http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4060-7168
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ABSTRACT
Romania is the 10th largest economy in EU-28 and also one of the fastest growing economies in the region. An end-use energy demand model is developed for Romania to assess energy requirement by sector and by end-use for 2015–2050 period. Industry would surpass residential sector as the largest final energy-consuming sector from 2035 onwards. Services sector would exhibit the fastest growth of energy consumption. Despite expected decline in country’s population, demand for electricity would grow in the future driven by increased household income and expanded services sector, which is relatively electricity intensive. Still, Romania’s per capita electricity consumption would be about half of the EU-28 average. At the end-use level, thermal processes in industry, space heating in the residential and services, and road passenger travel in transport sector would be dominant throughout the study period. Improvement of energy efficiency in the heating system exhibits the highest potential of energy saving.
Acknowledgements
The authors would also like to thank country experts from Ministry of Environment Waters and Forest (MEMW) and Ministry of Energy (MoE) of Romania, for their constructive comments and invaluable insights in developing end-use energy demand (EEDA) model for Romania. The authors are thankful to two anonymous reviewers, the associate editor and the editor in chief for their helpful comments and suggestions. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
ORCID
Sunil Malla http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4060-7168
Notes
* An earlier version of this paper has been published as a World Bank Policy Research Working Paper (Malla and Timilsina Citation2016), which is freely available to download at http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/982171467993734307/pdf/WPS7697.pdf.
1 Different modeling techniques include mathematical programming, econometrics, statistical and accounting methods, and network analysis. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP), Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Enduse, TIMES/MARKAL, National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), ODYSSEE and Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) are some of the commonly used end-use energy demand models. See Capros et al. (Citation2014) for the description of seven large-scale energy-economy EU models (PRIMES, GEM-E3, TIMES-PanEu, NEMESIS, WorldScan, Green-X and GAINS) used to assess European decarbonisation pathways. Likewise, Novosel et al. (Citation2015) use agent-based tool (MATSim) and EnergyPLAN for transport energy demand modeling. For industrial energy demand models, see Edelenbosch et al. (Citation2017).
2 The EEDA model development is part of the ‘Romania: Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program’ conducted by Ministry of Environment and Climate Change of Romania (now, Ministry of Environment, Water and Forest) and the World Bank (World Bank Citation2015). The model is built using MS Excel and its most important features include transparency, flexibility and easy to use.
3 Most of the figures and tables in Section 5 are similar to those that are presented in our working paper version.
4 These studies include EU’s energy, transport and GHG emissions trends to 2050 (EU Citation2016), Romania’s Ministry of Environment and Climate Change’s sixth national commutation (MECC Citation2013)] and the National Commission for Prognosis (NCP)’s energy balance forecast (NCP Citation2015).
5 Despite declining population during the 2013–2050 period, demand for heating energy is projected to increase mainly due to increase in size of living floor space in the country. For example, between 2013 and 2050, living floor space is projected to increase on average by 0.3% per year.