violence in the USA. Zimring and Hawkins’ proposition is evaluated using multiple regression analyses of homicide using state‐, city‐, and county‐level data. The results indicate that there is a consistent crime effect on homicide rates at all three levels of analysis. More important than falsifying their hypothesis, we contend that overly simplistic notions about crime and justice distract the public and policy‐makers from the complex economic and structural conditions that contribute to high levels of homicide.

Keywords:

• Zimring–Hawkins Proposition
• Lethal Violence
• Dependent, Control, and Crime Variables
• Where Crime is Rooted

Notes

[1] Gordon Hawkins passed away in March 2004 and while we challenge the thesis presented in Crime is Not the Problem, we acknowledge his important contributions to the discipline of criminology.

[2] In 2006, the Federal Bureau of Investigation reported that violent index offenses had increased by 2.5% in 2005, but there was a decrease in property crimes over the same period. Whether crime rates will continue to oscillate or achieve some type of equilibrium is a much‐debated issue (see Blumstein & Wallman, 2000).

[3] In county‐ and city‐level data where there were no homicides, a value of 1 was added prior to the log‐transformation of the data.

[4] One important question is whether these findings are a consequence of the number of offenders in the community. In order to explore this issue more closely, we conducted a number of parallel analyses using the state‐level probation and parole data. We could not, however, find a significant association between the rate of probationers or parolees in the state population and state homicides. Similar data for cities and counties were not available.

[5] There is some variation in rural counties as well. A review of the 2004 Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI, 2005) statistics revealed that the number of murders increased by 23% between 2003 and 2004 in non‐metropolitan counties (with less than 10,000 residents).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Rick Ruddell

Rick Ruddell is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at California State University, Chico.

Noelle E. Fearn

Noelle E. Fearn is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science/Criminal Justice Program at Washington State University.