Risk factors and protective factors: a two-sided dynamic approach to violence risk assessment

Abstract

The complementary use of risk- and protective factors has been one of the major advances in violence risk assessment in recent years. The present study investigates the value of this two-sided approach. The HCR-20 and the SAPROF were coded retrospectively for a sample of 188 patients with a history of violent or sexual offending, discharged from forensic psychiatric treatment. No moderating effect was found for type of offending history. The combined evaluation of risk- and protective factors was found to have good predictive validity for violent recidivism after treatment. Especially, the dynamic factors of both tools proved good predictors of (desistance from) violence at short- and long-term follow-up. Protective factors showed to provide incremental predictive validity over the use of risk factors alone. In addition, evidence was found for an interaction effect between risk- and protective factors. Implications of these findings for treatment planning and risk management are discussed.

Keywords:

• risk assessment
• protective factors
• dynamic factors
• HCR-20
• SAPROF
• desistance